West Ham and Chelsea do battle in Saturday's early Premier League game, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, providing a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/21 (BetVictor)
West Ham have steadied the ship a bit after a rotten run of six defeats in seven either side of the World Cup break, with David Moyes' side having collected five points from their last four matches - losing only to Wolves.
They sit 17th and just one point above the relegation zone, but rank ninth on expected points (xP) per game, so have been doing a lot right, particularly defensively.
Over the course of the season, the Hammers have allowed just 1.31 xGA per game, with that figure ranking them as the fifth best defensive team in the Premier League.
That is a good starting point for our bet in this one, with West Ham boasting a staunch defence, and visitors Chelsea have that in common with their London rivals.
The Blues, bar a shaky six-game spell before the World Cup break, have been solid defensively, and that has only improved post-break.
In their seven matches since the restart, Graham Potter's side have allowed just 0.94 xGA per game which ranks third best in that period. That sample includes matches against the two best attacking teams based on xGF, Manchester City and Liverpool, as well.
Chelsea come into this game on the back of three straight clean sheets, but at the other end they still aren't quite firing, netting just five times in their last seven.
West Ham have their own attacking struggles, meaning we could be in for a low-scoring game at London Stadium, but with Under 2.5 Goals trading at a general price of 4/6, preference is for the near-even-money available on BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO'.
With two strong defensive units taking on two inconsistent attacking units, chances could be at a premium, so backing at least one side to keep a clean sheet appeals.
This is a bet that has landed in 62% of West Ham's games this season, and 57% of Chelsea's. Combined, this bet has landed in 25 of the pair's 42 matches for a 59% strike-rate, which when turned into odds gives us an implied price of 7/10 as a base starting point, suggesting the 20/21 (51%) is a value price.
West Ham v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/21 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: West Ham 0-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (09/02/22)
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