Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Bank of Utah Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Bank of Utah Championship

2.5pts e.w. Harry Hall at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

1.5pts e.w. Kristoffer Ventura at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Pierceson Coody at 50/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Haotong Li at 60/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Denny McCarthy at 90/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Patrick Rodgers at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

"It's fairway or lava. There is really no in between."

That's a line that could so easily have been lifted from Kyle Porter's Normal Sport newsletter, but came instead from Pierceson Coody during last year's Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort. The name of the golf course says a lot on its own: this is desert golf in Utah, and if you happen to miss the grass laid down across this ancient field of black lava rock, you're likely going to have to hit the previous shot again.

If that sounds fearsome, then scoring and statistics paint a very different picture. Two renewals so far have been won in 23- and 22-under and this place ranks as the easiest driving course on the PGA Tour. It's among the easiest five of the current crop of tournament venues in overall scoring and the two champions so far have combined for 48 birdies and five eagles. This isn't a place to accrue pars and expect to achieve much at all.

Notably, inaugural champion Matt McCarty ended the following season ranked 21st in birdie average alongside Rico Hoey, who finished runner-up to Michael Brennan last year. Pierceson Coody was a lofty fourth in those standings and was tied for third behind Michael Brennan, who right now ranks 23rd. These statistics are caveated by their rawness, thereby penalising tougher schedules, but they are still a handy reference point; Joe Highsmith ranked sixth for the 2024 season and was sixth here during it, while Matti Schmid in fifth always turns up in these charts.

There is a more simplistic filter to apply, though, and that's power. Yes, we're at significant altitude and yes, everyone will be able to get the ball out there – but there are levels, and Brennan is at the very highest one. Second-placed Hoey and third-placed Coody hit the ball a long way, too, but such was Brennan's dominance off the tee even Coody couldn't live with him.

McCarty isn't long, but he won with a red-hot short-game and my view on how to approach this has changed since last year. The fact there are two driveable par-fours to go with the three par-fives, and the way things unfolded then, lead me to believe that off-the-tee statistics carry more weight than you might expect.

As for where else to look, the 3M Open is somewhat interesting despite its very different aesthetic. Along with Torrey Pines (always good for long drivers), it's where Coody has so far come closest to winning and where Brennan contended on his debut this summer; former 3M champions Lee Hodges and Kurt Kitayama both have good form here, too.

This is ultimately a desert shootout with a fair bit of volatility and with his price having hardened (11/1 from 14s) throughout Monday, that means I can avoid the temptation of Jackson Koivun, who not only won the 3M Open earlier this year but looked every inch the star he's meant to be in last week's Presidents Cup.

Among the dangers to the favourite are his old college rival, Ben James, but a stiffer test of ball-striking would ideally suit both him and Kevin Yu, who is also playing well. In fact I wanted to mention Yu because he's really impressed me since the spring, marrying his reliable long-game with some signs of putting improvement, and granted a tougher assignment may well feature on these pages in the coming weeks. He does lead this field in birdie average and was 15th last year, but I worry he'll be left behind on the greens.

It's rare that the top-rated player in the field per DataGolf not only isn't favourite, but is almost twice the price of the favourite. Wide fairways, altitude, some requirement to make putts all work in Maverick's McNealy's favour and he may feel he was wrongly overlooked for a Presidents Cup spot, but he was poor in this last year after six weeks off.

That leaves the defending champion as the right second favourite. Brennan has two top-fives on the PGA Tour and both of them wins. His putter has come round following a troubling first six months of the year and he dominated a good Wyndham Championship in August, all enough to believe that he could pick up where he left off when winning by four a year ago.

Norwegian looks an ace bet

But I return to the sense that short prices in this event represent too big a risk and will begin instead with KRISTOFFER VENTURA, in the hope that he can putt as well as he did when 11th here last year.

That is a bit of an unknown right now as the Norwegian both ended the regular season and began this FedExCup Fall with abject displays on the greens, but he is the very definition of spiky in that regard. For the year, Ventura is about average, but seldom does he putt that way; he was red-hot to start the campaign, stone-cold in the spring, warm again by summer and then cooled towards the end of it.

We'll see how he goes in that department but he's an excellent, long driver whose approach play has caught fire and that is a very likeable combination. In fact, since July he's been among the best iron players in this field and while the damage of the first six months means he's still a lowly 116th for the season, he had only three behind him in the strokes-gained approach stats come the end of June.

Since then, Ventura has ranked 10th, 19th, 21st and 29th in four separate tournaments, dipped slightly in the Wyndham, but then been excellent again on his return to action in the Biltmore Championship last time where that unruly putter meant for an early exit regardless.

During this same period, he's had tournaments where he's ranked first, third, fourth and 10th in strokes-gained off-the-tee, making him look like one of the few in this field who can live with Brennan in that regard. It all adds up to a potentially ideal opportunity for a player whose first Korn Ferry Tour win came here in Utah, who followed up at a form of altitude in Nebraska, and whose 11th here last year came courtesy of a 64-67 weekend.

