Ben Coley golf tips for the Masters: Final-round betting preview and tips
A stop-start edition of the Masters still has a long way to run, but there are just two players shorter than 25/1 in the betting. Ben Coley looks ahead to the final day.
Golf betting tips: The Masters final round
2pts e.w. Viktor Hovland (without Koepka & Rahm) at 11/2 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt Hovland and Fitzpatrick both top-five (inc ties) at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
Nothing is perfect, even if that's what they want you to believe over there at Augusta National. Once a year we get to watch the Masters. Then it comes along and delivers up this sorry mess; a tournament delayed three times already, one which has only two realistic champions going into Sunday despite the fact that they didn't get as far as the turn on Saturday.
As a spectacle, it must rate among the least interesting in memory. As an in-play betting medium, it must also rate among the least interesting in memory.
There's nothing we can do of course, but nobody else is working this evening so I can at least abuse this platform to moan about it all for a bit while Spectre is on in the background. Even ITV are in on the act. Couldn't they have put on Skyfall instead?
To the lay of the land and the leaders, if they can still be pluralised, had just reached the double-oh-seventh green when play was suspended. Brooks Koepka had gone clear by four over Jon Rahm but that lead could soon be halved on Sunday, as Koepka will return to an 11-foot par putt before Rahm lines up a birdie attempt from slightly closer than that.
That's why Rahm is no bigger than 6/4 but having been 11/8 when trailing by two entering the third round, the price looks a little on the short side. Rahm will be no closer than that when the pair have hit their respective putts, could still trail by four with 29 holes to play, and even in this presumed head-to-head makes limited appeal now.
#themasters pic.twitter.com/QLU2Ve2lKL
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 8, 2023
At least Sky Bet have now joined BoyleSports in offering a 'without Koepka & Rahm' market and with others expected to follow suit, I'll advise VIKTOR HOVLAND at 11/2.
Hovland is currently in a big share of second behind Sam Bennett, but the two could swap places when play resumes. Bennett begins with a downhill seven-foot putt for par at the same time Hovland will putt from slightly further away for birdie at the eighth.
Whatever happens with those two, I think we're reasonably safe to ignore Bennett here and with better weather forecast, I'm happy to take on Patrick Cantlay and to a lesser extent Matt Fitzpatrick, who both made big inroads during what play there was on Saturday.
Fitzpatrick hasn't yet played the 13th and would be preferred of the two, but holes in hand should be an advantage in the anticipated weather. Augusta National will remain soft underfoot and the ninth in particular ought to offer up birdie chances for those who find the fairway.
Hovland will have to tackle the 10th and 11th holes but he's level-par for the two this week and if he can get through them, he can go past Cantlay, who has played the 13th already. Morikawa is set to par the eighth while of the six players tied for eighth, a shot behind this group, four have work to do to avoid dropping shots straight out of the gate.
It's worth noting that Morikawa has so far struggled at the ninth and 13th, no surprise perhaps given his stock fade off the tee, and with conditions akin to Thursday's, I'm keen to side with the player who led the way for much of that round.
Given that Fitzpatrick is the one I fear most at the prices, I'm also interested in the 13/2 about both him and Hovland finishing T5 or better. As well as several of those behind facing tricky return shots, so does Scottie Scheffler who appears sure to bogey the fourth before facing the demanding fifth.
Finally, a word on the hole-in-one market offered by Sky Bet. They make 'no' an even-money chance and that does interest me a little, even if we must remember that we've more attempts coming on Sunday than would ordinarily be the case.
I just wonder whether softer conditions will be the difference when it comes to balls gathering speed and running towards the pin at the 16th, which is where a hole in one is most likely to happen. There wasn't a hole-in-one in 2020, when the course played soft, and the same was true in the famed 2007 renewal, perhaps the one most closely resembling what we've seen this week.
The sub-air system will help enormously but won't restore these greens to their fiery best. In the circumstances perhaps the betting should be the other way around, but I'll try another day.
Posted at 2125 BST on 08/04/23
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