Golf betting tips for The Open: Preview and best bets for final round of golf's Open Championship
Ben Coley bagged a 50/1 winner in the third round of the Open. Now get his verdict on Sunday's final round at Royal St George's.
Golf betting tips: The Open Championship final round
2pts Jon Rahm without the front three at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Shane Lowry to shoot the lowest final-round score at 25/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)
1pt Matt Fitzpatrick to shoot the lowest final-round score at 33/1 (BoyleSports)
1pt double Fitzpatrick and Mansell to win their two-balls at 11/5 (Unibet)
3pts Kevin Streelman to beat Marcel Siem in their two-ball at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mackenzie Hughes to beat Dylan Frittelli in their two-ball at 11/10 (General)
At halfway in the Open Championship, three world-class major champions looked like they might have it between them. Eighteen holes closer to the end and while one of them has more work to do than had appeared likely, that view is strengthened.
Louis Oosthuizen has not yet been headed, as he bids to repeat his runaway St Andrews win. Already things are sure to be more complicated than that seven-shot parade, but despite admitting to being below his best during the third round, the South African leads by a shot. It's the first time he's held a solo lead after 54 holes of a major since that day in 2010.
Though Collin Morikawa is new to the Open, he has another chance to add to his PGA Championship success, which also came on his debut in the event. One behind Oosthuizen, the youngster fought back well from a couple of early mistakes, and come the end of the round his pinpoint approach play was firing once more. No wonder he was all smiles in his post-round interview.
As for Jordan Spieth, a shocking short miss at the 18th left him with three strokes to make up. While still a massive runner, his game had become scrappy for much of the back-nine, par saves at the 12th and 13th masking some poor shots before his putting collapsed, and of the three he's the one who can surely no longer win unless remedial work after the round does the job.
In my heart of hearts, I know Morikawa at 2/1 is a better bet than Oosthuizen at 13/8, but I also believe Oosthuizen can get this done. That conflict, and the fact that it's not as though Morikawa's price is wrong, makes it very easy to swerve the outright market, and to see what happens. Ultimately I believe the winner will come from that final group and much depends on whether Morikawa's putting or Oosthuizen's driving gives way.
What are the best bets for the final round?
Several firms are betting without the three, a mark of how difficult it will be for those who are four and five shots behind. It would only take a quiet final group to bring this lot right into the equation, and that is not uncommon, but with conditions set fair and the experience and class boasted by Oosthuizen and Morikawa, favours from them may not be forthcoming.
Still, JON RAHM won't have given up hope and he does look a strong favourite to emerge as best of the chasing pack.
With Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka both misfiring, the best-of-the-rest leaderboard thinned out considerably on Saturday, leaving pre-tournament favourite Rahm as the sole major champion within its top eight.
Johnson had been 7/2 with two rounds to go, despite there being 36 players within four of the effective lead, Koepka and Rahm among them. Now that figure is down to 21, and with just a round remaining there's no room for manoeuvre for those on the fringes.
With that in mind Rahm at 3/1, or even 7/2 if you can access Sky Bet's Price Boost, looks a generous price. Moreover, he finished strongly by playing the final seven holes in three-under before promising to attack and see what comes of it on Sunday.
It's only a month since he came from off the pace to win the US Open, and his previous victory in the BMW Championship came in the same fashion. He's not quite out of this but I'm far keener to keep things simple in a market rightly dominated by the Spaniard and playing partner Scottie Scheffler, who is a shot ahead and of course respected.
Rahm though looks to have bags of scope to improve again, and he has absolutely nothing to fear, nor to lose, from this situation. It's a little obvious but he looks a cracking bet at the odds either way.
Robert MacIntyre landed a 50/1 winner for these pages with a birdie-birdie finish to post the best third round score, and his performance could be traced back to a brilliant birdie to make the cut on Friday, a bullish interview, and a little added incentive with Ryder Cup points so precious to him right now.
History might just repeat in the shape of SHANE LOWRY, who felt he'd played well enough to shoot something better than his 69 and might be able to do as Francesco Molinari did at Portrush and finish his title defence with a flourish.
"I have mixed emotions, to be honest, because I played great. I left a lot of shots out there," said Lowry on Saturday evening. "One-under was probably the worst score I could have shot, which was very disappointing because I felt like I could have shot three-, four-, five-under out there today, and I would have been right in the tournament.
"My long game tee-to-green, I was as good as I've been all year today, so I'm pretty happy with that.
"To finish how I did (I'm) proud of myself, the way I battled and even just to hole those three putts at the end gives me a little bit of confidence going forward. And yeah, go into tomorrow now and try and shoot as low a score as I can and try and have the best week I can."
Lowry has looked close to a low round from the third hole on Thursday, after a horror start had threatened to derail his Open bid within half an hour. All hope is now lost but pride has firmly been restored and if he can push on and finish inside the top 10, emulating his staying-on fourth at the PGA Championship, any doubt as to his Ryder Cup position will be removed.
That performance at Kiawah Island could be key, as while there's no great breeze and plenty more sun expected on Sunday, the course should continue to firm up. Pressure-free and purring, Lowry gets the vote at 25/1, although I'll split stakes with MATT FITZPATRICK.
Just how tough Royal St George's plays will be determined by the wind, but Fitzpatrick is another who should enjoy a little more roll and he's improved as the week has progressed, clawing his way to three-under having been two-over early on during the first round.
"You know, I've got a chance to beat my best Open Championship finish," he said after a third-round 68. "Obviously as things stand I'm well behind where I want to be with the leaders and stuff. It's just about trying to finish the best I can now in my opinion, and hopefully same tomorrow or a bit lower it would be a great week in the end."
Fitz signed off with a birdie and can keep the ball rolling, accounting for playing partner Lanto Griffin in their two-ball (1230 BST). Double him up with RICHARD MANSELL, by all accounts loving his Open debut and hitting the ball well, but if you are doing so don't lie in as the last-named is off at 0810 BST with Poom Saksansin, who has barely played this year and will do well to beat a young Englishman who is going places.
Later in the day the very best bet is surely KEVIN STREELMAN to beat Marcel Siem (1345 BST), who has done fabulously well to keep things going following last week's Challenge Tour win but might just fold at the end of a gruelling fortnight.
The likeable German leaves everything out there on the course and there were few things more impressive than the way he responded to his sole mistake in round three, a shocking eight after he drove it out of bounds at the 14th hole.
However, Streelman's overall form is on a completely different level, and he deserves to be one of the shortest-priced favourites on the coupon. He's been eighth and 15th in two major appearances so far this season, don't forget, and has not been in the heat of battle this week as Siem has.
Any freshness advantage helps but without it, the American would look overpriced at 5/6 anyway. That's the price put up by Sky Bet but there's probably a bit of juice in 4/6, too, and he should win.
Finally, MACKENZIE HUGHES brought much stronger form into this tournament than Dylan Frittelli and again deserves a little more respect (1405 BST).
For what it's worth I would make him favourite, whereas those firms who've gone up early give the edge to Frittelli, so a small bet is advised. Hopefully he can yet challenge Corey Conners for top Canadian honours while he's at it.
Posted at 2215 BST on 17/07/21
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