Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Bermuda Championship

1.5pts e.w. Austin Eckroat at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Lee Hodges at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.25pts e.w. John Parry at 45/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Lucas Glover at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Svensson at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.75pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 200/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

There is no active PGA Tour stop with a roll-of-honour quite like that of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, the once-opposite event that still somehow masquerades as one despite playing an important role in the end-of-season scrap for precious FedExCup points.

This is a tournament whose very first edition was won by a player who was completing his comeback from the driving yips. Its second saw a short-hitting veteran defy odds of 100/1 to beat a powerhouse who'd go on to win two majors. Three years ago, Camilo Villegas (150/1) miraculously won his first title in almost a decade, then Rafael Campos (250/1), a 36-year-old veteran who had missed 12 cuts in 13 starts, somehow became a PGA Tour champion. His successor was Adam Schenk (100/1), whose 243rd PGA Tour start was his first victory.

There is no barrier to success here at Port Royal, where major champions used to gather for the Grand Slam of Golf but the lesser lights now fight for something more substantive. Providing you can get into the field, you can win. And there is some logic to just why that is: this golf course is very short and exposed to the elements, rare factors that we saw at play during last year's final round; this tournament meanwhile has typically failed to attract strong fields, as the best players simply don't need to fly three hours from Florida for what some of them would see as little potential reward.

We don't have many examples to call upon from this event specifically, but better players would certainly have removed a good deal of this volatility. Patrick Reed was firmly inside the world's top 30 when finishing runner-up five years ago, while in 2023 both Alex Noren (2nd) and Adam Scott (5th) were looking to secure places in the top 50 come year's end. Still, Port Royal is a course which asks different questions, particularly when it's as windy as forecast this week.

It says much about the ease with which he's taken to life as a professional that Ben James, not yet five months out of college, is already the best player since Scott to have come to Bermuda and he does so with his own list of priorities, first among which is to become a PGA Tour champion. Close behind that is likely to move into the 51-60 slots on the FedExCup Fall standings, which would earn him starts in both the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational next year and, at 62nd, he's one big week away.

James has four top-fives in his last six starts including each of the last three, and they've come at wide-open courses like Black Desert and Puntacana, and tighter, tree-lined ones like The Cliffs and Sedgefield. He would rank inside the top 20 for strokes-gained off-the-tee and strokes-gained approach had he played enough rounds to qualify. There will undoubtedly be those who want to take the opportunity to back the favourite based on the certainty that he won't need to be playing in events like this for much longer.

I'd rather look further down the betting and in doing so, my focus will be on players who are largely accurate, whose wedge play is excellent, and who are comfortable in the wind. Short irons in particular are important at what's one of the very shortest courses on the PGA Tour. Seamus Power is the one relatively fancied winner of this event and that's his main strength, although it must be acknowledged that last year's one-two ranked 145th and 147th for the season in proximity from 50-125 yards. That's the Butterfield, for you.

Chris Kirk and Andrew Novak appeal most among the favourites as they're both good wedge players with form in the wind but if we're going to chance a duo from the bottom 10 of the 2026 putting stats, in these conditions I'd rather it be LUCAS GLOVER and ADAM SVENSSON.

It's going to be really windy throughout this year's renewal, at least according to the latest forecast, and there's an argument that such conditions could further randomise putting while accentuating the skill of the very best ball-strikers in the field.

If that's the case, Kirk's good form should continue on his first try here and Novak could well contend as he did in 2024, but the blend of short prices, strong wind and one glaring weakness in their respective games simply doesn't add up.

Glover on the other hand is my favourite bet, as he has the same weakness but can be backed at four-times the price having seemingly tailed off since the summer, when finishing in the top-five in successive tournaments. The ISCO Championship in particular was a golden opportunity missed; he was one of my favourite each-way bets of the entire year (2pts each-way at 40/1) and traded odds-on, but succumbed to back-nine pressure on Sunday.

Soon after that we saw Glover regress but his long-game sparked back into life last time out and that's absolutely key. It wasn't enough to earn him a set of weekend tee-times in Utah, but the former US Open champion was back peppering pins with his irons in the way we'll need him to. Like Kirk, he's a supreme wedge player, reflected by DataGolf's more granular approach play tables as well as the PGA Tour's proximity stats.

When those approaches are firing, Glover only needs a half-decent putting week to be dangerous at the right level and while he hasn't had one of those since the John Deere Classic, he was better in a second-round 65 last time. Before that, he was actually fine for three rounds of the Biltmore, though Saturday's was admittedly catastrophic. Avoiding that killer round, which makes up two of his last six, will be vital to his chances.

