Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana Championship preview and best bets
Golf expert Ben Coley looks for his fourth PGA Tour winner of the year with a range of each-way selections for the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Golf betting tips: Corales Puntacana Championship
2pts e.w. Nate Lashley at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1.5pts e.w. Brian Stuard at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Nick Taylor at 50/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Martin Kaymer at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Seth Reeves at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pt e.w. Sean O'Hair at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Sitting opposite the WGC-Match Play, rather than a full-field event, the Corales Puntacana Championship has attracted a decent field. Defending champion Joel Dahmen will no doubt be disappointed he wasn't able to solidify the top-64 spot he climbed to when winning here – there's are titles nobody really wants to defend – but a return to the scene of his emotional success isn't the worst consolation prize, and he's vying for favouritism with Jhonattan Vegas.
Right behind them we've players who've contended this season, the likes of Adam Svensson, Matthias Schwab and Sahith Theegala, and we've further potential courtesy of the Hojgaard twins and Alex Smalley, the latter well-backed already. This is better than the Puerto Rico Open, where Ryan Brehm was a 66/1 winner, and with a relatively calm forecast the winner may come from somewhere towards the front of the betting.
The course itself is something of a contradiction, as it's a long par 72, resort in style and with some of the widest fairways around, and yet it's been the domain of the shorter, straighter hitter for the most part. Above all else though there's no substitute for a touch of class, a comment which replies to all four winners since this became a PGA Tour event. It might feel like a stretch to include Brice Garnett, whose only victory came here in 2018, but he's better than most you see in these opposite fields.
Vegas would get my token vote at the head of the betting, having had his pocket picked in Puerto Rico last year. He's the third-ranked member of the field, knows he needs to kick on to achieve his 2022 goal of making the Presidents Cup team, and has for a while now been hitting his ball to a very high standard. If his short-game passes the test, he ought to be bang there on Sunday.
Get back on the Lash
However, I keep going back to the roll-of-honour and generally want to side with neat-and-tidy players who are that bit more capable around these tricky paspalum greens. There is enough breeze over the first two days to ensure those skills retain their relevance, and NATE LASHLEY might capitalise to win here for a second time.
Lashley won by a stroke when this was a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2018, and has since kept his head above water on the PGA Tour. He was a brilliant winner of the 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic, taking advantage of a weak field to win by six, and for all he's never been especially reliable, he has been very good when presented with a winning opportunity.
Here at Corales Puntacana, where he was fourth in 2020 and a solid 28th following a strong start last year, it's easy to envisage him being right in the mix. He wasn't far off that in Puerto Rico, climbing to seventh after an excellent weekend's golf, and that came on the back of some quality ball-striking which went unrewarded in the Honda Classic.
Pleasingly, Lashley defied a slow start to finish 27th on his debut in the Valspar Championship last week, gaining strokes off the tee, with his approaches and with putter. The latter has typically been a strength and looks to be firing again after a quiet run, so all aspects of his game look in shape.
He might not be quite as talented as some of those around him in the betting, but he knows how to win and he's extremely comfortable here. That counts for a lot, and at 28/1 and bigger he looks the most solid option having been greenside with the champagne when his friend Brehm won a couple of weeks ago.
Walking through our seaside holes is a nice experience 🏌🏻.📍Corales Golf Course . pic.twitter.com/j5MUWBZmVW
— coraleschamp (@CoralesChamp) December 11, 2021
Unlike Lashley, BRIAN STUARD hasn't yet been much of a factor here, but he started well when 33rd in 2020 and returns now in better form than prior to three previous appearances.
Ignoring that peculiar PLAYERS Championship, where Stuard was on the wrong side of the draw, his last 15 rounds have been par or better, and he arrives here off four scores in the sixties for 16th place at the Valspar.
During this run, which includes a top-10 finish in the Honda Classic, Stuard has got his approach work back to the levels which saw him bag four top-15 finishes in five starts last summer, and his short-game looks as sharp as ever now the putter has improved for leaving the west coast.
A former winner in New Orleans, Stuard is another who is more than capable of picking up silverware at this level and he's very similar in profile to the likes of Garnett and Graeme McDowell, former winners here. Like those two, he boasts an excellent record at El Camaleon where he's twice been second, and it could pay to overlook what appears a modest record at this course as it's one that really should suit.
