After a luckless end to the Dubai Desert Classic, Ben Coley is hoping his favourite young player on the DP World Tour can deliver in Bahrain.
Golf betting tips: Bahrain Championship
3pts win Angel Ayora at 16/1 (General)
3pts win Daniel Hillier at 18/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 45/1 (Betfred, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Andrea Pavan at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Zander Lombard at 90/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
With the Ras Al Khaimah Championship gone from the schedule, it's now the Bahrain Championship which marks the drop down in grade from last week's Rolex Series riches, albeit with Dubai winner Patrick Reed still headlining the field as he seeks to bag as many dollars and ranking points as he can, while he can.
This transition sees most of the stars depart, replaced by HotelPlanner Tour graduates and some Q-Schoolers who've been waiting to get going after their pre-Christmas opportunities in Australia, South Africa, and Mauritius. It's a long-awaited return to action and one which comes with twin disadvantages: not only have most players in this field played competitively over the past fortnight, they've done so right here in the desert.
And Royal GC certainly bears some similarities to the Majlis, where Reed won the Dubai Desert Classic. Both are mid-length par 72s with several key scoring opportunities, including short par-fours together with the tougher ones. Holes six, 10 and 11 can be made driveable by shifting tee boxes around, the former perhaps the most vulnerable despite being the longest on the scorecard, and there are four reachable par-fives.
These holes help to make long hitting a genuine weapon and when Dylan Frittelli won here in 2024, it was particularly striking how wild he could afford to be. Nobody in the top seven that week hit more than 50% of fairways and five of them ranked 40th or worse in driving accuracy, and while the 2025 leaderboard was more varied, Laurie Canter ranked 38th, Ivan Cantero 51st, and David Puig 65th.
All of those players have Dubai Desert Classic form, as does play-off loser Pablo Larrazabal. Frittelli and Canter also have particularly eye-catching records in the DP World Tour Championship, also held in Dubai; Frittelli via two top-10s in two visits and Canter having twice had genuine chances to win. Royal GC isn't as long, nor as exclusive in the way it favours big-hitters, but there are definite parallels between the two.
Above all else, those who've played in the Middle East, before Christmas and after it, are at an advantage and since the schedule changed to adopt this rhythm, we're yet to see a returning player capture the equivalent event. I'd say this next fortnight should be used to learn more about the Tour's newest members with a view to Kenya, South Africa, and beyond, remembering that Martin Couvra was last year's big eye-catcher and went on to not only win in Turkey, but be crowned Rookie of the Year.
It's rare for the Q-School medallist to play in the Dubai Desert Classic but ZANDER LOMBARD's medical exemption allowed him to do so and he stands out as a cracking each-way bet at big prices.
There are a few reasons to like the chances of Lombard, but chief among them is the most simple: I'm not sure you could come up with a better golf course for him than this one, a view he helps support having been runner-up to Frittelli on his sole start here to date.
Lombard is a wild powerhouse who has almost all of the tools required to be a top DP World Tour player, the main reason he's never quite reached those heights being that waywardness. He's therefore often been most effective at courses where he can either scale back off the tee, or where his length can overcome the challenge of missing fairways, including when the punishment for doing so is minimal.
Al Hamra counts as one and we saw how Alejandro del Rey thrashed his way to the title there last year, just as Nicolai Hojgaard had done previously, both of them finding the waste areas often but still being able to hit greens. Lombard has a fabulous record there and this formula, of long, wayward drives but still a high greens-in-regulation count, is the one he put to use when second here in 2024.
Also with good form to his name at the Earth Course and the Emirates, where last week he was 27th despite having conceded a start to most of the best players, he's made for this test and the drop in grade combined with a return to Royal GC comes at such a good time.
Lombard took a while to return to form last year, having missed half of the previous campaign, but three top-10s over his final 10 tour-level starts set him up perfectly for this year, and that's without considering his display of total dominance at Q-School. Lombard won by a ridiculous 13 shots in Spain and I felt at the time, as many I'm sure did, that this would set him up for a breakout 2026 season.