Ultimately, much will depend on controlling your ball in the wind and I'll take my chances with the putter, especially as Glover's record of three cuts made in three starts at Port Royal is better than it first appears. He was fifth through 54 holes on his last visit two years ago, he'd carded two 65s a year earlier, and he made a nice start on debut in 2022 as well.

It's definitely a suitable course for the veteran and while he doesn't have stacks of winning form in the wind, his Open record is sneaky-good, and he's gone close a couple of times in what was the Honda Classic. That's among the best form guides to this and is played at an exposed golf course in PGA National, where game management is key.

An almost permanent fixture towards the top of the stats which measure approach proximity from 50-125 and 125-150 yards, he's got a really good make-up for this, class in abundance, and would slot in nicely as a 100/1 winner of this tournament. Perhaps compensation for the ISCO will arrive this weekend.

Svensson has also suffered badly on the greens this year but his iron play has caught fire lately, enough to rank eighth and fifth in strokes-gained approach in his last couple of starts.

A former champion by the sea at the RSM Classic, Svensson has also won in the Bahamas and played well in Hawaii, while he's actually a course winner at PGA National albeit at Qualifying School more than a decade ago.

This sort of test certainly suits and he showed hints of that when 22nd here on debut, lying 10th through 54 holes, so the question is more to do with the state of his game right now and on that there are mixed messages.

On the one hand, Svensson is way down the FedExCup standings having failed to crack the top 20 anywhere so far this year, but on the other he's started this second phase of the season with eight solid rounds at an average of 68.13, his irons have really caught fire, and he's taking an effective drop in grade.

He's a short, straight hitter whose 50-125-yard approach statistics having improved over the last couple of seasons, and he'd actually started to look much better with the putter until a backwards step in Utah. Hopefully that was a blip rather than him reverting to type and if it was, he might just be capable of contending as he did throughout much of a breezy, difficult renewal in 2021.

That one went the way of Australia's Lucas Herbert and I am going to chance his compatriot CAM DAVIS at massive odds.

He's been catching the eye for a little while now, ever since finishing 21st in the Scottish Open to end a miserable run without a top-60 finish all season. Davis hasn't had another in five subsequent starts, but on four occasions his approach play has been good, very good at times, and that bodes well as he tries to find his way back to form.

Last time out in Utah he missed the cut by one after a second-round 70 which was error-free bar one hole, where a wild drive saw him run up an eight. That has been the issue for Davis and there's clearly a risk he fires one or two into the ocean here, but there's also some hope that conditions and the nature of this course make it less golf swing, more golf, and that he's under less pressure to reach for driver anyway.

Davis actually gained strokes off the tee in Utah, the first time he's done so since January, and this classy operator might just find sanctuary in Bermuda. His missed cut here in 2019 isn't a worry as he was badly out of sorts then too, and while his form reads very poorly, there are many more positives to be taken from his profile than anyone else around him in the betting.

Davis won the Rocket Mortgage out of the blue when first breaking through on the PGA Tour, won back that title at big odds, and had first made a name for himself as a shock winner of the Australian Open. He has some nice form by the coast in Hawaii, top-10s at the Honda, Pebble Beach and the RBC Heritage, and is the type I could see becoming the latest shock champion in an event where most players in the field have their demons to overcome.

Back up the betting, the one I've wrestled with is Luke Clanton, whose closing 62 last time saw him finish seventh.

That came courtesy of world-class iron play and a step up with the putter, but I'm wary of the contrast between Utah and Bermuda, possibly the most stark in all of golf. I do recall Clanton wowing his playing partners with a few bullet irons in the RSM Classic while still an amateur and his Florida background explains that, but he's still young and raw and I'm just not sure that's what we're after.

Experience might be key in the conditions and I could see JOHN PARRY relishing this.

At 89th in FedExCup points, Parry has done really well since earning status via the Race to Dubai last year. It's been a remarkable late-career transformation for a player who was on the now-defunct EuroPro satellite tour not so very long ago, but has worked his way back up the ladder and reached a level he surely thought was beyond him at times.

Now on the PGA Tour he's on track to retain status and that's largely because he's consistent and knows how to grind. Parry has only been in contention once, but he's only missed four cuts in 24 starts, a deeply impressive return which has seen him collect points at a steady rate. Two or three more cuts made by the end of the season and he'll be returning for another crack in 2027.

But he might just be able to aim higher than that here in Bermuda. It's no coincidence that his one chance to win came by the coast in Puerto Rico, nor that he'd made such a fine start in Hawaii. Ever since he contended for the Dunhill Links right at the beginning of his DP World Tour career, he has been really good under links conditions or by the sea: two top-threes at St Andrews, fifth in the Scottish Open, first in Mauritius and 16th in the Open make up five of his top-10 performances from an OWGR points perspective.

