Women's Euro final tips: England vs Spain best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Women's Euro final

2pts Spain to win in 90 minutes at 4/5 (William Hill, Betfred)

1pt Aitana Bonmati to score or assist at 7/4 (Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Kick-off: 17:00 BST, Sunday

TV: BBC One/ITV1

Live odds, form and stats

From Basel to uh… Basel. It all comes down to this, the field of 16 nations cut down to two over the last three and a half weeks. Thirty matches played and, it’s of course, the two pre-tournament favourites who are meeting in Sunday’s final.

After a dramatic shootout win having come from two goals down against Sweden, England again made life hard for themselves in the semi-finals, needing 119 minutes to get the better of a flagging Italy side.

Just when it looked like the Lionesses might be paying for that extra hour of football played, Spain were pushed all the way to extra time by a dogged Germany team and needed an Aitana Bonmati winner almost as late as Chloe Kelly’s for England the day before.

Indeed, four of the six knockout matches this summer have been taken, at least, to extra time with two of those taken all the way to spot-kicks. If you think we’ll see a continuation of that form, either team to win on penalties is currently priced at 11/2.

It is well worth pointing out that although Spain have had a knockout game at five of their last six tournaments (including this Euros) that goes beyond the 90 minutes, they’ve never had two during the same tournament. Furthermore, after losing to England in extra time in 2022, Spain have won all three of their last knockout games that couldn’t be decided in 90 minutes.

For England, a feature of the Sarina Wiegman era has been the game-changers the Dutchwoman has been able to introduce into the second half of games.

Having played nine tournament knockout matches (not including Sunday’s final) under their current manager England have found themselves contesting extra-time on no fewer than five occasions, with the Lionesses taken to penalties against Nigeria in the World Cup round of 16 in 2023 as well as against Sweden in the quarter-finals this summer (and if you want to count it, versus Brazil in the 2023 Finalissima at Wembley).

So far this summer, we’ve seen good football and not so good football from both teams, with Spain lacking a little bit of sparkle in the knockouts as both Alexia Putellas and Bonmati have been kept quiet – although Bonmati has had two decisive moments – and for England, it has been about those subs and sheer determination to get through.

Just as Bonmati has had one big moment in each knockout round for Spain, so too has 19-year-old Michelle Agyemang for England, with the Arsenal teenager scoring in both the quarter and semi-finals, she’s currently priced at 9/1 to score last.

What are the best bets?

But what can we actually expect from this game? Well, this will be the third meeting of the two this calendar year following a pair of matches in the Nations League; England’s 1-0 win at Wembley before Spain ran out 2-1 winners in Catalonia, just eight weeks ago.

What we’ve consistently seen from Spain is a vulnerability in defence, with the Spanish backline struggling not just with everyone’s favourite 'route one' football, but with how the spaces behind their aggressive full-backs can be targeted.

It goes without saying that anyone who squares-off against Spain knows they won't have much of the ball, although England have managed around 40% (give or take) possession in their last three meetings. The Lionesses are usually convincingly outshot by La Roja so will need to be clinical, which is something Spain tend to not be.

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It’s a little easy to look at the 2023 World Cup final and assume we’ll see a similar pattern, but Spain have undergone a managerial change since then, as well as plenty of changes far from the pitch following that triumph in Sydney.

Not only are the world champions stronger now, with Esther González causing all sorts of problems as a clear-cut number nine, but Putellas has largely returned to form following her ACL injury, and Bonmati is still warming up after her bout of pre-tournament meningitis.

Additionally, with Millie Bright not in the squad, England’s defence isn’t quite as strong as it was two years ago and while Hannah Hampton has stood up well between the sticks for England, the young goalkeeper is certainly in the firing line.

So, what I’m saying is I think SPAIN WILL WIN this one, with the favourites priced at 3/4 generally to win in 90 minutes or more conservatively 2/5 to lift the trophy. England to win in normal time is priced at 10/3.

The stats firmly favour Spain, but likewise, they favoured Barcelona in the Champions League final back at the end of May and through a combination of fastidious defending from Arsenal and poor finishing from Barcelona, the Gunners pulled off an upset, so it absolutely can be done.

We’ve started to see the goals dissipate in the knockout rounds and this should be a close affair without too many goals and as said, neither have been overly clinical in their recent meetings but there are a few bets to look at, such as Each Team to Have 2+ Corners in Each Half priced at 3/1 or 4 or more shots on target from outside the box which returns at 7/2.

A penalty awarded is priced at 15/8 and both teams to score is pretty short at 8/11.

After racing into pole position to claim the golden boot with four goals in three group games, Esther has been kept quiet since but still leads the way as the tournament top goalscorer, however I expect she’ll be used more to work the defence and help create openings rather than being the hero on Sunday.

Instead I’d look at BONMATI TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 13/10 or even a Claudia Pina anytime goal at 7/5. Pina was the difference off the bench when these two met back in June and if she is named as a substitute again it’s well worth looking at the in-play odds for the Barcelona attacker as she has so frequently been a game-changer.

If I’m suggesting both teams to score, as I do think there is at least a goal out there for the Lionesses, likewise, I’m looking at a Chloe Kelly anytime goal as, like Agyemang, she has been the impact off of the bench for England. Across the starters – and England do have so many options in attack – for this one, I’m going to look at Lauren James to score or assist at 11/5.

One final thing I’d like to highlight as I so often have through these knockout rounds, to mixed success, is a combined bet and for this game. Spain to Win Each Half & Spain to Have Most Corners in Each Half looks generously priced at 16/1.

What more can I say but, for the superstitious out there, it might be worth noting that across their last four competitive meetings, going back to the last Euros, the designated home team has won every time, which bodes well for England.

Odds correct at 1600 BST (25/07/25)

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