Euro 2020 qualifying preview: Free tips, predictions & best bets for Tuesday's action
The latest international break comes to a conclusion on Tuesday. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets with goals fancied.
Recommended bets
2pts Northern Ireland to score 1+ goals at 6/5
1pt Aleksey Miranchuk to score 2+ goals in San Marino v Russia at 13/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Germany v Northern Ireland
It speaks volumes of Northern Ireland's progression under Michael O'Neill that a draw against the Netherlands feels disappointing.
Yet, that 0-0 outcome in Belfast on Saturday condemned the Green and White Army to the play-offs in March.
It's still a positive campaign though and they are in a good position to reach the finals next summer. Whether Michael O'Neill is in charge for those games remains to be seen.
They faced Germany at Euro 2016 and will be hoping to meet them again beyond Tuesday's meeting. The numbers have disguised what has been a positive campaign for Northern Ireland with fine margins separating them from an automatic qualification place.
The main issue has been converting chances. The penalty miss against the Netherlands being one example, but the fixture against Germany at Windsor Park could have been different had the hosts taken one of the many first-half opportunities they created for themselves.
In fairness to O'Neill's men, they have scored in all three of their away games so far - which includes taking the lead in Rotterdam against the Netherlands in October.
They'll hold some confidence that they can pose a real challenge to the 2014 World Champions on Tuesday, and the odds-against price for the away team to strike seems generous given their track record so far.
Best bet: Northern Ireland to score 1+ goals at 6/5
Opta facts
- Germany are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Northern Ireland, drawing three and winning the last eight in a row since a 0-1 home loss in November 1983.
- Northern Ireland’s only away win against Germany in all competitions came in EURO 1984 qualifying, and a 1-0 victory thanks to a Norman Whiteside goal.
- Northern Ireland have won three of their last four away games in all competitions (L1), as many as they had in the previous 17 such fixtures beforehand (W3 D7 L7).
- Germany have only lost one of their last 32 competitive home games (W25 D6), a 2-4 reverse against Netherlands during this EURO 2020 qualifying campaign. Germany have scored 106 goals across those 32 matches (3.3 per game), including 34 in the last eight (4.3 per game).
- Northern Ireland are winless in their last three qualifying games for the European Championship (D1 L2); they had won 10 of their previous 14 such matches prior to this (D3 L1).
- Eight of the nine goals conceded by Germany in all competitions in 2019 have come in the second half of their games, the only exception being the first goal they shipped this calendar year, a 12th minute Luka Jovic strike for Serbia in March.
- Toni Kroos has been directly involved in six goals in his last six appearances for Germany (four goals, two assists), as many as he had in his previous 26 matches for his national team beforehand (three goals, three assists).
- Against Netherlands last time out, Steven Davis became the first player to miss a penalty for Northern Ireland (excluding shootouts) since David Healy in a friendly against Scotland in August 2008.
San Marino v Russia
One of the big stories of this international break is the fact that San Marino have a goal on their tally - their game against Kazakhstan ending a six-year wait to see the net hit at the right end at home.
They still lost the game, they still have 46 goals against them in just nine qualifying games, but the pure joy in their celebrations afterwards reminds us that international football is not always the boring two weeks away from domestic football that we often believe.
Unfortunately for the hosts, a goal, let alone a win, isn't fancied against a Russia side who dismantled them 9-0 in the reverse fixture.
A best price of 4/1, combined with San Marino's outright 200/1 price, shows the extent of their outsiders tag. These games are often difficult to find value in because they are so one-sided, but there is definitely a case to be made in the goalscorer markets.
Aleksey Miranchuk secured his place back in the side after a period on the sidelines that saw him miss Russia's four games prior to that defeat to Belgium last time out.
We expect to see him line up in one of the winger roles as Russia should revert to a 4-3-3 formation here given the low-standard of opposition. He should also have plenty of opportunities to strike; perfect for a player involved in seven goals in just 13 domestic games this season.
He'll be disappointed not to have grabbed a goal in that easy win when these two sides last met, but the fact he had four shots in total throughout the game gives promise to the chances of at least one here.
It's reflected in his odds-on price to net anytime. Instead, the 13/5 available with Sky Bet for a brace is the best bet for this game.
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