Ventura has taken a while to fulfil his potential but looks like he's capable of doing so now and, from 107th in FedExCup points, he's a prime candidate to go ahead and secure his playing rights for 2027.

PIERCESON COODY is another of those who can compete to be the best driver in this field on his day and it's worth chancing that he can return to those kind of levels.

From the middle of last summer through to February this year there really wasn't a better driver in professional golf than this talented youngster, but after a nagging injury in the spring he has dipped significantly and his modest form reflects that fact.

However, he was better in Asheville last time and, more to the point, I wonder if the unique nature of this golf course may help unlock substantial improvement. Notably, his best driving performance since the spring came at the wide-open Craig Ranch and he was good again at The Renaissance, the golf course where Chris Gotterup blasted his way to victory the previous summer.

Since his UK trip, Coody hasn't necessarily met with the right circumstances to unleash his prodigious driving but having seen enough from him last time to suggest the swing is there, the wide-open fairways of Black Desert, where he was third last year and averages a whopping +1.32 strokes-gained off-the-tee from six rounds, could be key to a return to form.

He also has two top-10s from the Utah Championship, another altitude top-five in Colorado, second place at a golf course which favours long drivers in the ISCO and another of those at Torrey Pines, so rather than last year's performance being a freak one, to my eye it makes perfect sense given his profile.

Coody's form is patchy but still with flashes of very good, including 19th at Southwind two starts ago, a couple of major championship top-30s in summer, and top-25s in his native Texas which correlate nicely. There could be a lot more to come from him this week and the fact he's still a prolific birdie-maker (ninth among this field) is another plus.

So is the fact that he's 54th in FedExCup points as those who occupy positions 51-60 come the end of the year will earn access to some of the big events early next season. That's a big incentive for Coody and he won't meet a better course for his power-packed game than this one.

There's a first time for everything...

Beau Hossler has produced seven good tee-to-green displays in eight starts now, including when runner-up in the Wyndham and returning from that to miss the cut last time because of his putter alone. Historically strong with that club and an occasionally wayward driver who ought to enjoy the space this place offers, any improvement on the greens could set him up for another go at getting off the mark at last.

Hossler was fourth in the tee-to-green stats when 11th at Black Desert last year but I want a bit more juice in the prices of my million-start maidens and am more interested in PATRICK RODGERS and DENNY MCCARTHY.

Rodgers welcomed a baby girl into the family a month ago so we'll see if that inspires him or leaves him rusty on his return to action. It may well be the latter after a long break since Southwind, but that's a chance I'm willing to take in his case.

The reason for doing so is that his preparation has been terrible ahead of two previous starts here, yet he's been 11th and 27th. First, he'd gone 37-MC following the end of the regular season, then last year he went off to Europe and back with little to show for it in form figures of MC-33-MC-MC-62.

Despite all this he arrived in Utah and was immediately at ease, averaging 67.75 for his eight rounds and always shooting par or better. He also has three top-fives at altitude in the Barracuda, three top-20s in Phoenix, others in Boise and Las Vegas, and the California-educated Rodgers will have no excuses on that front.

His form has been iffy but he drove the ball as well as he has since January when 19th at Southwind, that in a high-class event won by Scottie Scheffler. It was his best result in seven starts at the course and if it does confirm that Rodgers has found the key to driving the ball as we know he can, then this habitually excellent putter could be dangerous.

We know by now his approach play isn't his strength but several players have contended here without it and on this rare occasion, I'll take my chances.

MCCARTHY in theory ought to take a bit more explaining as he's not the profile I was looking for – but he is almost twice the price I expected, and in such circumstances the rest has to go out of the window.

This longstanding maiden is a weak driver whose putting is the best on the PGA Tour when he's firing and it was a rare off week with that club which saw him miss the cut in Asheville, one of the reasons he's been shunted so far down the market.

But this is a player who is inside DataGolf's top 100, sandwiched between Rasmus Hojgaard and the aforementioned Hossler. They are both about 45/1 and accounting for McCarthy not having played here before, I'd have thought 50s would be about right.

And yet he's 100s with some firms, 75/1 with as many as 10 places, and that's enough to overlook some driving issues and focus on fifth place elsewhere in Utah, third more recently in the 3M Open which may correlate well, 16th in Phoenix, and 26th in Colorado.

What's more, McCarthy has played 23 times this year, 10 of them in Signature Events, The Players, or majors. Since that collective of tournaments ended in summer, he's played six times down in grade and on three occasions has been involved at halfway, including two starts ago in the Wyndham plus the aforementioned 3M Open.

Notably, this follows a return to his old coach back in May and then picking up experienced caddie Geno Bonnalie in July. Speaking at the Wyndham last month, he sounded enthused about the work he's done and there have been clear signs of progress in his approach play, leaving that driver of his as the missing part.

