Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi Championship

3pts e.w. Matt Wallace at 18/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Jeff Winther at 70/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

1pt e.w. Joakim Lagergren at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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There is simply no getting away from the fact that the Abu Dhabi Aldar Championship will be played under a cloud following the withdrawal of several high-profile DP World Tour members, some of whom simply were not comfortable travelling to the Middle East at this time. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Dubai resident Tommy Fleetwood are in the field – each of these Ryder Cup stars has been told what to do in the event the UAE authorities issue a mobile phone alert to the public as war in the region continues.

For now, it seems the tournament will go ahead and there is much to play for at Yas Links, before the season concludes next week. McIlroy for example will feel he must win either here or at his beloved Earth Course if he's to capture a record eighth Race to Dubai title from third place in the standings. Meanwhile, the battle for PGA Tour cards will go to the wire again, with Joe Dean currently occupying the final spot but in need of more if he's to fend off any number of potential threats.

Yas Links is a fine golf course, one of the best on the circuit, notable for being designed by Kyle Phillips in the mould of courses far from here. Links golf this very much is not, but there are flourishes of Phillips' work in Scotland and the exposed nature of Yas Links can make it a real challenge. Driving power is less significant here than it will be in Dubai; instead, the emphasis is more on the approach shot and when that is challenged by strong winds, the difference between these two concluding tournaments is emphasised.

Unfortunately, there's not much breeze in the forecast and with the last two winners having reached 24- and 25-under respectively, we ought to expect low scoring. That may mean McIlroy can't afford another slow start having given himself just a little too much to do when third in the last two renewals, closing with rounds of 64 and 62 which both underline what he can do here, while highlighting a vulnerability he may not feel next week. As in the past, I am inclined to take him on around Yas Links, even if his need this time is more urgent.

With Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton both having turned in some miserable performances in the autumn, Tommy Fleetwood is the solid option from the front of the betting and perhaps he can atone for last year's play-off defeat. DataGolf actually rate him a shade higher than McIlroy for the time being, which explains why their respective prices are so close together, and on this occasion I can see the argument that odds of 7/1 are merited.

Fleetwood also leads nicely to a potentially key piece of correlating form as he was so close to doing the double between here and Dubai Creek, home of the biannual Dubai Invitational. They're alike in being more exposed and less overtly modern than many courses in the UAE, placing a greater emphasis on the approach shot and offering less for powerful driving. And it's not just Fleetwood who helps draw a connection: lesser players like Antoine Rozner, Thorbjorn Olesen, Thriston Lawrence, Daniel Hillier and Nacho Elvira do, too.

With that in mind Fleetwood came close to selection but I'll make MATT WALLACE the headline bet.

We were on Wallace when he last played here and stormed to third place courtesy of a final-round 63. Though he never looked like reeling in Paul Waring, Wallace would've been a worthy champion having led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green but suffered badly with the putter until things came together on Sunday.

One year earlier he'd been down the field but ranked eighth in those tee-to-green stats so there's ample evidence that he likes the place, and so he should. Ever since contending for the DP World Tour Championship as a rookie, Wallace has shown a fondness for Middle East golf, almost winning at the neighbouring course at Jumeirah Golf Estates too as well as finishing second in the Dubai Desert Classic.

Wallace has also been seventh at the former host venue of this tournament, has three top-20s in three starts in Qatar and was seventh on his Dubai Creek debut too, so he's always one to have in mind for these events. And while I'd give him a squeak at the Earth Course next week for that reason, there's no doubt in my mind that this course is more suitable, a fact he can hopefully underline in the coming days.

Wallace's form on the PGA Tour might be a red flag to some but he hit the ball very well in Utah only to miss the cut narrowly because of his putter, then can be excused a modest performance in the Baycurrent Classic. Before that fortnight, he'd gone 15-9-14-10 on the DP World Tour, twice ranking inside the top five in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and back on this circuit that's the sort of level we ought to again expect.

This is a massive opportunity for Wallace given the absence of several potential Ryder Cup players and the points that are on offer, and with strong form at Bernardus (54-hole leader when subsequent Yas Links winner Victor Perez triumphed there) and Kingsbarns (another Phillips design), he has every box ticked. There's a bit of 25/1 around to fewer places, but all those betting to 10 offer 18/1 at the time of writing.

Among the remainder priced below 50/1, I can't say that anyone bar Wallace appealed on value grounds.

Niklas Moller and Matty Jordan make some sense and the former was the second-best scorer over the final two rounds of the Dubai Invitational, but he's generally looked a grade below this level and has been cut across the board on Monday. Jordan still has scope to be seriously good, but the putter is a continuing worry if we're looking at a winning score beyond 20-under.

I'd be marginally more in favour of Angel Ayora as seldom can we take these prices, explained by back-to-back missed cuts. In his favour are a top-10 finish here last year and a strong record in the Middle East, but I can't help but hope he shows promise without quite delivering under conditions which again might be a little easier than he'd like.

Ayora is absolutely made for the Earth Course, whereas a lower-scoring Abu Dhabi Championship where his driver isn't quite so useful can't be said to represent optimal conditions.

Winther is coming

As such I only have two other big-priced selections, first of whom is JEFF WINTHER.

I can't help but feel he's being priced on name rather than form, the argument being that this 38-year-old veteran is unlikely to take a big step up on two previous, lesser wins, and that's fair in some ways.

However, his form is comparable to players quoted at half the odds yet he's the one who has won this autumn, and he's the one who has played best here before too. Winther defied a slow start to be sixth on debut and another to be 17th the following year, and then flew home once more for a respectable, mid-pack finish last time.

Given that he carded three good rounds at Dubai Creek, where he was second at halfway on his sole start to date, this looks like an ideal course for Winther to extend a good run of form which already goes well beyond that emotional win on home soil. He now has seven top-30s in nine and, since winning, has only twice played poorly: at the Dunhill Links (always excusable), and on his first start back after the highlight of his career.

More recently, Winther has been inside the top 10 at halfway in each of his last three starts including after a bogey-free 66 at the aforementioned Kingsbarns, so maybe the idea of him emulating Waring and winning this to secure PGA Tour status as a veteran isn't so fanciful after all.

The fact that his strengths are his approach play and his putter make him a really nice fit for a shootout at Yas Links and at 66/1 and upwards, he's worth chancing.

Finally, I've warmed to the idea of excusing JOAKIM LAGERGREN for a miserable record here to date.

That has to be a concern, his scoring average of almost 72 far too high for comfort and last year's 62nd coming in a field of just 72 players.

However, this ought to be a good fit for a player with an excellent record on other Phillips designs, who has been a persistent threat in the Dunhill Links and lost a play-off at Doha, particularly now that he arrives here with his iron play red-hot.

Lagergren missed the cut in Korea last time because of an unusually poor putting week and had struggled around the tight confines of Delhi before that, but a prior run of 9-11-MC-10-30-11 suggested he was ready to go very close under the right conditions.

Given that his sole DP World Tour win to date came on an exposed course designed by Phillips I still wonder whether Yas Links might provide those and having taken a big step forward on previous efforts to be 10th in elite company at Wentworth, I'm prepared to roll the dice on a player who took McIlroy the distance in last year's Irish Open.

At his best, Lagergren is a deadly putter and with his irons never better, this feels like the right time to chance him.

Posted at 20:00 GMT on 02/11/25

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