xG Premier League review: Gameweek 23 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Tottenham 2-0 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 1.29-0.41
• Scorers: Emerson Royal 56', Son Heung-Min 72'

Son Heung-min responded to being dropped with a goal to help Tottenham beat West Ham 2-0 and move back into the Premier League top four.

Son’s poor form this season saw him left out of the starting line-up for only a second time when fit but he found the net four minutes after his introduction to add to Emerson Royal’s classy 56th-minute opener.

It helped Spurs take advantage of Newcastle’s slip-up against Liverpool by moving above the Magpies into fourth to aid the recovery of manager Antonio Conte, who remains in Italy after gallbladder surgery.

Defeat for West Ham ended their three-match unbeaten run in the division and ensured they stay in the bottom three.

Manchester United 3-0 Leicester

• Scorers: Rashford 25' 56', Sancho 61'

Marcus Rashford’s remarkable form continued with a thumping brace as Manchester United survived a sloppy start to comfortably beat Leicester in the Premier League.

The 25-year-old has scored 16 goals in 17 matches since the World Cup to take his tally to 24, breaking his previous single-season scoring record of 22 for his boyhood club before February was out.

Rashford’s confident, low opener came after David De Gea had kept United in it against Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester, denying Harvey Barnes and Kelechi Iheanacho with outstanding saves.

It allowed the Spaniard to equal Peter Schmeichel’s club record of 180 clean sheets and provided the platform for victory, with Rashford’s second awarded after a VAR review before substitute Sancho struck.

The three points keeps United’s Premier League title hopes alive and sets them up nicely for a pair of crucial games, with the return leg against Barcelona followed by the Carabao Cup final against Newcastle.

SATURDAY

Aston Villa 2-4 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 0.34-3.37
• Fairness rating: 82.74
• Watkins 5', Coutinho 31' | Saka 16', Zinchenko 61', Martinez OG 90+3', Martinelli 90+8'

Arsenal needed two stoppage-time goals to beat Aston Villa and deservedly return to the top of the Premier League table.

The Gunners trailed at the break following an opening half of low-quality chances (xG: AVL 0.23-0.12 ARS) which saw Ollie Watkins and Philippe Coutinho strike either side of a Bukayo Saka equaliser.

Once Oleksandr Zinchenko had fired in from the edge of the box just after the hour, Arsenal pushed for a winner only for their best chance to be uncharacteristically spurned from 12 yards by Martin Odegaard (0.35) in the 77th minute with the goal gaping.

But just as time looked to be running out, a 25-yard strike from Jorginho cannoned off the crossbar and against the back of the head of former Arsenal man Emiliano Martinez.

Gabriel Martinelli then broke away to tap into an empty net after the Villa keeper had gone up for a late corner.

Victory not only ended a three-game winless run, but a three-game run in which each opponent had also created more xG.

Slump over.

Brentford 1-1 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 0.78-1.10
• Janelt 90+6' | Eze 69'

Vitaly Janelt snatched a dramatic Brentford injury-time equaliser against Crystal Palace to stretch their unbeaten run to 11 matches.

Palace were on the brink of a first win in 2023 after substitute Eberechi Eze headed them in front.

Eze’s goal was his fourth of the season and only shot-shy Palace’s 21st from their 23 Premier League matches.

The visitors also successfully shackled Bees sharp-shooter Ivan Toney, with Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen rock solid at the back.

But in the sixth minute of stoppage time another sub, Janelt, struck to secure a 1-1 draw for the high-flying hosts.

Brighton 0-1 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 2.75-0.29
• Fairness rating: 26.88
• Soloman 88'

Substitute Manor Solomon came back to haunt former boss Roberto De Zerbi as Fulham snatched a dramatic 1-0 Premier League win over fellow high-fliers Brighton.

Israel international Solomon, who played under De Zerbi at Shakhtar Donetsk, struck two minutes from time at the Amex Stadium after Albion had dominated.

Solly March and Facundo Buonanotte had goals disallowed for the Seagulls, who failed to score in the top flight for the first time since October, despite registering 21 attempts.

Fulham, without star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic due to a minor injury, struggled for a foothold in the game for the majority of the afternoon before the late twist boosted their hopes of European qualification at the expense of their hosts.

Loanee Solomon’s second goal in as many matches moves Marco Silva’s men above Brighton into sixth spot, albeit they have played two games more.