Also third in Aberdeen and fourth in Madeira, Parry knows how to control his ball flight in the wind and as an accurate driver who ranks inside the top 10 in strokes-gained approach among this field, he should find that this course and these conditions play to his strengths.

Parry has gone 22-58-23 so far in the FedExCup Fall, his one modest effort coming at that wide-open, expansive golf course in Utah where the job was to thrash driver and make birdies. Here, it's to flight it down and stay out of trouble, things he does brilliantly. Underrated in the betting, he looks excellent value and is one of the most likely contenders in this wide-open field.

Eck of a bet

Among the handful of players ahead of Parry in those approach play stats is AUSTIN ECKROAT, and he too makes plenty of appeal.

Eckroat ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach when 24th last time out and that's generally been the way he's hinted at his two previous wins, the first of which came at the aforementioned PGA National. Just as he had there, Eckroat impressed again when victorious in Mexico at around this time of year in 2024, and a third title seems perfectly possible this week.

He's admittedly not been as accurate off the tee this season, which goes some way to explaining why he's outside the top 100 in FedExCup points, but Eckroat has tidied up the driver lately too and really the only problem last time out was that he produced his worst putting display of the entire campaign.

Known as a tinkerer, he'll perhaps turn up here with a different putter in the bag; hopefully that'll provoke a return to the levels we saw throughout the first two-thirds of the year, during which time his putting stats were up nicely on 2025.

Eckroat was 22nd here on debut five years ago and returns after a four-year absence needing to build on a quietly promising run of form, but remember his stacking exemptions from a double-win season two years ago mean he's exempt through 2027 and therefore under less pressure than most who are outside of that all-important top 100.

He ought to be able to focus on the here and now and as an Oklahoma man, the forecast winds should be in his favour. Among those who are up towards the head of the betting, he was the first name on the list as he's a young golfer I like, one who has been very dangerous at this sort of level when faced with conditions which place an emphasis on accuracy both off the tee and with the second shot.

Max McGreevy also hails from Oklahoma and he was in the mix for us here last year, despite having been on the wrong side of a significant draw bias. McGreevy rediscovered some form in Utah last time and has correlating form at the Cognizant and the RSM, but 33/1 about a longstanding maiden who has arguably regressed over the past 12 months and ranks 127th in FedExCup points looks anything but a gift.

The same goes for youngster David Ford after a big market reaction to his effort at a course he evidently loves last time, so I'll side with LEE HODGES instead.

Hodges is the man on the bubble at 100th in FedExCup points and this is a stress he knows enough about, as he wound up in 101st last year, missing full status by the most slender of margins despite storming to fourth place in the RSM Classic.

That was a gutsy effort from a talented player and I hope we might see him produce something similar here in Bermuda, where admittedly he's been down the field in both starts. The first though came in 2021, right at the beginning of his PGA Tour career, then last year's return coincided with a run of poor form hence that plight he faced.

This time, Hodges seems in good nick and has done ever since finishing third in the John Deere Classic. He subsequently made three cuts in five but it could so easily have been all five, as the exceptions were both by a shot due to poor putting. Then, last time out in the no-cut Baycurrent he finished mid-pack, improving slightly on his debut at that golf course.

At ninth in driving accuracy, Hodges is one of the very straightest in this field and that does tend to be a very good place to start in Bermuda, while I love the fact that he has a fine record in the RSM Classic and the Honda, a couple of top-10s in the Sony Open, and even won a small, unofficial event at Sea Island a few years ago where he beat Harris English and Jim Furyk among others.

Hodges has a top-10 finish in the Texas Open where it's often breezy and finished 12th in the Scottish Open on his first trip to the UK, so I don't think the forecast will be an excuse. He took his chance really well in the 3M Open three years ago, winning by seven, and there have been plenty of hints lately that a second PGA Tour title may not be too far away.

Certainly, he's one I can see making a move towards the end of the season and he'd be a much shorter price were this field to have assembled at Sea Island instead. Port Royal should be no less suitable for a player who ranks inside the top 20 from both 100-125 and 125-150 yards in recent months, and this time he can show it.

There are any number of alternatives for those keen to bet solely at big prices, such as left-hander Paul Peterson whose approach play from inside 150 yards is a real strength. He has form by the sea (5th Puerto Rico, 10th Hawaii, 19th Scotland) and is another who should arrive here feeling like the course and the forecast improve his chances of competing with the likes of James at the head of the market.

Players like him and Tyler Duncan haven't made much of an impact on the Korn Ferry Tour, where threatening sub-60 rounds to keep pace with the latest wave of young talent is not easy. It's under conditions like these that they have to put their precision, patience and experience to use and whether those two or any one of my selections does that, the advice is to look far beyond the potential world-beater this time.

Posted at 11:00 BST on 20/10/25

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