Football betting tips: EFL, Bundesliga
Saturday
1pt Moritz Jenz to score anytime in Mainz vs Wolfsburg (14:30) at 25/1 (bet365)
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Union Berlin vs Stuttgart (17:30) at 4/5 (General)
This is it then, the pivotal point of the EFL season.
A campaign of hard work can be undone completely in the space of 72 hours. Months of following through the depths of winter defined by a few days in the moderate sun.
Clubs in the Championship, League One and League Two all play on Friday and then again on Monday - a quick turnaround which can often have drastic consequences on the final standings.
The table on Friday morning can - and probably will - look significantly different on Monday night.
So if you're a follower of a team with nothing to play for, sit back and enjoy it all. For those whose side does have something to play for, well, let's just try and get through the next few days.
I'm tempted to keep this column as a sole focus on the Friday fixtures but it may well venture across Europe in usual fashion. Those tips will be added after initial publication if so.
But for now, here's a few bets which have caught my attention.
Mainz vs Wolfsburg
- Kick-off time: 14:30 BST, Saturday
- Home evens | Draw 5/2 | Away 5/2
I outlined in last week's column that I'm secretly hoping for a Mainz drop off - again though, it's nothing personal.
Bo Henriksen's side have been struggling for form though with a four-game winless run seeing them down to fifth with five games left to play.
A meeting with a Wolfsburg outfit who have little to play for presents an opportunity to get back on track at least.
Rather than gamble on the inconsistent hosts for victory, the 25/1 available on MORITZ JENZ TO SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals as he faces his parent club.
The centre-back has returned at least one shot in each of his last four outings and yet a goal hasn't followed. He's won at least four aerial duels in each of those games too.
Battling in the air is certainly a strength for Jenz too. That should be a key factor at attacking set-pieces with Wolfsburg having issues defending them.
Only Bochum (17) have conceded more goals from corners and free-kicks than Wolfsburg (15) in the German top-flight this season. In terms of the underlying expected goals against (xGA) numbers, Wolfsburg have the highest figure with 13.33.
Union Berlin centre-back Leopold Querfeld had two shots when facing Wolfsburg recently while Augsburg's Chrislain Matsima had one.
While not a prolific scorer, he has been coming close in recent weeks so the value is there in taking Jenz to strike at a big price.
Odds correct at 1505 BST (17/04/25)
Union Berlin vs Stuttgart
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
A mid-table meeting of two sides with very little to play for. Stuttgart have an outside chance of European qualification but need to gain results and hope others go in their favour while Union Berlin have a more than comfortable gap to the drop zone.
While Union's home games are typically lower scoring, I am happy to side with the general 4/5 on OVER 2.5 GOALS here.
Stuttgart may have Nick Woltemade suspended but they are a decent enough unit going forward while struggling to keep teams out.
From their 29 league games played this season, 21 of those have seen at least three scored. In fact, they're averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Union may be at the lower end of this scale but they've seen it land in 45% of their contests with the previous meeting between the sides delivering a 3-2 thriller in Stuttgart's favour.
The figure stands at 50% since Steffen Baumgart's arrival for the second-half of the campaign - they're also enjoying a five-game unbeaten run.
And with relegation no longer a worry, they won't have to be as cautious with some more bravery on display against a bottom-half side.
Odds correct at 1605 BST (17/04/25)
Already advised
1pt Derby to beat Luton (12:30) at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts BTTS in Huddersfield vs Cambridge (15:00) at evens (Betfred)
1.5pts Burnley to beat Watford (15:00) at 17/20 (William Hill)
1pt Lewis O'Brien to score anytime in Swansea vs Hull (15:00) at 8/1 (bet365)
0.5pt O'Brien to score 2+ goals at 100/1 (Betfair, bet365, Paddy Power)
1pt Reading to beat Lincoln (15:00) at 13/10 (William Hill)
1pt Joe Rodon 1+ assists in Oxford vs Leeds (20:00) at 22/1 (bet365)
Derby vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 7/5 | Draw 19/10 | Away 11/5
A massive game at a crucial point of the season.
Luton are facing the very real possibility of back-to-back relegations. A side rubbing shoulders with the Premier League elite less than 12 months ago could be playing League One football in August.
Three points separates themselves and safety. That final spot outside of the drop zone is occupied by Derby, who also possess a significantly better goal difference.
A DERBY WIN could effectively seal Luton's fate. That's the outcome I'm backing at a price of 13/8.
Confidence should be with the Rams. Since John Eustace's appointment in February, they sit 11th in that 10-game table - 14 points gained which has throw them back into life.
Luton are showing some signs of life too yet defeat to Blackburn last time out has knocked them back. They will be aware of Derby's recent good home form.
Eustace's side are unbeaten in their last four in front of their own supporters with three of those wins. The draw came against a Burnley outfit battling for the title.
With play-off hopefuls Coventry turned over in that period, I'll side with the hosts securing another positive outcome.
Huddersfield vs Cambridge
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 8/15 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/4
Huddersfield's season is ending with a whimper. A side with play-off aspirations dropping down to ninth in the Sky Bet League One table with just four games to go.
It's completely of their own doing too. Michael Duff departed at the beginning of March and their plan to get them back on track was to give the job to Jon Worthington on an interim basis.
That's the actions of a club with nothing to play for, not one aiming to secure promotion.