Chelsea 0-1 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 1.95-0.75
• Fairness rating: 44.17
• Ward-Prowse 45+1'

Chelsea’s season sunk to a new and alarming low as they were beaten 1-0 at Stamford Bridge by the Premier League’s bottom side Southampton.

A converted free-kick from James Ward-Prowse on the stroke of half-time put the Saints’ captain one goal behind David Beckham in the competition’s all-time standings, and sent Graham Potter’s team to a fourth consecutive winless match in the league.

With five of the club’s eight January signings in the staring XI, Potter saw his team labour to find any invention against a Saints side set up by interim boss Ruben Selles to frustrate the hosts’ expensively assembled attacking cavalry. Victory in their first match since the sacking of Nathan Jones was everything they deserved.

Chelsea have scored just once at home in 2023, and the lack of a recognised striker was made painfully apparent yet again.

Everton 1-0 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 1.70-0.79
• Fairness rating: 90.13
• Coleman 64+1'

Seamus Coleman’s freakish goal was the stroke of luck Everton needed to lift them out of the relegation zone and plunge managerless Leeds into it following their 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park.

New manager Sean Dyche knew he would need some good fortune after the Premier League’s lowest scorers failed to make a January signing despite the injury-prone striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin struggling for fitness all season.

But even he could not have envisaged winning his second successive home match in the manner they did after the Toffees captain’s attempted cross caught out goalkeeper Ilan Meslier at his near post.

Everton’s long-serving Irishman is the club’s lucky charm as they have never lost in all 28 matches in which he has scored and if they can keep eking out home wins like this – which lifted them a point clear of the bottom three – then survival is a realistic possibility.

The same cannot be said for Leeds, whose 10th match without a win dropped them to 19th after fellow strugglers Southampton and Bournemouth both won.

Nott'm Forest 1-1 Man City

• Infogol xG: 0.84-3.22
• Fairness rating: 61.67
• Wood 84' | Silva 41'

Nottingham Forest delivered another twist in the Premier League title race as Chris Wood’s late goal saw them snatch a 1-1 draw against Manchester City at the City Ground.

City looked prime to return to the top of the table after Arsenal’s lunchtime win over Aston Villa when they went ahead through Bernardo Silva’s first-half stunner.

But a string of missed chances after the break, including two from Erling Haaland, proved costly and Wood’s first goal for Forest in the 83rd minute saw them take a point.

The draw, which should have been off the table for the hosts, means the Gunners now hold a two-point lead over City at the top of the table with a game in hand.

How big these two dropped points will be in the title race remains to be seen, but Pep Guardiola will be sick to the stomach that the game was not wrapped up.

Wolves 0-1 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 1.19-0.94
• Fairness rating: 63.69
• Tavernier 49'

Marcus Tavernier marked his return from injury with a winner off his thigh as Bournemouth snatched a vital 1-0 victory in their relegation battle with Wolves.

The midfielder, who was making his first start since November, flicked in Dominic Solanke’s cross in the 49th minute at Molineux to end the Cherries’ long winless run.

It was the south-coast club’s first league triumph since the World Cup break and their first since confirming Gary O’Neil as full-time manager in November.

Tavernier’s goal was also only their third in that time and, while there was an element of fortune about it, there was no denying its value.

Until then Wolves, seeking a third successive win, had been the brighter side but, while the contest was an open one, there was a distinct lack of quality in front of goal.

Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.01-2.18
• Fairness rating: 60.61

Nick Pope’s Carabao Cup final dream went up in smoke as Liverpool put themselves back into the race for the top four with a 2-0 win at Newcastle.

The England goalkeeper was dismissed 22 minutes into a pulsating Premier League contest at St James’ Park for handling outside his penalty area and will be suspended for Sunday’s clash with Manchester United at Wembley.

With Martin Dubravka having already played for United in the competition during his loan spell earlier this season and Karl Darlow on loan at Hull, former Liverpool keeper Loris Karius looks set to be handed a debut he could not have expected.

However, the Magpies’ hopes of extending their unbeaten league run to a club-record 18 games had already been fatally wounded by goals from Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo inside the opening 17 minutes as the visitors – the only side to beat Newcastle in the league this season – ruthlessly exploited the space behind central defenders Fabian Schar and Sven Botman to run out 2-0 winners.

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