Two English Ryder Cup stars are fancied to go well in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, under way on Thursday morning.
Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
5pts win Tyrrell Hatton at 9/1 (General)
3pts win Matt Fitzpatrick at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard at 30/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
The renewed strength of the DP World Tour schedule is best encapsulated by September’s world golf takeover, but November isn’t all that far behind. Here we have back-to-back tournaments of genuine quality and intrigue, beginning with an Abu Dhabi Championship which once was the beginning the season, but now represents the beginning of the end.
Golf in the Middle East is still relatively new and there’s a ubiquity to the courses, such that these concluding tournaments could easily feel repetitive. However, Yas Links, as its names suggests, rates something of an exception. No, you’re not going to be mistaken for thinking this is taking place in Scotland, but Kyle Phillips’ exposed golf course is sufficiently unalike next week’s more manicured test.
Its characteristics could explain a run of winners at relatively big prices – at least, none of them was close to favourite. So far, the very biggest names have been turned over in this and the biggest of them all, Rory McIlroy, is definitely more at home at next week’s Earth Course. There is a supplementary factor, too. McIlroy is yet to win this event despite almost winning it almost every time. Typically, he’s played it after a break. These two things could very well be linked.
So what does Yas Links demand? Well, that’s changed even in three years and will depend on the weather, which is set to be perfect. In 2022, persistent winds kept scoring high; last year, it was a shootout, these fairways plenty wide and, in calm conditions at least, scoring opportunities plentiful. Somehow, Paul Waring won despite playing the easiest holes much worse than his pursuers. The stars aligned for him but he’s certainly always been a strong driver well-suited in general to desert golf. This does remain a big course, big enough at least, albeit less straightforwardly suitable for the bombers. Again, that’s a point of distinction versus the DP World Tour Championship.
Granular analysis would hint that you don’t have to be a superstar around the greens but, ironically then, Victor Perez looked like he might let things slip before he holed from a bunker at the penultimate hole, then Min Woo Lee almost chipped in to force a playoff. Let’s say for simplicity that we should still err towards a Perez type over a Lee: strong off the tee but not wild and, above all else, a quality iron player.
Both these men have won in Scotland as have other runners-up TYRRELL HATTON and Rafa Cabrera Bello, and although there's nothing Scottish about the forecast, anyone who has shown a liking for exposed courses gets a bump up the shortlist.
On Hatton, he seems to me to be the clear pick of the market leaders and I can't find fault with 9/1 in this field.
McIlroy is the man to beat but outside of Ireland, his other four starts since the Open have seen him finish outside the top 10. That's pretty rare for a player of his calibre and while winning the Race to Dubai should guarantee his focus throughout this fortnight, I think he'll back himself to win the DP World Tour Championship again after a primer here.
Although he's played recently, remember he didn't carry driver in India so that club hasn't been hit in competition in more than a month and while it feels likely that he'll win this title one day, I'm happy to suggest he might again fall just short. This is certainly a good time to take him on in my eyes, and Hatton has a much superior course record to Tommy Fleetwood.
Indeed, Hatton's record is the best in the field: sixth, seventh and second so far, gaining 2.25 strokes per round; 0.3 better than McIlroy but, more significantly I feel, more than twice as good as Fleetwood, who is undoubtedly one of the form players in world golf but has questions to answer in a shootout at Yas Links.
Hatton proved his suitability to such conditions when runner-up to an inspired Waring, doing little wrong, and since coming home in 29 in the previous renewal, his initial complaints about this course, more specifically the 18th hole, have gone quiet. You'd have to assume he quite likes it deep down given that he's never played badly, doing basically everything well in all three appearances.
Having won this at a difference course and captured the Dubai Desert Classic back in January, Middle East golf has always come naturally to Hatton and he of course has three wins in Scotland to his name. All of them came in the Dunhill Links, won in 2019 by Perez, and he was second in that event on his latest start after playing a massive part in European Ryder Cup success.
Third on the Race to Dubai, victory here would send him to the finale with hopes of taking down McIlroy to win it for the first time in his career, and Hatton has an excellent chance.
MATT FITZPATRICK, Ludvig Aberg, Marco Penge and Aaron Rai are all course debutants and while that doesn't have to be a big negative, I'd say the last-named trio have other issues surrounding their potential course suitability.
Fitzpatrick, twice a winner of the DP World Tour Championship, appeals more and 16/1 looks good to me. He's played to a very high standard since the beginning of summer, including at the Ryder Cup, and his blend of improved approach play and the potential for a killer putting week makes him a big threat.