Four defeats in their last five has caused the slide down the table although this is a team with eight defeats in their last 11 - forget your hopes of Championship football in August.
They welcome Cambridge on Friday, a team who are likely to be changing divisions, just not in the way anyone hopes for.
They're 23rd and seven points adrift of safety. They really do have nothing to lose at this point and I'll side with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in the contest at evens.
Since Neil Harris' return, Cambridge have found the net in seven of their 11 with this being a winning bet in four of their previous seven.
The Terriers have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the previous 11 games mentioned, with BTTS landing in the games which they won.
In a meeting of two sides who have found wins a rarity, the value comes in the net being struck at both ends.
Watford vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 15/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 3/4
The Easter weekend could bring an end to the automatic promotion race in the Sky Bet Championship.
Burnley are up first on Friday and have a great opportunity to apply the pressure on their rivals - mainly Sheffield United who are falling apart.
Only goal difference keeps Leeds top of the Sky Bet Championship table and another win for the Clarets moves them three points clear with the Whites in action against Oxford in a later kick-off.
There is certainly appeal in the 17/20 on a BURNLEY WIN here.
Scott 'Scotty' Parker's side are the division's best travellers. They've lost just twice in 21 outings on the road but they both came in the earlier parts of the campaign.
They've dispatched the teams sat in mid-table when meeting them away and, well, also at home for that matter.
Watford are lacking consistency and face an end to the season with nothing to play for - safe from the drop but not making the play-offs.
Leeds hammered them 4-0 while Sheffield United also beat them 2-1 in January. It's five games played against the current top three and all five have ended in defeat.
I'll side with them making that six from six on Friday.
Reading vs Lincoln
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 6/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 2/1
I can't believe Noel Hunt didn't get a nomination for League One's Manager of the Season.
Yes, he may well have taken over Reading in December with the club floating around the play-off positions but context is key. They've achieved this wonderful season despite huge uncertainty about the club's future.
They're three points clear of seventh with four games to go. It would be such a shame if they weren't to achieve a spot in the top six.
I'll side with a READING WIN on Friday which would move them closer to post-season involvement.
The Royals have lost just one of their last 15 league games and that run has included games against Birmingham, Wrexham and Wycombe.
They beat the latter two mentioned there when facing them in front of their own supporters. They are a strong home unit.
And in Lincoln, they take on a team with nothing to play for. They've managed just one win in their last five with six away games to those currently in the top eight seeing five end in defeat.
The prices available make this an appealing bet.
Swansea vs Hull
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 2/1
You may look at this fixture and fancy an away win simply because Hull need something but Swansea have been very impressive under Alan Sheehan's interim guidance.
They've lost just two of nine with him at the helm - a run which includes a draw away at Leeds and a win at Sunderland last time out.
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I actually like their price for success in this one and I wouldn't have too many issues including them in my Friday accumulator.
That price was going to be included in the staking plan until I saw 8/1 available for LEWIS O'BRIEN TO SCORE ANYTIME which is well worth backing given a recent positional change.
Traditionally a central/deeper midfielder, three of their last four games have seen him operating in a more advanced position. That could continue here.
He registered two shots against Leeds, with three coming in each of their last two games. O'Brien also scored in their last home game, that being a comfortable win over Plymouth.
The midfielder has occasionally demonstrated a goalscoring ability with Huddersfield in the past, having a couple of seasons which delivered three goals in each.
But we have to factor in the new position here and playing further forward than we're used to seeing. The price reflects that of a more defensive-minded midfielder.
And because of those prices, I'll also take the 100s on O'BRIEN 2+ GOALS.
He's had at least two shots in three of his last four since the change.
Oxford vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 15/2 | Draw 19/5 | Away 1/3
A week's a long time in football, as the cliché goes.
After Leeds' draw with Luton, they looked like they were done in the automatic promotion race. They were lacking ideas, lacking energy and ultimately seemingly lacking the fight required.
But the past nine days have changed opinions. They dug in to secure a 1-0 away win at Middlesbrough followed by a 2-1 victory over Preston on Saturday.
Last time out, Daniel Farke's side created chances which equated to their third-highest expected goals (xG) tally of the season. They could, and probably should, have scored five.
📊 Leeds created chances worth 3.53 expected goals (xG) in yesterday’s 2-1 victory over Preston.
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) April 13, 2025
🥉 That’s their third-highest return of the season (after 5.74 in 7-0 win over Cardiff and 3.64 in 2-0 win at Coventry). pic.twitter.com/ChaytAi9kR
Friday seems them travelling to an Oxford side who can be awkward for the top teams. The victory over Sheffield United started a three-game losing run for the Blades which could prove to be significantly costly.
As you'd expect, Leeds are a short price for success but I am fascinated by the 22/1 available for JOE RODON 1+ ASSISTS.
The centre-back is comfortable on the ball anyway but it feels like he's been dribbling out of defence more in recent weeks and exploiting any gaps which appear when they are looking to start an attack.
Rodon's had possession in some advanced positions and it's a bet that could win from a simple pass to a winger who then cuts inside to score.
There's also the set-piece potential with Ciaron Brown now missing for the hosts. Any headers flicked-on would also see it being a winner.
It's based on how he's appeared in the past few weeks and if Leeds are behind at any point, you can see him driving forward to join the attack.
Odds correct at 1700 BST (16/04/25) unless otherwise stated
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