World Cup qualifying betting tips: Bosnia & Herzegovina v Finland; Belgium v Estonia
Liam Kelly looks at Saturday's European World Cup qualifiers, picking out his best bets in the matches not involving the home nations.
Football betting tips: European World Cup qualifying
2pts Belgium to win with -3 handicap v Estonia at 13/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Bosnia & Herzegovina to beat Finland and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Belgium v Estonia
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Belgium 1/25 | Draw 12/1 | Estonia 33/1
I won't profess to know an awful lot about the ins and outs of Estonia's national team, but their position speaks volumes, sitting second-bottom of Group E on four points.
Although they have gained those points in the last three fixtures, this isn't the toughest of groups, and Estonia now face the best team in it by a distance.
Belgium suffered two defeats in the Nations League finals, but their record in World Cup qualifying is outstanding, holding a +17 goal difference across only six games.
Roberto Martínez's squad is stacked with class, even without the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Youri Tielemans and the exciting Jérémy Doku. They should brush aside Estonia with relative ease no matter what line-up he puts forward, so BELGIUM TO WIN WITH -3 HANDICAP looks good value here.
The selection would have landed in the reverse fixture if not for a late consolation for the minnows in a 5-2 defeat, which also featured an unlikely early goal for Estonia.
At home, Belgium will completely dominate despite already winning the group. It's perhaps a chance for those on the fringes to make a case for starting for the highest-ranked team in international football right now.
Score prediction: Belgium 5-0 Estonia (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Finland
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 21/20 | Draw 11/5 | Finland 13/5
This is a key fixture in Group D, as Bosnia & Herzegovina and Finland both still hold chances of making a play-off spot.
Bosnia & Herzegovina's 2-0 win over Kazakhstan and 1-1 draw with Ukraine during the last international break gives them the opportunity to move above Finland with victory in Zenica, occupying fourth place and sitting just one spot behind Saturday's opponents.
The goal of three points for the hosts looks entirely possible, too.
Euro 2020 offered us the chance to see the type of team Finland are - a rigid side that soaks up pressure without presenting much of a threat in attack, averaging just 0.53 expected goals for (xGF) per game in that tournament.
Similarly, Bosnia & Herzegovina are rarely involved in high-scoring games, so we can expect a tense affair between the two sides.
I think the home side have a comfortable edge in quality, making BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS IN THE MATCH a solid proposition at 6/4 but they have a tendency to play to the level of their opponents, often giving good teams a tough game without seeing much success.
Expect the hosts to dominate the ball in the early Sunday match-up, and with the likes of Miralem Pjanić and Edin Džeko available, expect Bosnia & Herzegovina to leap above Finland in the group with what could well be an ugly win.
Score prediction: Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0 Finland (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
World Cup qualifying best bets
- Bosnia & Herzegovina to beat Finland and Under 3.5 Goals in the match at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
- Belgium to win with -3 handicap v Estonia at 13/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (11/11/21)
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