We had expected to know a lot more about Antonio Conte’s Tottenham by the time of their first big game under his management.
But four of their last six matches have been called off, mostly a result of Covid-19 outbreaks, and despite the much-needed rest this has given some of the squad (not to mention a full week on the training ground for Conte), a significant number of cases means Tottenham are depleted for Sunday’s game.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have managed to slalom through the latest wave of the pandemic thus far without any cancellations. However, Fabinho, Virgil van Dijk and Curtis Jones have all tested positively recently and will miss the game.
As Jurgen Klopp has said, it is possible more bad news will emerge over the coming days as the Premier League limps on.
Both will be without key players, then, although Spurs arguably have the slight advantage; those without Covid are more rested, even if Liverpool’s recent momentum – eight wins in a row – could mean greater sharpness than the hosts.
More than usual, this game is about fitness and pyschology as much as it is a tactical battle.
It is a crucial game for both teams, a test of just how realistic Tottenham’s top-four ambitions are and a test of how well Liverpool can cope with major absences.
There will be plenty more of these to come, particularly in January when the AFCON collides with the Omicron wave.
Tactical pattern could favour Spurs
Conte’s use of a deeper block than that used by any other ‘Big Six’ manager suggests his team will happily concede possession and ground, shuffling across in a mid-block that refuses to apply pressure to the Liverpool players until they approach the final third.
Such is the diligent organisation of Conte’s system (which ought to have been improved during this break), the distances between the players will be kept to a minimum while the centre of the field will be intelligently blocked.
That may completely stump Liverpool, who often find it hard to break down stubborn defences that force Klopp’s players to funnel the play slowly down the flanks.
Aston Villa, for example, are using dual number tens under Steven Gerrard, and their ‘Christmas Tree’ formation kept the score down at Anfield.
Similarly, Wolves’ 3-4-3, not dissimilar in shape to Tottenham’s, almost held out for a 0-0 before Divock Origi’s last-minute winner.
However, the success of Conte’s system will depend on how well his wing-backs can cope with the dual threat of advancing full-backs that alternate with the wide forwards.
Sadio Mane and Andrew Robertson will swap roles coming out and in, as will Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah on the other side, and in a 3-4-2-1, Spurs will often only have one wing-back to cover the positional interchanges.
Sergio Reguilon and Japhet Tanganga will need to have perfect games for Spurs to keep the score down.
Fabinho absence might be key
It isn’t yet known if Lucas Moura and Hueng-Min Son will be available for this game following their positive Covid tests, although ten days have passed since they returned it.
Conte will be hopeful of including both given how well they worked together in the 3-0 win over Norwich City, when their interchanges overwhelmed Dean Smith’s side centrally.
Naturally, the inside forward positions are the most important areas in Conte’s system, but that is especially true when playing predominantly on the counter-attack – as they will on Sunday – and when defensive midfield is a vulnerable area for the opposition.
Fabinho’s absence means Liverpool are certainly weaker than usual here, handing Son and Lucas the chance of breaking through the middle.
Should Spurs sit deep and successfully slow Liverpool down, then they can suddenly counter with short passes and bursting runs between these two players. Of course, it is unlikely this will be enough without an upturn in form from Harry Kane, who has never been this poor for this long before.
Sunday would be a very good moment to rediscover some confidence, and perhaps the enforced break at Spurs is just what Kane has needed to catch his breath.
Skipp and Hojbjerg threatened by Liverpool press
The biggest threat to Tottenham’s strategy is Liverpool’s high pressing, which is looking unbelievably sharp over the last few games as Klopp’s side enter a purple patch.
Conte expects his team to pass out calmly from the back, hoping to evade the press with short passing that works around the Liverpool bodies to then find space for counter-like scenarios to develop.
But it remains to be seen if Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Oliver Skipp, as a two in midfield, are really confident enough receiving passes under pressure and with their backs to goal.
Klopp may well target Hojbjerg in particular with a pressing trap, swarming an isolated central midfielder to force an error and put Liverpool’s forwards in on goal.
Getting the balance right here is Conte’s hardest task.
If his team can remain composed under pressure, hold firm in their defensive shape, and get their front three playing in the areas where Fabinho should be, then Tottenham can get the first statement victory of the Conte era.