Taylor made for this assignment
Greyson Sigg and Austin Smotherman are two likeable rookies, the latter a short-game away from doing serious damage, but experience often counts for plenty in these events and NICK TAYLOR can put his to use.
The Canadian is another who gets by on doing the basics well rather than anything explosive, and he's a two-time PGA Tour winner including by the sea at Pebble Beach, where McDowell, Dahmen and Lashley have all been really effective.
That plus several decent efforts at El Camaleon suggests he should be comfortable on his debut here, just as he was when fifth on his first look at the similar test in Puerto Rico, and having made eight of his last nine cuts he brings a level of consistency which few can match.
It's not as if he's been way down the field, either, with 33rd in the AmEx, 30th at Torrey Pines, 14th at Pebble Beach, 16th in the Honda and 32nd at Bay Hill all really strong form lines at this level, and he was on course for something similar before an awful final round in the Valspar having entered it in 34th place.
Sunday's effort is a bit of a concern but he'd hit the ball really nicely in rounds one, two and three, and I can't see why he should be outside the top 20 in the betting here. Taylor deserves a little more respect at what should be a nice course for him and prices north of 33/1 represent solid each-way value.
It was a rough Sunday on the course but much bigger things this past week. Able to raise some money for Hayden and Dayton with 12 birdies for the week. Wishing them a full recovery and thoughts are with everyone impacted by this terrible tragedy.
— Nick Taylor (@ntaylorgolf59) March 21, 2022
MARTIN KAYMER also struggled over the weekend of the Valspar but he was 10th at halfway on just his second start of the year, and I'm willing to give him another chance at 66/1 in places, with 50/1 also fine.
The German is a two-time major champion who has also won The PLAYERS and a World Golf Championship event so his credentials are there for all to see and while he's no longer the same player, I do think he's being underestimated.
Over the last two years he's had a number of chances to win and he's typically been much shorter in the betting that McDowell on the DP World Tour, with good reason. Since the beginning of 2020, Kaymer leads their head-to-head 11-4, and the German was five shots better than his fellow former US Open winner over the first two rounds of the Valspar last week.
When last they played the same DP World Tour event, McDowell was more than double the odds of Kaymer so while you have to respect his form at this course, I believe the prices underline the fact that Kaymer is being underrated by the layers. Take Wyndham Clark as another example – Kaymer was half the price of Clark last week, he beat Clark last week, and he's now a bigger price than Clark this week.
It's probably because Kaymer concedes course experience but that's not too big a concern and with his ball-striking very good for the most part at Copperhead, another step forward is expected. He has to do better around the greens and of course has questions to answer in the mix now, but I'm adamant that 66/1 is the wrong price.
Who are the best value outsiders?
Justin Lower's ball-striking has caught the eye lately and so too have David Lingmerth and Kiradech Aphibarnrat, but I'll sign off with SETH REEVES and SEAN O'HAIR to small stakes.
Reeves is one of if not the biggest hitter in this field and perhaps he can emulate Brehm in blasting his way to a PGA Tour breakthrough at a course where the similarly long Tyler McCumber was runner-up to Swafford.
He's certainly got the course form, having been third and 18th in two visits with all eight rounds under-par, and the latter saw him lead the field in greens hit. That was in 2019, and Reeves had missed seven cuts in seven starts to begin the campaign, his performance here in the Dominican Republic the standout in a largely miserable year.
Given that third place on the Korn Ferry Tour was also his best finish that year, he's come alive when returned to Corales Puntacana and he might just do it again. The fact he's managed two top-10 finishes in the Sanderson Farms hints that he might just be a horses-for-courses type, and 29th place on his sole start at El Camaleon is another positive.
O'Hair meanwhile was 14th here in 2020, having been bang in the mix throughout, and ninth place in last year's Barracuda again showed what he can do when dropping a level.
More recently he was 16th at Pebble Beach then sixth on the Korn Ferry Tour, since which he's missed two cuts in events he likes in Florida. However, the first was at a brutal Bay Hill and the second came by a single shot at the Valspar, where he bounced back from a poor start to post a bogey-free 67 on Friday.
That should put him back on track and with form in the Bahamas, not to mention 12th place behind McDowell in the 2010 US Open at Pebble Beach, this one-time star in the making might have a big week in him at a big price.
Posted at 1212 GMT on 22/03/22
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