The final round of the Abu Dhabi Championship could hardly be set up better. Ben Coley sets the scene before picking out a three-ball double.
Golf betting tips: Abu Dhabi final round
2pts Jordan and McIlroy to win their three-balls at 9/2 (General)
The way the Abu Dhabi Championship has unfolded makes you wonder if higher forces are at work. They aren't, obviously, and it might be more appropriate to question whether the tournament is some AI-generated hallucination. Maybe James Hahn was right and we are living out the film Inception except it's about golf. That, or the DP World Tour really has fallen into the dream scenario at what has been a difficult time.
This is a tournament some felt would be cancelled and it's still too soon to breathe a sigh of relief, those evacuation plans still a thing. However, as far as what's happened in golf itself, how's this for a check list? Jon Rahm plays like Jon Rahm again. Rory McIlroy storms into contention despite a first-round eight which saw him deal with a difficult ruling very differently to a certain LIV Golf star in the Open last summer. And while all this is happening, LIV itself moves to wind down operations via the US courts.
I'm not sure Guy Kinnings could've drawn up anything more satisfying than this and, assuming all goes to plan not just on Sunday but in the following week's DP World Tour Championship, it will have been one of the most significant and rewarding fortnights in memory.
As for what happens in the golf itself, where Rahm leads Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Laporta by one, with McIlroy a shot further back, so much depends on the man in front.
Rahm at his best would be devilishly difficult to beat from here. On the main tours, he's seven from nine with a clear lead entering Sunday and would be eight from 10 had he not been forced to withdraw with Covid when six clear in the Memorial. Take out the first chance he had, the one he squandered at Sawgrass in 2019, and he's seven from eight. The one other time he didn't win, he lost by a shot.
That's a phenomenal record befitting of a phenomenal golfer and for the most part, including in Mexico earlier this year, he was similarly effective on the LIV Golf circuit. But since he made the switch, we've also seen a fragility on the few occasions he's been in the mix outside of it. Most notably, Rahm capitulated from the lead in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. The following spring, he made an exhilarating charge in the PGA Championship but, just as victory seemed plausible, he fumbled the opportunity.
Given that his eight starts dating back to the US Open represent some of the worst form of his professional career, Rahm had big questions to answer entering this tournament and while he's gone a long way to doing so, it's going to be fascinating to see how he deals with the lead. My inclination is to expect him to prove what a phenomenal golfer he is, but as he's also ridden a hot putter at times, I don't know as I could bet on it at 6/4 or so.
Some of the questions Rahm faced also applied to Hatton, who had missed three cuts in five since returning to the DP World Tour and never finished better than 27th. We were on Hatton for three of these appearances but to be frank, having disappointed in each of them, he made no appeal here. Yet Hatton is another Middle East-proven player (a past champion in this, in fact) with abundant class and, just maybe, a sense of freedom and relief that has helped on some level.
Given their quality and the looming presence of McIlroy, who has made 25 birdies in three rounds, it's hard to envisage Laporta winning for the first time after 200-odd attempts, just as it is the impressive Matthew Jordan after a poor back nine. Maybe Adam Scott and David Puig could have a say at a course which yields a lot of birdies, but surely the winner can be found among the names Rahm, Hatton, and McIlroy.
At the prices I'd lean towards Hatton, but I don't think there's a bet here.
There might be in the three-balls as I'm a bit surprised MCILROY isn't odds-on to beat Scott and Puig. It goes without saying that his golf has been of a slightly higher level when you consider he has that eight on the card from Thursday and he's also the one most likely to continue improving given the time off he'd taken prior to this week.
McIlroy also has the enormous carrot of an eighth Race to Dubai title to pursue and it would be so very like him to bounce out of the LIV Golf news into a famous fortnight. My sense is he'll come up just shy here then likely win next week, a formula we've seen before, but I expect him to beat his playing partners and make life uncomfortable for the two former LIV players in the group behind him.
JORDAN also appeals, as he's once again been superb from tee-to-green. I really believe this is a top-class player in the making if he can get over the line in the next six or so months and while it seems unlikely that'll happen here, I can't stress enough how good his long-game is at the moment.
Jayden Schaper and Nathan Kimsey both arrived in modest form and these shorter hitters are less well-suited to Yas Links in calm conditions. There's also a bit of pressure on Schaper as he's one good round away from the PGA Tour and will be desperate to haul himself over the line having been unable to quite do so as yet, despite winning back-to-back at the beginning of the season.
Chances are Schaper will earn a card however this round goes but I do think it'll feel like a very big day in his career and while he has stacks of talent and a good head on his shoulders, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest were he to struggle. Regardless, Jordan is the best player with by far the best long-game among this trio, right now at least, and that should make him difficult to beat.
Posted at 15:20 GMT on 04/11/25
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