Analysing Serge Gnabry's impact at Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich

Pulis has been predictably condemned for letting what appears to be a superb talent slip through his fingers, but, in fairness, Wenger also had his doubts, saying on BeIn Sports last year that he felt Gnabry ‘lacked a bit’, a clear reference to his application.

It’s perhaps one of those situations where Gnabry needed rejection in order to become the player he is now. Judging potential at that level, with such a small sample size of professional minutes, is much easier with hindsight and there are scores more that Wenger (and Pulis) will have been correct about. But boy, did they get this one wrong.

After leaving England in 2016, Gnabry hinted at his quality at Werder Bremen and Hoffenheim in back-to-back seasons, and though he put up more than decent numbers in that time - 27 goals and assists in two seasons from attacking midfield - it was still a surprise when Bayern spent €8million on him. It seems like a trivial fee and more than one party - not least Wenger - felt Bayern ensured the 24-year-old left Arsenal so that they could pick him up cheaper.

Whatever happened, Gnabry still had to claim his opportunity in a side where attacking talent was plentiful in his position; Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben were still there and claiming minutes, alongside Thomas Muller, Kingsley Coman and James Rodriguez. But no-one featured in more matches than Gnabry in all competitions in 2018/19, providing 19 goal contributions at the equivalent of one every 134 minutes.

This season, however, Gnabry has taken things to a whole new level. It’s difficult to look past his battering of Tottenham when his four goals and an assist formed part of one of the displays of the season by any team in any competition, but his performance against Chelsea, again in London, again scoring with unerring accuracy, was equally effective. The traits he showed in both of those matches represents the tone for the season; moving on and off the ball at blistering pace, finding space on the edge of the area, and finding the corner of the net.

From a league perspective his non-penalty goals P90 of 0.61 is on a par with the likes of Neymar, Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and is fifth-best in Germany, only beaten by outright centre-forwards (and Jadon Sancho). But his non-penalty goal contributions P90 - a combination of non-pen goals and assists, averaged over 90 minutes for ease of comparison - is 1.11, which is the eighth-best in Europe’s top five leagues.

The names just ahead of him are Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Sancho (again). From the Hawthorns bench to be among that company in four years is pretty extraordinary.

And yet it’s also a level he should be able to maintain. His 22.30 xG (expected goals) + xA (expected assists) from 20 goal contributions means he is actually slightly underperforming the total we would expect and his xA P90 of 0.59 is the fifth-highest total in Europe. His 1.1 Big Chances Created P90 - an opportunity provided to a team-mate from which they would reasonably be expected to score - is bettered only by team-mate Muller. For perspective, Messi’s total is only 0.9.

There are some comparisons to be had with Sancho in his output. Both operate from wide and create, and both are totally direct players, though Gnabry’s shots are far more frequent, his 4.2 P90 easily among the top 20 in Europe (and high for a non centre-forward). And like Sancho, Gnabry has established an excellent relationship with team-mates, not least the passing genius that is Thiago Alcantara, who regularly flips his trademark ball over the top into wide areas for Gnabry to run onto.

Bayern have found this approach lucrative across the campaign, with Muller, Robert Lewandowski and Gnabry destroying teams since the January break. They have scored 32 goals in 11 matches in all competitions and there was no team better placed to win the treble than the Bavarians prior to the COVID-19 disruption.

And it’s an interesting trait of this Bayern side just how often their wide forwards penetrate the area. Five of the top eight players for touches in box P90 in the Bundesliga are from Bayern, and Gnabry has the most with 9.9, even more than perennial penalty-box finisher Lewandowski (9.5). Ivan Perisic (9.2), Coman (7.9) and Muller (7.0) aren’t too far behind. Extrapolate that to Europe’s top five leagues and only Mbappe, Raheem Sterling and Mo Salah touch the ball more inside the area.

Bayern are a ruthlessly brilliant attacking team, and Gnabry has been an essential part of that. He has also solidified his position in the German national side, managing five goals and an assist in Euro qualifying. It’s important to remember that Wenger never questioned his talent when at Arsenal, just what he was capable of doing with it. It could well have been that message that prepared Gnabry for the hard work required to produce these world-class performances.

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