xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 22 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

SUNDAY

Tottenham 1-0 Man City

• Infogol xG: 1.38-1.02
• Fairness rating: 77.66
• Scorers: H Kane 15'
• Sent off: Cristian Romero 87'

Manchester City failed to capitalise on Arsenal slip up as Pep Guardiola's side lost 1-0 at Tottenham.

The Sky Blues have now lost back-to-back away games in the Premier League and remain five points adrift of the league leaders having played a game more.

Despite having 25-goal top goalscorer Erling Haaland, City failed to create enough quality chances (1.02 xG) on the day and it was a frustrating evening for the Norwegian as his team-mates failed to spot his runs in behind.

It was a huge three points for Spurs, who keep their hopes of the top four alive - they move to within one point of Newcastle in fourth, having played a game more. They had to do so without manager Antonio Conte, who watched on from home after undergoing keyhole surgery.

It was also a historic match as Harry Kane as his early goal was his 267th for Tottenham - moving him above Jimmy Greaves as their all-time top goalscorer - while it was also his 200th in the Premier League.

Cristian Romero saw red after a second booking late on, but Spurs held on as it proved to be another frustrating afternoon for the Citizens.

Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds

• Infogol xG: 0.30-1.00
• Fairness rating: 48.73
• Scorers: B Johnson 14'

Nottingham Forest extended their Premier League unbeaten run to five games with a 1-0 victory over relegation rivals Leeds.

Steve Cooper's side created very little, with an early well-taken volley from Brennan Johnson (0.08 xG) on the edge of the box proving to be the difference.

Leeds had a greater share of possession (69%) and edged the xG with 1.00, but were unable to break down a tough Forest defence, with an impressive debut performance from on-loan goalkeeper Keylor Navas.

The Whites' best chance fell to Luis Sinisterra (0.46 xG) in the first half, as he blasted over from six yards after Wilfried Gnonto put it on a plate for him with the square ball.

It was a huge blow to lose to their rivals and it extends the run to just two wins in 17 Premier League games for Jesse Marsch's side, piling on the pressure from the American who was well backed in the January transfer window.

SATURDAY

By Jake Osgathorpe

Newcastle 1-1 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 1.36 - 1.09
• Fairness rating: 70.00
• Scorers: Wilson 3'; Paqueta 32'

Top-four chasing Newcastle were held at home by West Ham in a game that was very evenly contested.

The Magpies won the xG battle for the 16th time in 21 games this season, but didn't create anywhere near as much as they usually do at St James' Park.

Heading into the game, Eddie Howe's side were averaging 2.43 xGF per game, so West Ham deserve plenty of credit for limiting the high-fliers to just 1.36.

The Hammers remain just a point above the drop zone, but the signs are there that they are back trending in a positive direction.

Wolves 3-0 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.84 - 1.82
• Fairness rating: 70.00
• Scorers: Matip (og) 5', Dawson 12', Neves 71'

Wolves added to Liverpool's misery on Saturday as they ran out 3-0 winners at Molineux.

Julen Lopetegui's side had scored just six home goals all season prior to this game, but this current Liverpool side are vulnerable.

Prior to the game, Klopp's men had allowed an average of 1.99 xGA per away game this season, so it is absolutely no surprise to see even one of the league's worst attacking teams rack up the chances - finishing with 2.84 xG.

I mentioned in my Super 6 column pre-game that the Reds are showing an alarming drop off in attack of late - to accompany an already poor defensive process - and Klopp's side again drew a blank here.

It really is hugely concerning. The only thing keeping Liverpool afloat and in the top half this season was their attack, but if that has started to seriously falter and their defensive process doesn't improve, a bottom-half finish is on the cards.

The above graph shows the closing of the blue line (attack) and orange line (defence) since the start of last season. If things continue, we will start to see a lot of orange - which is a really negative sign.

As for Wolves, they deserved this win and climb up to 15th. Since Lopetegui's appointment they have won three of six and lost only to the two Manchester clubs.