“Hopefully this is the springboard for what the season has in store.” 🗣️
— DP World Tour Q-School (@DPWTQSchool) November 12, 2025
Hear from Zander Lombard following his dominant performance at Final Stage Qualifying School. #DPWTQSchool pic.twitter.com/tYXXZbDWhK
Subsequently fifth in Mauritius via a closing 62 and having shown flashes of good form in Scotland and India in the autumn, we're about to find out much more about the state of his game and I will admit that the fact he's relied heavily on the putter is a bit of a nagging worry.
But around here, where he might just get away with being erratic, power plus putting could be a winning combination for arguably the most capable longstanding maiden on the DP World Tour, one whose closest calls outside of South Africa have exclusively been at big-hitter courses where the penalty for missing fairway can, if you're lucky, be virtually non-existent.
Here's to being a little luckier than we were last week, when David Puig was downgraded from third to seventh after grounding his club in the bunker on the very last hole of the tournament, robbing us of a nice each-way payout. Those stung by that can snare eight places at prices between 75 and 90/1, or else you can get three-figures at the time of writing for six places.
Take two from the top
With Puig absent, it's Reed and Jayden Schaper who head the market and I imagine many will feel Reed deserves to be ahead of the younger man, the only player ahead of him on the Race to Dubai. Fascinatingly, were Reed to win here he'd have almost enough points for a 2027 PGA Tour card and, having revealed that he's yet to sign a LIV contract extension, that really could make him think twice about a season on the DP World Tour instead.
His record immediately after a win isn't great – one top-five finish so far – but his Masters win came during a prolonged run of elite form and I don't think anyone should be surprised if he goes in again. Were he to do so, the world number 29 would be in all four majors this year whereas as of now the final two remain in some doubt, particularly the Open. Reed actually won the Junior Open 20 years ago and that was on England's west coast. Returning there for Birkdale 2026 is high on his list of priorities.
Still, there's no doubt his love of last week's course and the way it played over the first two rounds were hugely significant factors and while one win has led to plenty of revisionism, let's not forget that Reed was poor during the final couple of months of last year. He played three Asian Tour and four DP World Tour events from October onwards and didn't get close to contending; maybe last week was of its time and place.
Ultimately, in a largely weak field I like two players at the head of this market and with some of the enhanced places being squeezed so far this year, ANGEL AYORA and DANIEL HILLIER are both selected win-only.
I love how Ayora fought to make the cut last week and in a few days we may look back on it as particularly significant. Three-over through six holes of round one and still on that score with three holes of round two to play, he birdied them all thanks to quality approach shots to earn a weekend tee-time, then climbed further up the leaderboard for a share of 26th.
Given that it was his debut at a course the eventual top six had all played before, this was a big effort from an enormous talent and there's precedent here, because his sole pro win to date, in Poland, came after he'd shot 74-67 to just make it through to the weekend. Whether he recalls that I don't know, but I can really see history repeating as he ought to take so much heart from how he went about things.
On a more tangible level it was also heartening to see Ayora putt better, particularly on Sunday, and with that behind him everything looks in place to go ahead and contend here in Bahrain.
Granted, he did perform poorly here last year but it really took until June for him to get involved in a tournament as he found his feet on the DP World Tour, and his effortless power and precision approach play line up nicely with Canter's skill set. I've been waiting to put him up and hope I've timed it right.
Hillier closed with a round of 65 last year, a score beaten only by Puig, and is a big danger to everyone here having taken his game to a new level since.
His T26 finish last week was solid, especially from a high-profile three-ball over the first two rounds, and there's arguably nobody on the DP World Tour who has been banging on the door quite as loudly as the New Zealander since November.
Hillier had been inside the top 10 at halfway seven starts running prior to last week and let's not forget, this high-profile group alongside Viktor Hovland and Dustin Johnson came after he'd been in the mix right to the death in the Dubai Invitational. Perhaps it was asking a lot for him to go again, even if he did absolutely nothing wrong in defeat there.
That performance, including two quality shots down the last when knowing he needed birdie, seemed to me to be a fine representation of the confidence he built towards the end of 2025. Hillier sometimes appears as though he's lacking that vital ingredient but it's flowing now and a second DP World Tour win is around the corner.
Some will prefer to take their pick and bet each-way but I can't split them.
ANTOINE ROZNER is a quality performer at this level, particularly in the Middle East where this is the only event in which he doesn't yet own a top-10 finish, having missed that mark by a shot on his sole try so far.
