Just two points separate Watford and Southampton as they meet on Saturday afternoon, and with plenty at stake, Jake Pearson thinks this could be a low-scoring affair.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (General)
Things looked to be going from bad to worse for Claudio Ranieri just over an hour into his second game in charge of Watford, his first match having ending in a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Liverpool, and Everton had twice taken the lead against the Hornets after 63 minutes played at Goodison Park on Saturday.
Four goals in the space of 13 minutes completely turned things around for the Italian coach however, a Joshua King hat-trick helping Watford to their third win of the season as they beat the high-flying Toffees 5-2.
It was one of the more surprising results of the season so far, but a deserved one based on expected goals, Watford creating much the better opportunities, but it is also the perfect example of how football can turn on a knife-edge.
Each of Watford’s three wins this season have come in goal-laden matches, with not one of them seeing fewer than four goals. When Watford do it, they do it in a thoroughly entertaining way.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Watford 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Southampton 5/4
But by a similar token, other than their 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle, Watford have failed to score in each of their other Premier League matches this season, failing to find the back of the net on five occasions – only Norwich have drawn more blanks.
Taking out those three wins as well, Watford have created just 3.21 expected goals, an average of just 0.54 xGF per game, so when they don’t fire, they really are flat.
For Southampton it has been a similarly frustrating start to the season, winning just one of their opening nine, and like with Watford, goals have been hard to come by for Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men, netting just eight times this season – the joint-third fewest.
Their attacking process is a little better though, and in fact in better than Watford’s, averaging 1.42 xGF per game, but Southampton’s saving grace so far this season has been their defence, conceding just 12 goals – a better return than the likes of Manchester United, Everton, Leicester and both North London clubs.
Watford may have beaten Everton recently, while Southampton did get the better of Leeds two weeks back, but neither team really come into this fixture in great form - those two wins the only two between them in their last 10 matches combined.
Given Claudio Ranieri’s reputation for adding defensive solidity to teams, as well as the fact that Southampton games have averaged the joint-third fewest goals this season, siding against goals in this match looks the way to go.
Only 44% of Southampton matches this season have seen Over 2.5 Goals, with Watford games returning the same figure. As mentioned previously, only Norwich have failed to score more times than Watford this term, while no team has a higher lose-to-nil ratio than the Hornets.
Games involving teams towards the bottom of the table have been bereft of goals as a rule this season as well. So far there have been 32 matches played between teams that did not finish in last season’s top eight, and 20 of those have finished with fewer than three goals.
Had you backed the Unders in each of those matches, you would have returned more than five points profit to a level stake – or £50+ from £10 stakes - therefore, backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS at a price of 19/20 is the recommended bet in this fixture.
Watford v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 (General)
- Score prediction: Watford 0-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1450 BST (27/10/21)
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