Like Hatton, he's a former winner of the Dunhill Links, he turns up here at the top of his game, and though I'm loathe to select two players from near the top of the betting at this golf course, the strongest DP World Tour events keep getting won by the strongest players. It sounds simple and I think it might be this time, so will split stakes for a combined 5/1 and change.
Shane Lowry put in a frustrating display for us in India last time but comes here with an obvious each-way chance again. He's yet to bag a top-10 finish at Yas Links but has been inside the top three with a round to go on each visit, evidence that his performances have been much more promising than at first it may appear. Had it been windier, he'd have been in the staking plan, but a shootout really isn't ideal.
Instead, NICOLAI HOJGAARD could threaten a Middle East hat-trick following wins at Al Hamra and the Earth Course.
Both those courses so obviously play to his long-driving strengths, but 10th and 13th on his last two starts at Yas Links, both despite quiet first rounds, confirm that this one is a really good fit as well.
Dig deeper and his ball-striking numbers have been phenomenal. He's ranked second and third in strokes-gained off-the-tee, ninth and fourth in strokes-gained approach, led the field once in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and would've done twice had his work around the greens been about average last year.
In other words, 10th and 13th are about the worst possible results from the way he's struck the ball and it's not like he'd been at the absolute top of his game ahead of either renewal, so I'm hopeful he can produce something similar and build on what looks like a stronger putting display in Japan three weeks ago, certainly in the final round.
Hojgaard was 14th there after a closing 64, which is just enough encouragement together with two top-fives in his last six DP World Tour starts, one of them coming in Scotland. Certainly, there's scope for him to contend if the putter does warm up.
Four to ponder for places
In a smaller field likely to throw up a classy champion I'm content to stick with this trio, but there are four outsiders who I thought long and hard about.
First was Keita Nakajima, if he counts as an outsider at around 66/1, and the case here largely relies on an excellent record in the Middle East. Already, in limited opportunities, he's been fourth at Al Hamra, seventh at the Earth Course, 13th here and 21st in the Dubai Desert Classic, while he also won the Asia-Pacific Amateur at Dubai Creek – that's about an hour along the coast.
Impressive when runner-up to Fleetwood in India, this former amateur star, who is fighting for the PGA Tour card he so desperately wants and now has a huge chance to get, could certainly go well. He's putted to a good standard on these grainy greens before and if that happens again, expect him to bounce back from a quiet week in Korea.
Haotong Li's MC-MC course record is bound to put some people off but the first of these came after a long flight from Hawaii, the second after he'd missed 21 of his last 23 cuts. Ignore it and you've another with a strong desert record, having won the Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters, while he also has two Open top-fives plus a near-miss by the coast in Sicily at a course designed by Phillips.
Three of Haotong's four DP World Tour wins have come in 22-, 23- and 22-under so a shootout like this makes sense and, again like Nakajima, he's one more good week from PGA Tour membership. Of the four mentioned, he's the one I like most.
Haotong Li started the season ranked 311 in the Official World Golf Rankings 🇨🇳
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 3, 2025
He's now ranked World Number 83 and sits 10th on the Race to Dubai Rankings after winning the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and finishing T4 at @TheOpen.
As it stands, he's on course to earn himself… pic.twitter.com/lawDgr9sQ8
Finally, European duo Joakim Lagergren and Andrea Pavan also make some sense.
Lagergren has twice been runner-up this year, including to McIlroy when unlucky to lose, and he boasts an exceptional Dunhill Links record. His win came on that Phillips design in Sicily, his second place in the KLM Open on a links-style course, and he's continued to play well despite his putter cooling lately.
If that putter warms up again he can defy a bad course record with his game now in much better shape, especially his irons which have often in the past been a weakness but are now becoming a strength. Again, this is a player vying for PGA Tour cards (12th in the effective standings, 16th overall), one who could threaten the top five at three-figure prices.
Pavan meanwhile was 25th on his sole previous start here, fading from ninth through 54 holes, and what's significant about this performance is that it came after a truly miserable 2021 campaign. He'd missed 15 cuts in 17 events, had no top-50s, and was battling the driving yips. They persisted in 2022 and he drove it badly here too, but the rest of his game was excellent.
Returning almost four years later, he's been 17th and fourth on his last two starts, driving it well, and enjoyed his best putting week of the year in Korea. More of the same on this free ticket (he's 65th in the Race to Dubai, only just qualifying) and Pavan could reward backers in the top-20 finish market, without necessarily looking up to winning the biggest title of his career.
Posted at 1900 GMT on 03/11/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
