Why do Liverpool keep losing? And will they beat RB Leipzig? xG analysis.
Liverpool’s recent plight has been well documented, with defeat at home to Fulham their ninth loss in their last 17 matches across all competitions.
That 1-0 reverse at Anfield was their sixth league loss in a row, and extended their home winless run to eight matches. Jurgen Klopp’s side have scored just twice in that time while conceding 11.
Ultimately, this recent horror run of form has left the reigning Premier League champions in eighth place, with the Reds looking over their shoulder as opposed to up.
Liverpool are outsiders to make the top four, it’s now an unlikely target for the rest of the campaign. But the way in which they are playing currently, they will be lucky to secure European football at all.
With the Europa League's Thursday-Sunday schedule so frowned upon by the big clubs, and a spot in the Europa Conference League quite frankly insulting to a team like Liverpool, it could be Champions League or bust for the Reds.
If the Merseyside outfit hope to compete in Europe's premier competition next season they're probably going to have to win a seventh European cup outright, qualifying as holders.
Elimination in the second leg of their tie with RB Leipzig could represent a premature end to their season.
After a decent performance in the first leg, the Reds hold a 2-0 aggregate lead, but can they progress? And what has happened to the reigning Premier League champions this campaign?
Liverpool’s defence isn’t the issue
Liverpool's terrible title defence has been heavily attributed to their numerous defensive injuries. But a closer look at the numbers – especially recently – and it appears that this isn’t the case.
We can split Liverpool’s season into two even halves; up to the 7-0 win over Crystal Palace and after it. Palace away was the 14th game of the Red’s campaign, and after it they were top of both the actual table and Infogol’s expected goals (xG) table.
In the following 14 games, Liverpool have accumulated the fourth fewest points in the division, but the fifth most expected points (xP). Surprisingly their fall from grace hasn’t been as bad as results suggest.
And even with their debilitating injuries suffered, Liverpool’s defensive xG process has remained extremely consistent over the season, and has actually improved post Palace.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
In the 14 games including the win at Selhurst Park, Liverpool allowed an average of 1.33 expected goals against (xGA) per game, in the following 14 games their xGA per game has been 1.25.
They have played all of the current top seven in that stretch, so given their defensive absences and the playing of Jordan Henderson at centre half, they haven’t been all that bad at the back.
Only six teams have performed better defensively since the 20th December (7-0 win at Palace), based on xGA.
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Attack is to blame for Liverpool’s woes
If it isn’t the defence that is the major issue, then it must be the attack.
In simple goals statistics, the Reds scored 36 in their opening 14 league games, and have notched up just 11 in the past 14. A huge drop off.
Their average of 2.18 expected goals for (xGF) per game was league leading through the first half of the season.
Interestingly, Liverpool have generated 1.65 xGF per game, which does represent a drop of nearly 0.6 xGF, that figure is actually the fifth best in the league across the last 14 games.
While that sounds impressive, 1.65 really is still a huge underachievement for a side that averaged 2.00 in their title winning campaign and 2.07 the season prior.
They are creating less now than they were at the start of the campaign, and that poorer attacking performance is being compounded by a bout of negative variance when it comes to finishing, with the Reds scoring just 11 times from chances equating to 23.1 xGF in the last 14.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have lost their mojo in attacking areas, and are becoming increasingly easier to defend against, as Fulham and Chelsea have most recently shown.
What does that mean for Liverpool v RB Leipzig
First and foremost, the fact that this second leg is being played at a neutral venue in Budapest has to be seen as a positive for Liverpool given their recent record at Anfield.
The change of scenery could bode well for the Reds, as does the fact that they have a 2-0 aggregate lead.
With that cushion pressure won’t be on their attack to score goals and bail them out of a deficit, and instead lends itself to a counter-attack approach which could benefit Liverpool and actually get the best out of their attacking players.
Leipzig must come out of the blocks fast which will present a rare opportunity for Liverpool's attackers to come up against an opponent who don't match up against the with an ultra-defensive low block.
Klopp’s men are in a great position after the first leg to qualify and extend their run in the Champions League, the competition they may have to win to secure elite European football next term.
All in all, performances haven’t been as bad as results suggest this season, and while their attack is going through a rare rough patch, this game could offer some much-needed respite from their recent domestic issues.
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