After two winners from his last three previews, including a 19/10 winner on Thursday night, Joe Rindl has the best bet for Aston Villa's trip to West Ham.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 (Mansion Bet)
West Ham United are sliding. They have tasted three defeats in their last three games, conceding five and scoring just one.
Few would have expected the Hammers to cruise to three wins against title-chasing Liverpool, Southampton and, most recently, European specialists Sevilla, but even still, three losses leaves a sour taste - a testament to how far West Ham have come.
Indeed, boss David Moyes admitted he was proud of his side’s performance against the team second in La Liga last time out, stating: “I thought we ran them really close tonight and I’m sure we’ll run them close when we play them next week as well.”
The London club created an expected goals value of 0.98, a shade under Sevilla’s 1.33 in their 1-0 defeat. Against Liverpool they came equally close being edged out 2.12 to 1.52 in the underlying numbers.
Even in defeat, West Ham remained competitive against Europe’s best.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
West Ham 6/5 | Draw 12/5 | Aston Villa 11/5
Aston Villa finally managed three consecutive wins for the first time this season when they beat strugglers Leeds United at Elland Road last time out.
Since his arrival from Rangers in November, Steven Gerrard has seen his side blow hot and cold, but their recent victories are suggesting this is a team going in the right direction.
Villa’s last three games have all been convincing wins to nil. They ran out 2-0 winners against Brighton, thrashed Southampton 4-0 at home and put three past Leeds.
The expected goals numbers show that those results had been justified too. Infogol had Villa ahead in the xG battle for all three of those fixtures with only Southampton (1.25 xG) posting a total above one.
The West Midlands outfit have conceded just twice in their past five matches and have outscored their opponents on xG on four occasions during that run. Don’t let anybody else convince you differently. The Villains are a good side and will pose a tricky test for West Ham on Sunday.
I’m siding with the unders for my best bet with UNDER 2.5 GOALS appealing at 19/20.
That bet has come through in five of West Ham’s past six fixtures, both in terms of result and xG.
As for Villa, their last two results may have been high scorers, but the three before that read 2-0, 1-0 and 1-0.
The visitors are big overperformers in terms of chance creation. While they racked up an xG of 2.43 in their 4-0 win over the Saints two games ago, that was the just the second time they had reached a figure over 1.74 all season. They’re average xGF per match is a modest 1.16.
On Sunday I fully expect these two teams should produce a close, tight affair and cancel each other out.
West Ham v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (11/03/22)
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