Newcastle travel to Watford for their Saturday 3pm kick-off, and Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Newcastle to win at 23/10 (Bet365)
1pt Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
Two wins from their opening five matches undoubtedly represents a good start to the season for newly-promoted Watford, with Xisco Munoz’ men currently occupying 11th place in the Premier League.
That probably doesn’t tell the whole story though, with Watford still proving something of an enigma.
An opening day victory over Aston Villa was a great way to mark their return to the top flight of English football, but from the 67th minute onwards in that fixture, up until the 17th minute against Norwich last weekend, Watford hadn’t scored a goal, nor had they looked like doing so.
In the three intervening matches, against Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves, Watford created chances equating to just 1.4 Expected Goals For, or 0.47 xGF per match.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Watford 11/8 | Draw 23/10 | Newcastle 2/1
This is an ongoing issue carrying over from last season, and one they will need to address. Despite finishing second in the Sky Bet Championship last term, Watford only managed the sixth most goals in the division, behind 15th-place Blackburn.
Defensively they were the best team in the second-tier, but this season only five teams have conceded more goals than them this term. One of those five teams, is Newcastle.
Steve Bruce’s men are still searching for their first victory of the season, having picked up just two points from their opening matches.
They have faced two of last season’s top six, but they have also faced two of last season’s bottom-half teams in Aston Villa and Southampton.
It has not been all bad for the Magpies however, as while defensively they have been poor, they do hold a threat going the other way, and when looking for the positives surrounding Newcastle there is only one name that can realistically be mentioned: Allan Saint-Maximin.
The Frenchman has been directly involved in four of Newcastle’s six goals this season, scoring two and assisting two, and no matter how Bruce’s men perform, in him, they have a player that can completely turn a game.
Watford and Newcastle are similar teams in many ways. They have recorded the fifth-lowest and second-lowest average possession respectively this season, they both sit in the top half of the table in terms of the amount of long balls played per match, and are both in the bottom five in terms of short passes played.
45% of all Watford’s attacks come from the right, the position on the pitch occupied by Ismaila Sarr, while 43% of all Newcastle’s attacking output emerges from the left-hand-side, the position Saint-Maximin pulls out into.
Newcastle and goals the best bets
These statistics point towards the importance of individual players for both of these teams, with the fixture lining up as a potential shootout between Sarr and Saint-Maximin, and the Frenchman gets the vote in that particular duel.
There is also an argument to be made that Watford’s recent victory over Norwich has been overquantified in terms of its relevance, while Newcastle’s winless run has also had too much emphasis placed on it, not to mention the fact that Newcastle have had a week’s rest, whereas Watford played in the Carabao Cup in midweek, losing 3-1 to Stoke.
In effect, the market has overreacted to the recent form of both sides, and has left NEWCASTLE priced too big at 23/10.
Given the attacking prowess of the individuals mentioned above however, there also looks to be value in siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at a shade of odds-on.
No team’s matches have seen more goals than Newcastle’s this term, with 80% of the Magpies' games also seeing both teams find the back of the net.
Both Watford and Newcastle are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season, and a price of 10/11 for both teams scoring is too big to pass up.
Watford v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Newcastle to win at 23/10 (Bet365)
- 1pt Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
Score prediction: Watford 1-3 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1120 BST (22/09/21)
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