Tottenham host Sky Bet League One side Portsmouth in the FA Cup third round. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Both teams to score at 6/4 (William Hill)
1pt Clement Lenglet to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Despite beating Crystal Palace 4-0 in midweek, I'm not ready to jump on the 'Tottenham are back' bandwagon, as defensive issues in particular have plagued Antonio Conte's side over a large sample size - pretty much all season long.
That win was a first clean sheet in their last 11 games across all competitions and ended a run of conceding first in 10 straight matches. They have also shipped multiple goals in eight of those contests.
In fact, over the course of the season, Conte's side have managed just seven shutouts in 25 attempts, not something you expect to see from a side led by the experienced Italian.
Across league and European outings they have conceded an average of 1.26 xGA per game, a regression from last season's 1.07 under Conte.
They are conceding more chances, and thus, more goals. I don't expect that to change against an inferior opponent in the FA Cup.
In fact, there is every chance Conte rings the changes for this game against manager-less Portsmouth, who parted company with Danny Cowley in midweek, which only increases my thinking that Spurs' defensive issues will continue and that their Sky Bet League One visitors can get on the scoresheet.
Pompey have been in poor form, leading to Cowley's sacking, but that may just come at a good time for this game, with a free-hit for interim boss Simon Bassey - or a new man if a swift appointment is made - to have a go and potentially try out new things, which could see a more attack-minded and relaxed approach.
Portsmouth's players will also be looking to impress, so we can expect them to raise their game for a number of reasons heading to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Spurs' quality in forward areas should see them score a couple against a team two divisions below them, meaning the value lies in backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at a huge 6/4.
This bet is firmly based around Spurs' defensive problems, and it's worth noting that Conte's side conceded in this round last season when hosting Portsmouth's fellow League One side Morecambe.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: BBC Red Button or iPlayer
Tottenham 1/10 | Draw 8/1 | Portsmouth 22/1
A longer price I like the look of, should he play, is CLEMENT LENGLET TO SCORE ANYTIME.
This bet is down to two things. Firstly, Portsmouth rank as the seventh-worst team in League One based on expected goals against (xGA) from set-pieces.
And secondly, We know that set-pieces are a strength for Spurs, thanks to the work of set-piece guru Gianno Vio.
They lead the Premier League in expected goal difference (xGD) from dead-ball situations, so it is clearly a case of a Spurs strength meeting a Pompey weakness.
Lenglet has averaged the most xG per 95 minutes of any Spurs defender (0.09) who is likely to be a target from a set-piece across Premier League and Champions League games this term.
He has one goal to his name, which came against Marseille, and whether by choice or force, Lenglet has started Spurs' last seven games across all competitions - even the 2-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest in the Carabao Cup.
If he doesn't start, Davinson Sanchez and/or Eric Dier will likely feature, and while both average fewer xG/95 than Lenglet, both would be good options.
Tottenham v Portsmouth best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both teams to score at 27/20 (Ladbrokes)
- 1pt Clement Lenglet to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Portsmouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (05/01/23)
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