It's fair to say it'll never be McCarthy's main weapon, but if he can keep it in play here, enjoying the benefits of an extra 10 or 20 yards, then the rest of his game is of a standard good enough to contend even at a distance disadvantage. Regardless, he really is too good for the prices quoted and in general I think the market can underestimate players who've been struggling a little bit while swimming in much deeper waters.

Gordon Sargent, McCarthy's diametric opposite, was on my radar but his form is nowhere near as good yet he's the same price. About 300 places separate the two with DataGolf, 230-odd with the Official World Golf Rankings, and the powerhouse Sargent has surely been overestimated for all that he's produced two excellent tee-to-green displays lately.

Compensation coming for hard-luck Hall?

At massive odds, Cam Davis has altitude form and his irons have improved markedly since the Scottish Open. He's been suffering badly off the tee all year but I did wonder whether these wide fairways might help cut out the mistakes which undermined 23 birdies and an eagle last time out, just one of a series of small hints that he might be heading in the right direction again.

His status for winning expires at the end of the season and he's miles off regaining it via the FedExCup, so it'll be fascinating to see how this big talent gets on. Maybe watching the Presidents Cup will serve as further inspiration, but while tempting given how wide these fairways are, until Davis tidies up his driving he won't be a factor anywhere.

I'll keep things more sensible by siding with HARRY HALL, who would be a very strong a fancy at the price.

To my eye, Hall has taken his game up a level lately, his long-game finally outshining his short-game. Significantly, his approach work has become consistently good and for all he can dazzle on and around the greens, it's those approaches which provide a platform for him to reach the next level.

Hall has now gained strokes on his last five starts across a variety of courses and while it looks like he took a backwards step in Northern Ireland last time, that was in fact the fault of his short-game. In hitting the ball so well, Hall demonstrated that the short-term nerve issue which probably cost him the European Masters was behind him and he should be feeling like he's owed one.

While he grew up by the coast in Cornwall, so far his links form is patchy and I think he might be far more comfortable in the desert. Home is now Las Vegas, where he played the Shriners four times and always to a good standard, and it was something he talked about in Crans. It was also among the chief reasons for selecting him there at 28/1 and, losing by one shot in the end, that two-hour spell where he played through injury was desperately unfortunate.

Hall was then about the same price for the Irish Open, which was stronger than this. That's true both of its overall strength-of-field rating, but also the calibre of golfer at the very head of the betting: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Robert MacIntyre, Joaquin Niemann, and several more. Hall was a few points bigger than the in-form Matt Wallace but is now twice the price of his compatriot, yet I'd say this course is more likely to provoke improvement from Hall.

He dropped a big hint on debut, too, shooting rounds of 65 and 64 over the first couple of days but then firing a closing 74 to fall from sixth to 35th, his iron play the key issue. Two years on, that aspect of his game improved and his ability to make bundles of birdies underlined, he looks to have a big chance to double his PGA Tour tally under the low-scoring conditions we know he likes.

Stephan Jaeger is another who is high up the birdie statistics and as well as having gone 2-11 in his two starts here, he has stacks of form on wide-open golf courses where going low is the only mission. That earns him respect and the fact he was out of form ahead of both previous visits speaks to how well suited he is to Black Desert, but all this appears to be factored into the price.

Preference is for HAOTONG LI, who has drifted since betting opened and makes plenty of appeal.

This is a player with a touch of class who I think is being underestimated partly because of his nature. Haotong will seldom look good the way golf data compilers tend to model tournaments because his bad is very bad and he can go through prolonged periods of struggle, which he did from March to August, compounded by being out on the PGA Tour after earning full status for the first time.

But just as a trip back to China worked the oracle a few years ago, returning to the DP World Tour to go MC-37-18-14, latterly in a high-class Irish Open, seems to have done the trick. A buoyant Haotong then finished 10th in the Biltmore Championship despite a slow start (he'd flown in from Northern Ireland) and bar one hole, his golf over the final two rounds there was exceptional.

Haotong shot 61 on Saturday then 67 on Sunday, the latter despite one bad swing resulting in a double-bogey. That was his only blemish of the weekend and he was 16-under for the remaining 35 holes, golf on a par with a high-class champion. That remember was a low-scoring event at altitude and it wouldn't be at all surprising were it to prove a nice way to prepare for a trip west to Utah.

In Haotong's case we also have two desert wins in the Middle East to call upon, where he beat high-class rivals, and he showed that this style of golf is a good one for him when eighth in the AmEx to begin the year. Note, McCarty was runner-up there and last year's Black Desert contender, David Ford, also played well. Haotong went on to finish 11th at Torrey Pines, a driver-heavy course, and he's been really good off-the-tee for a while now.

Capable of world-class approach play (second at Crans) and having started to hole some putts (seventh last time), everything appears to be coming together in time for a run at salvaging status from 121st in the standings. As with Coody in 54th, I doubt Haotong will find a more suitable set of circumstances between now and the end of the year.

Posted at 12:00 BST on 29/09/26

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