Football betting tips: Europa League
2pts Both teams to score at 19/20 (William Hill)
0.5pt Elfsborg to win the second half at 17/2 (William Hill)
0.25pt Tottenham/Elfsborg in the HT/FT at 100/1 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 9/1
- Yves Bissouma to be carded
- Both teams to score
- Elfsborg +2 handicap
How long will this go on? And how low can Tottenham stoop?
Those are the big questions following yet another league defeat last weekend, and against a side who had lost seven straight and looked hopeless in that time.
At the moment, it seems to be a case of, if you need a result, play Tottenham. Across their last 20 matches in all competitions, Ange Postecoglou's side have won just five times, losing 10.
They've been the team to provide a spark for sides at a low ebb and in need of something, with relegation fighting Ipswich, Everton and Leicester all beating Spurs, while fellow strugglers Wolves got a point. A Roma team struggling mightily at the time also still managed to grab a draw.
Four of those games mentioned were at home, meaning visiting Elfsborg have every reason to be optimistic on Thursday.
Once a fortress, Tottenham Hotspur has been a happy hunting ground for visitors since the start of November, with Spurs winning only two of their last 10 - both in the Carabao Cup, losing five.
The Swedish side head to London in need of a point to secure an unlikely play-off spot, while only a win will guarantee Spurs a top eight finish.
You know what happens next don't you? Pure Spursy-ness. Surely not, right? Right?
What are the best bets?
Well, those who fancy yet another Spurs defeat can back the visitors at a whopping 14/1 and I wouldn't put anyone off given how poor they have looked for such a long time.
Injuries mean the currently available players are knackered, playing twice a week since November, and it's showing. Their second half performances are becoming especially concerning, with the team clearly running out of steam and ideas at the same time.
If we take their last 18 matches in all competitions, break it down into six-match segments, we can see their attacking output in the second 45 is diminishing. The first sample of six games saw them average 0.98 xGF per game after the break, the second set of six saw that average drop to 0.61 and the most recent six matches have seen them generate just 0.51 xGF per game in the second half.
The most concerning factor of that final figure is that they have been trailing three times and drawing twice within the first 10 minutes of the second period, yet have really struggled to create chances to get back in the game or take the lead. Their opponents meanwhile have fared better (0.85 xGF per game in second half)
So, let's have a little fun shall we?
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE will be the staple bet of this preview given Tottenham's defensive issues - they've conceded 37 times in their last 20, an average of 1.85 per game.
Elfsborg scored twice away at AZ Alkmaar and three times at Galatasaray, and have in fact only blanked in one of their seven Europa League matches this season against one of the better defensive sides in the competition (Athletic Bilbao).
BTTS has landed in 14 of Spurs' last 20 matches, and near even money for a repeat here looks large. Yes, Spurs have kept two clean sheets in three home UEL games, but they both came before the mass injury issue, and the tiredness of available players that has compounded things. Plus, they will be playing inexperienced goalkeeper Brandon Austin with January signing Antonin Kinsky ineligible in this competition.
Here comes the interesting part, where we swing for the fences.
Based on Spurs' shortcomings after half-time, we'll back ELFSBORG TO WIN THE SECOND HALF, and put extremely small stakes on the 100/1 shot TOTTENHAM/ELFSBORG in the half-time/full-time market, just in case Spurs go full Spursy. Both bets landed against Leicester at the weekend, while the former also landed in Spurs' last Europa League match.
- CLICK HERE to back Elfsborg to win the second half with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Tottenham/Elfsborg in the HT/FT with Sky Bet
Both are long shots, as Elfsborg rank as the sixth worst team in the Europa League according to Opta's world football power rankings, but the Swedish side need a result here to seal an extremely unlikely play-off finish.
Add in the fact that the Swedish league is still out of season, therefore meaning Elfsborg have a serious rest advantage even if Spurs on paper have the quality, and both bets start to appeal more. And while it may seem a negative for Elfsborg not to be playing competitive league football, so far it hasn't affected them, as since they returned to finish the Europa League league phase, they have won both matches against Qarabag and Nice.
You never know, especially with Tottenham, so we'll chance the miracle result for Elfsborg but in a big priced way, hoping Spurs' second half drop-offs continue.
Team news
Tottenham's injury list is a long one. Guglielmo Vicario, Dominic Solanke, Brennan Johnson, Destiny Udogie, Timo Werner, Wilson Odobert are all definitely out for this one.
Richarlison, Pape Matar Sarr, James Maddison, Djed Spence are all questionable, as are Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, though they did take some part in first-team training this week, much to the relief of Spurs fans.
Goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky is ineligible for this game clash meaning Brandon Austin is set to start only his third game for the first team. Yves Bissouma and Micky Moore could come into the starting line up here.
Elfsborg have no injury issues, at all. They currently have a clean bill of health and should name the same side who beat Nice last week.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Austin; Porro, Dragusin, Davies, Gray; Bergvall, Bissouma, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Son, Moore
Elfsborg: Petterson; Buhari, Holmen, Yegbe; Hedlund, B. Zeneli, Ouma, Hult; A. Zeneli, Abdullai, Rapp
Match facts
- Tottenham’s only previous meeting with Swedish opposition was in the 1995 Intertoto Cup, a 2-1 defeat to Östers IF at Brighton’s Goldstone Ground.
- This is Elfsborg’s first ever game against English opposition, and their first meeting with a British opponent since a goalless draw with Celtic in qualifying for the 2013-14 UEFA Champions League.
- Spurs are unbeaten in 16 home games in all European competitions (W13 D3) since losing 1-0 to RB Leipzig in February 2020. However, three of their last five have ended as draws, as many as in their previous 45 combined.
- Elfsborg have lost seven of their last eight away games in major European competitions (W1), conceding 24 goals across these eight games.
- Tottenham’s UEFA Europa League games this season have seen 213 shots (92 for, 121 against), with only Galatasaray’s (217) and Besiktas’ (214) witnessing more. Spurs have both scored and conceded in each of their last four matches in the competition (8 goals for, 8 goals against).
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (29/01/25)
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