The North London derby takes centre stage on Sunday, and Tom Carnduff is looking in the stats markets for a best bet.
Football betting tips: North London derby
1.5pts Bukayo Saka to have 2+ tackles at 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Bukayo Saka to be shown a card at 15/4 (bet365)
If the Manchester derby wasn't enough on Saturday, the TV cameras head to North London as Tottenham take on Arsenal for the second time this season.
The Premier League leading Gunners secured a 3-1 victory at the Emirates in October, and Spurs' recent mixed form sees them head into this one as big outsiders despite having home advantage.
The North London derby is a genuinely intriguing one based on recent history, with alternating winners in the last three meetings between the bitter rivals.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Tottenham 11/5 | Draw 5/2 | Arsenal 23/20
A positive for Tottenham is that the home team has won this contest in each of the last six - and Spurs' 2-0 success back in December 2018 the last time the away side has emerged victorious.
This derby seems to have clinged onto the traditional element of being a feisty affair. We can expect to see a high tackles count - while fouls will be common too.
That's particularly true when we factor in the referee appointment. Craig Pawson is seeing the fourth-highest fouls per game rate in the Premier League this season.
His 23.50 is the highest of any official who has hit double figures in appearances this season - that has led to an average of 4.10 yellows per game.
Pawson should be busy, and the 22/5 best price available on BUKAYO SAKA TO BE SHOWN A CARD is pretty generous when we consider the contrasting numbers in home games compared to those away.
There was some concern after Saka went off during Arsenal's 3-0 win over Oxford in the FA Cup, but Mikel Arteta's comments after the game have cleared things up.
“He’s fine, he’s okay,” Arteta told ITV Sport. That means that Saka should be involved for the large majority of Sunday's contest.
A point of interest is how much Saka's foul count jumps up when the Gunners are on the road this season. He's averaging 0.6 fouls per home game compared to 1.7 away.
He's seen 2+ fouls in just one of his eight home league contests, but six of his nine on the road. That's a 12.5% return compared with 66.6%.
Saka has received four yellows in the Premier League this season. Unsurprisingly, all of those have come in away games - with three of his last four seeing a booking.
A point of interest is that you can replace 'fouls' with 'tackles' and Saka's numbers are the same. One in eight at home; six in nine away.
With defensive output expected, we're also going for SAKA TO HAVE 2+ TACKLES at a best price of 11/8.
With the last fixture between these two being at the Emirates, Saka still returned one successful tackle across the contest.
Instead of gambling on a match result in an unpredictable derby, there's more interest in backing SAKA to contribute with fouls and tackles.
Tottenham v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Bukayo Saka to have 2+ tackles at 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
- 1pt Bukayo Saka to be shown a card at 15/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0910 GMT (13/01/23)
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