Race for Champions League: Analyzing final-day fixtures for Chelsea, Liverpool & Leicester
Three teams into two Champions League places doesn't go. Alex Keble provides tactical analysis ahead of the final-day Premier League games for Chelsea, Liverpool and Leicester.
Chelsea, Liverpool, and Leicester City are battling it out for two Champions League spots on the final day of the 2020/21 Premier League season and there is every reason to assume teams will lurch up and down the live table on Sunday evening.
None of the three can take their game for granted.
Just a few weeks ago, Leicester seemed certain to hold onto their place in the top four while Jurgen Klopp was lamenting his team’s performances and telling reporters Liverpool did not ‘deserve’ to be up there.
But after a run of four consecutive wins, coupled with a sharp downturn in form at Leicester, Klopp's Liverpool – along with Chelsea – have destiny in their own hands.
Leicester have good reason to hope. Chelsea travel to Villa Park where fans will be present for the first time, ready to support Aston Villa at the end of a promising season, and Dean Smith’s side are full of confidence after a 2-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday. There is a chance they can take points from Chelsea, especially with Jack Grealish back in the fold.
Crystal Palace might fold at Liverpool, although Roy Hodgson’s final game in charge – and former player Christian Benteke being on a hot streak – throws a spanner into the works. Leicester, against the odds, might find themselves with the easiest game of all considering how poor Tottenham have looked against even mildly coherent opposition.
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Villa look to play a patient possession game with Smith plumping for an expansive setup with plenty of recycling the ball. That is not the best way to play Chelsea, whose high-pressing football will surely capitalise on any sloppy passes from Villa; the visitors are excellent in the transition and this is when Villa are most uncomfortable.
Look out for Timo Werner being slipped in behind repeatedly, and a mismatch of possession-versus-pressing characterised in the role of Marvelous Nakamba. He is particularly prone to getting caught on the ball, and should Chelsea’s inside forwards target the Villa midfielder they should be able to break through to victory.
Then again, Grealish is likely to return to the left wing so that Smith can sure up midfield with a third body, and if that is the case then the Villa captain could take advantage of Chelsea’s weakest area.
Thomas Tuchel has taken to playing Cesar Azpilicueta at right wing-back and Reece James at right centre-back, and it remains to be seen if this unusual combination can cope with a partnership as tricky as Grealish and Matt Targett.
But on balance Chelsea should get the three points.
Kourtney Hause is liable to getting caught out at the back, while John McGinn is unlikely to be able to control midfield against Chelsea’s box-shape quartet. What’s more, even if Villa dominate for spells one would expect N’Golo Kante, playing to the right of centre, to snap at Grealish’s heels.
Leicester City v Tottenham
Brendan Rodgers switched from a 3-4-1-2 to a 3-4-2-1 for the midweek defeat to Chelsea in an attempt to crowbar James Maddison back into the team, but that badly disrupted their ability to press high.
They were dominant for the final half hour after the Leicester manager moved back to the 3-4-1-2 – and that should worry Tottenham fans. It seems likely that this cohesive, well-coached, and battling Leicester team will outwit an under-coached Spurs in every area of the pitch.
If Villa can do that, then Leicester should be well on top. Ryan Mason has struggled to find a central midfield that works, and his refusal to play Tanguy Ndombele has left Tottenham flat and lifeless in this zone of the pitch, unable to progress the ball towards Dele Alli with speed or confidence.
Leicester’s Youri Tielemans and Wilfried Ndidi ought to capitalise on this, poaching the ball and setting Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheanacho in behind.
The main danger for Leicester is their slight disorganisation among the back three while Jonny Evans is out. Timothy Castagne is the latest to fill in at right centre-back but he was not effective against Chelsea, which hands Son Heung-min and Harry Kane the chance to combine down the left – as they love to do – and pile pressure onto Leicester’s weak spot.
With Spurs wide open and playing vague Pochettino-esque attacking football, and with Leicester a little emotional in front of their fans, this is likely to be a high-scoring game that ultimately goes in the hosts’ favour.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
All the momentum is with Liverpool and Roy Hodgson’s deep-lying, narrow 4-4-2 just isn’t the right tactical approach to beat a Jurgen Klopp team in full flow.
First of all, Eberechi Eze’s injury has dramatically hindered Palace’s ability to break quickly in the dribble, which should mean they are pushed back for long periods, but more important than that is the renewed influence of Thiago and Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Thiago was the best player on the pitch in each of Liverpool’s past two games, dominating statistically in passes, chances created, tackles, and touches of the ball.
He has added bite and anticipation to his game as he begins to understand the rhythms of English football, while those brilliantly disguised line-splitting passes are helping Liverpool to pin their opponents in their own third. Alongside Fabinho, Thiago keeps Liverpool surging on.
That will be magnified in front of a home crowd and, assuming the hosts dominate territory, Alexander-Arnold can be the hero.
Crystal Palace are regularly guilty of being too narrow in their defensive shell, and on Sunday they will leave the flanks completely open as their full-backs track Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah. It will only take simple diagonals for Alexander-Arnold to get on the ball in space and win Liverpool the game.
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