xG Premier League Review: Gameweek 19 scorelines according to expected goals

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
• This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Chelsea 0-1 Manchester City

• Infogol xG: 0.65 - 1.58
• Fairness rating: 92.04
• Scorers: Mahrez 63'

Riyad Mahrez climbed off the bench to fire Manchester City to a 1-0 win at Chelsea and cut the deficit to Premier League leaders Arsenal back to five points.

City, held to a draw by Everton on New Year’s Eve, were facing more frustration against an injury-hit yet enterprising Chelsea side at Stamford Bridge.

But less than three minutes after coming on as substitutes with an hour gone, Jack Grealish teed up Mahrez for the winner which keeps Arsenal firmly in their sights.

It also inflicted another defeat on Chelsea, still looking unconvincing under Graham Potter, but who gave City plenty of problems, particularly in the first half despite a double injury blow (first half xG: CHE 0.43 - 0.19 MCI).

Crystal Palace 0-4 Tottenham

• Infogol xG: 0.92 - 1.48
• Fairness rating: 64.65
• Scorers: Kane 48', 53', Doherty 68', Son Heung-min 72'

Tottenham blew Crystal Palace away in the second half, after a dull opening 45 minutes, to get back to winning ways in the Premier League.

It was an extremely clinical display from Spurs, who scored four times from chances equating to just 1.48 xGF.

Infogol calculates that they had just a 6% chance of hitting four on the night, with the chance of them failing to score at all nearly four times higher (23.5%).

Harry Kane scored twice from four shots equating to 0.56 xG, continuing his good scoring season. His brace means his total stands at 15 this term from 11.7 xG, suggesting he is on course for yet another excellent finishing campaign.

Since Infogol began collecting data in 2014, Kane has only underperformed his xG in one of eight seasons (not including 22/23).

At the other end of the pitch, it was the first time since Bournemouth away that Spurs had limited their opponents to less than 1.0 xGA, while the clean sheet was their first in eight games.

Palace struggled offensively, creating no 'big chances', as they suffer back-to-back heavy home defeats following a 3-0 loss at Selhurst Park against Fulham.

Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest

• Infogol xG: 0.63 - 1.32
• Fairness rating: 86.29
• Scorers: Awoniyi 27'

Nottingham Forest climbed out of the relegation zone and up to 15th with a deserved 1-0 win at bottom side Southampton.

A first half goal from Taiwo Awoniyi was the difference, and saw Forest register their first away win of the campaign, but the victory came thanks to their best defensive display of the season to date.

It was the first time this season that Forest have allowed less than 1.0 xGA in an away game, with Steve Cooper's side having major defensive trouble on the road prior to St. Mary's.

As for Southampton, things haven't gone at all to plan for their new boss Nathan Jones, who has seen his side lose all four league contests.

Attacking issues remain clear, with his Saints team averaging just 0.89 xGF per game.

Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves

• Infogol xG: 0.97 - 0.97
• Fairness rating: 99.61
• Scorers: Ings 78' | Podence 12'

You couldn't get a much 'fairer' draw than what we saw at Villa Park on Wednesday, as Aston Villa and Wolves drew 1-1.

The pair generated exactly the same xG total, 0.97, on the night, making this one of the 'fairest' results of the season to date.

In fact, only Everton's 1-0 defeat at home to Chelsea (99.70) and Crystal Palace's 3-1 win over Aston Villa (99.95) rank as 'fairer' results.

For Villa, it extends their impressive start in terms of results (W3, D1, L1) under Unai Emery, while their defensive process also continues to trend positively, with this the fourth of five games in which they have allowed less than 1.0 xGA.

Wolves still have work to do, especially in attack, having generated just 2.87 xGF in their three games under Julen Lopetegui, but they are looking as good at the back.

Leeds 2-2 West Ham

• Infogol xG: 1.36 - 1.50
• Fairness rating: 96.67
• Scorers: Gnoto 27', Rodrigo 70' | Paqueta (45' pen), Scamacca 46'

Goals either side of the half time break helped West Ham halt their losing streak, though a 70th minute Rodrigo goal denied them three points.

A draw was a fair result based on the quality of chances created in the game.

In the bigger picture, West Ham continue to have issues in attack. David Moyes' side have averaged just 0.77 xGF per game across their last six league contests.

Leeds were much better defensively in this one than against Manchester City (4.08 xGA) and Newcastle (2.85 xGA), which is a positive for the Whites.

