Fresh from his 5/4 winner last week, Sporting Life's women's football expert Joe Rindl has the preview and best bet for Team GB's quarter-final with Australia at Tokyo 2020.
1pt Great Britain to win and under 2.5 goals at 16/5 (BoyleSports)
In my outright preview, I explained my wariness that Team GB could end up on the tougher side of the draw with a potential semi-final match-up with world champions USA.
As predicted, GB topped their group. The USA however were stunned in their opener against Sweden, finishing second to end up on an opposite path to Hege Riise’s side.
It means GB will face either the Swedes - a team ranked four places lower than the US, or hosts Japan - a side they beat 1-0 less than a week ago, in the final four.
That is, of course, all dependent on whether they can pass familiar foes Australia in the quarter-finals on Friday morning. It’ll be tough task, but I reckon it’s one they’ll rise to.
In the group stages, Australia clinched the final best third-place finish spot to reach the quarter-finals.
But their four points from three games shouldn’t be underestimated. From a group of death with four-time Olympic champions USA, 2019 World Cup semi-finalists Sweden and in-form New Zealand, qualification is something to be applauded.
The Matildas got off to the perfect start with a 2-1 win over New Zealand - a scoreline that flattered their opponents who scored a 91st-minute consolation goal.
Next up, two goals from Chelsea’s Sam Kerr saw Australia briefly take the lead against group winners Sweden, eventually losing 4-2 before they concluded their first round with a regimented 0-0 draw against the USA.
Those in green and gold have never advanced beyond the last eight stage at either an Olympics or World Cup. They’ll fancy their chances to break their duck against Great Britain.
Form, however, is very much against them.
Australia have lost five of their eight matches in 2021, a year that started with 5-2 and 5-0 hammerings against Germany and the Netherlands respectively. Tony Gustavsson's side's 2-1 win over New Zealand is their only victory since March 2020.
Team GB have been very impressive so far in their first tournament since London 2012. They were utterly dominant against Chile in their opener, winning 2-0 with over 20 shots peppered at the South Americans’ goal.
Against Japan they were professional, edging the possession and territory in a 1-0 win. In their final group game, Riise rested three-goal Ellen White and made five changes as a late leveller saw them rescue a 1-1 draw with Canada.
They topped Group E with seven points; four goals scored and just one conceded.
Against Australia, GB should be strong favourites.
The value play is to back GB TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 16/5 with Boyle Sports. That punt has come through twice already for the home nations in this tournament, while Australia have failed to score in three of their past five games since mid-June.
Expect GB to progress with a tense, narrow win.
Score prediction: Great Britain 1-0 Australia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (29/07/21)
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