Manchester United 2-1 Crystal Palace

• Infogol xG: 2.20 - 1.53
• Fairness rating: 92.26
• Scorers: Fernandes (pen) 7', Rashford 62'; Schlupp 76'
• Sent off: Casemiro 70'

Manchester United were cruising to victory before Casemiro's second-half dismissal, but managed to hang on despite Crystal Palace pushing hard.

The Red Devils really are making Old Trafford a fortress once again, with this win their sixth straight in the league, and their eighth in 10 this season.

Marcus Rashford scored yet again for Erik ten Hag's side. He has now netted six times in seven league games since the restart.

Across those seven games, he has averaged a huge 0.63 xG/95 which is elite-level for a wide forward.

As for Palace, they are on a really bad run of form, and their process this season has reverted back to levels we saw at the back end of Roy Hodgson's tenure. Worrying signs.

Aston Villa 2-4 Leicester

• Infogol xG: 1.74 - 1.86
• Fairness rating: 74.79
• Scorers: Watkins 9', Souttar (og) 32'; Maddison 12', Iheanacho 41', Tete 45+2', Praet 79'

It was a much-needed win for Leicester in an entertaining game at Villa Park, as they twice came from behind before taking control of the match.

Brendan Rodgers' side were incredibly efficient on the day, scoring four times from eight shots equating to 1.86 xG, with Infogol calculating that they had just an 11% chance of netting four from the quality of opportunities they created.

At the other end, Leicester again conceded twice, meaning it's five times in their last six league matches in which they have shipped multiple goals.

Villa suffer only their second defeat under Unai Emery, failing to create enough 'big chances'.

Brentford 3-0 Southampton

• Infogol xG: 2.39 - 0.73
• Fairness rating: 84.59
• Scorers: Mee 41', Mbuemo 44', Jensen 80'

It was a very comfortable day out for Brentford as they hammered bottom side Southampton.

The Bees continued their incredible home form, with this success meaning they have won six and drawn four of their 11 home matches, averaging 1.90 xGF and 1.23 xGA per game.

That is one of the best home processes in the entire division, and is the backbone of the stellar season they are currently enjoying. They remain seventh and just three points behind fifth-placed Tottenham.

As for Saints, it feels like one step forward and two steps back. They beat Everton just a few weeks ago but back-to-back defeats in which they have created a combined 1.56 xGF and failed to score sees them rooted to the bottom of the table.

Brighton 1-0 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 2.02 - 1.02
• Fairness rating: 90.18
• Scorers: Mitoma 87'

Brighton scored late on to beat Bournemouth at the Amex and continue their excellent run of form since the restart.

Kaoru Mitoma was the match-winner yet again, with the victory being the Seagulls' fourth in their last six league games, a run that has seen them close the gap on fifth-placed Spurs to just two points.

The win was fully deserved, as Roberto Di Zerbi's men created an abundance of chances yet again, something that is becoming a regular occurrence.

They've averaged 1.77 xGF per game since the restart.

Defeat for Bournemouth keeps them in the bottom three, and extends their winless run in the league to six.

In fact, Gary O'Neil's side have lost nine of their last 11, and the Cherries have won the xG battle in just three of their 21 league games this season.

Everton 1-0 Arsenal

• Infogol xG: 1.90 - 0.75
• Fairness rating: 94.17
• Scorers: Tarkowski 60'

The Sean Dyche era at Everton got off to the best possible start as his new side beat league leaders Arsenal 1-0.

The Toffees were excellent on the day and fully deserved the win, creating by far the better of the chances while looking incredibly solid at the back.

Arsenal were limited to just 0.75 xG by their hosts, the lowest xG total Mikel Arteta's side have managed in the Premier League this season, with Conor Coady's off-the-line block from Bukayo Saka the closest they came to scoring.

The Dychian effect was evident, as Everton pressed and ran hard from the off, giving Arsenal no space whatsoever.

The home side threatened most from set-pieces, but their xG total of 1.90 means this - against the league's best travelling defence according to xG - was their best attacking performance since October 1 when beating Southampton and producing a figure of 2.58.

All signs are hugely encouraging for Everton, while this was only the second time this season Arsenal have been well beaten on the xG battle, the other being a 1-0 win over Leeds (xG: LEE 2.35 - 0.86 ARS).

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