Everton 1-4 Brighton

• Infogol xG: 1.26 - 2.45
• Fairness rating: 82.42
• Scorers: Gray 92' (pen) | Mitoma 14', Ferguson 51', March 54', Groß 57'

Brighton bounced back from their defeat to Arsenal with a convincing 4-1 victory over Everton at Goodison Park.

Three goals in seven second-half minutes put the game to bed, with Everton's goal coming as a result of a late penalty.

It was yet another poor result and performance for the Toffees, who struggled to create throughout the contest.

Frank Lampard's side could only create 0.46 xG prior to Demarai Gray's 92nd minute penalty, failing to compete at any stage of the game.

For Brighton, it was the third time in their last six Premier League games where they have posted an xG figure higher than 2.00.

Arsenal 0-0 Newcastle

• Infogol xG: 1.04 - 1.10
• Fairness rating: 98.10
• Scorers:

Arsenal moved a point further ahead of Manchester City but felt frustrated by a well organised Newcastle side in a 0-0 draw at the Emirates.

Both sides had opportunities to strike - with Infogol giving the game a very high 98.10 fairness rating - but it was the hosts who looked the more likely as time went on.

Newcastle appeared to settle for a point and went into game management mode in the latter stages, moving them up to second in the Premier League's 'away standings'.

The underlying numbers mean that Newcastle have posted 1.00 xG or above in each of their last eight league contests, while also becoming the first team to take points off Arsenal in front of their own supporters this season.

Manchester United 3-0 Bournemouth

• Infogol xG: 2.43 - 0.74
• Fairness rating: 84.89
• Scorers: Casemiro 23', Shaw 49', Rashford 86'

Manchester United continued their good form following the restart with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Bournemouth.

Casemiro's first-half goal gave the hosts the lead, with Luke Shaw and Marcus Rashford striking in the second as the Cherries were unable to find a response.

It means that United have posted 6.95 xG in the three league games since the World Cup ended, conceding just 2.12 over the same period.

West Ham (1.07 xG) are the only visiting side to post above 1.00 xG in the last five Premier League contests at Old Trafford.

Leicester 0-1 Fulham

• Infogol xG: 1.48 - 1.47
• Fairness rating: 69.80
• Scorers: Mitrovic 17'

Aleksandar Mitrović's early goal was the difference as Fulham's fine season continued with a 1-0 victory away at Leicester.

Mitrović's 17th minute strike was one of three big chances in the contest - with the Foxes seeing the higher xG by the smallest of margins.

While Marco Silva's men deserve great credit as they sit 7th in the Premier League table, they do possess an xGD of -5.4 after their 18 games.

They have also only posted the higher xG total in three of their nine away league contests this season, with one of those being the draw away at Wolves in early August.

That being said, the form of their last nine games compared to the first nine shows that they are seeing improvement. They had an xGD of -9.8 in the first-half of their fixture list so far, with +4.4 in the nine since.

Brentford 3-1 Liverpool

• Infogol xG: 2.48-1.96
• Fairness rating: 75.99%
• Scorers: Konate OG 19', Wissa 42', Mbuemo 84' | Oxlaide-Chamberlain 50'

Brentford caused an upset by beating Liverpool at home, and the result was well deserved for Thomas Frank's men.

The Reds couldn't deal with their hosts, shipping nearly 2.5 xG, as their defence continues to be a major concern.

Jurgen Klopp's side have now conceded an average of 1.99 xGA per game when playing on the road this season, showing that this performance was no flash in the pan.

On the road, Liverpool have shipped multiple 'big chances' (0.35 xG+) in five of eight games, conceding at least three such chances in three of them.

All of those figures paint a very ugly picture of where Liverpool are right now. They are a team who have no problem creating chances but simply can't stop their opponents from doing the same.

Their next away game? Against a Brighton team who have clicked into attacking gear under Roberto Di Zerbi.

As for Brentford, their performances against the 'big six' need highlighting.

The Bees have played five of the six at home which has to be taken into consideration, but Frank's side have won three, drawn two and lost just once against the league's elite.

Across those six games, Brentford have averaged 1.98 xGF and 1.28 xGA per game. I don't think I've ever seen a process that good against the big six after playing all of them once.

The Bees are currently unbeaten in six, winning three, having shown that they have no problem creating opportunities. They could kick on up the table again with a run of Bournemouth, Leeds and Southampton.

Brentford are a lofty seventh now, but there's no reason they can't be higher by the end of the month.

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