Rozner has won the Golf in Dubai Championship and the Qatar Masters, he's been third in the DP World Tour Championship, he has top-10s in the Dubai Desert Classic plus in Abu Dhabi and Oman, so the only exceptions are Al Hamra (played twice, best of 24th) and the short-lived event in Saudi Arabia where he wasn't far off the top of the leaderboard.
It's no surprise then that he was 12th on his trip to Bahrain, that despite not producing his best work from tee-to-green, and I can forgive him last week's effort at the Majlis. Conditions were really tough early on and Rozner endured a nightmare start at six-over through nine, but thereafter his ball-striking was superb and had he been better closer to the greens he'd have completed the salvage operation.
In the end a missed cut by two is no disaster and judged on his 10th place at Dubai Creek the week before, where every part of his game fired, Rozner looks a big danger in this markedly weaker field.
He didn't pull up any trees on the PGA Tour last year but was far from disgraced, making 13 cuts in a row at one stage but putting poorly throughout autumn when he needed something special to keep hold of his playing rights for 2026.
Back on the DP World Tour it didn't take him long to get competitive again, finishing 14th in Johannesburg, and this proven desert performer, whose driver has been less precise than it used to be, should find the demands of Royal GC to his liking. He looks one of the most likely winners and can be backed at a nice each-way price.
I'll admit that I've gone back and forth on ANDREA PAVAN, who isn't a big-hitter nor does he drive the ball accurately enough to make up for that, but on balance he's worth chancing at 50s and bigger.
Pavan spent much of last week's Rolex Series event in the mix and while a final-round 75 saw him fall to 14th, it was still a personal best around a course he's never performed well at, and it came because of quality through the bag. It's particularly nice to see that driver of his behave itself more often, having once threatened his entire career, with two genuinely top-class displays prior to Christmas and a solid one in Dubai.
Typically, Pavan's strength is his iron play and that's helped power a run of eye-catching form over the past few months. The pick was fourth in the Genesis Championship, just behind defending champion Canter, and after last week it's now four top-25s in six starts and no missed cuts since a narrow one in Spain.
In three of his last five he's been inside the top 10 after two rounds, including in the Alfred Dunhill which meant just about being in the mix for a 54-hole tournament, and while he's not yet put four together this drop back down to that sort of level could be the difference.
What most draws me to Pavan, though, is his form at the course. He came here in 2024 and finished 47th, not particularly inspiring except for the fact it was both preceded and followed by runs of missed cuts, and he did this despite not holing much. Then, last year, he'd gone MC-50 over the previous fortnight but stepped up to be 13th, again without really putting in the way we know he can.
Positive off-the-tee numbers and a ranking of seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green add genuine weight to his Royal GC record and his preparation has never been better, so I'll take him to do as Larrazabal did and get involved on a generally more big-hitting leaderboard.
Speaking of big-hitting, Ivan Cantero bogeyed the 72nd hole when needing par for a play-off a year ago, galling given that we were on at three-figure prices, and he's prepared similarly with a good ball-striking display in Dubai last week.
Unfortunately his short-game has been a mess for a long time now and unless that changes he'll struggle to do much better so, as incongruous as this may sound, SEAN CROCKER gets the final vote.
It's Crocker's short-game that has held him back, having spent a good deal of the last seven years threatening to be a bit too good for this grade. So far he has one title to show for it, in an event which is now defunct, and he's been nowhere near a return to his homeland and the PGA Tour.
However, he's actually shown some good signs with the putter lately, gaining strokes in two starts either side of Christmas, just as he has around the greens. Should that continue then he's likely to do much better and even when going through prolonged periods of toil on the greens, this is a player who invariably pops up and threatens to win at some stage each season.
Last year that came in Hainan, where powerhouse Marco Penge won, and Crocker is another strong, long driver who often saves his best for courses that accentuate this skill. But one place he's never been able to crack is the Majlis, scene of last week's Dubai Desert Classic, and that's why I'm taken with two excellent rounds during the middle part of the tournament, which helped him to by far his best result yet.
Should Crocker take a step forward from that and continue to hole putts, then his debut 16th here after a poor couple of appearances suggests he might be coming to a suitable golf course. That was his fourth-best result of a quiet campaign and, as a player with a very similar game to that of the defending champion, I'm willing to chance him proving how suitable Royal GC is.
Posted at 18:00 GMT on 26/01/26
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