Manchester City v Liverpool: Tactical analysis with free betting tips for Premier League encounter
Somehow, the latest edition of the Klopp-versus-Guardiola rivalry has both more and less riding on it than ever before. Liverpool and Manchester City are wounded, ready for a historic loss, and yet the enduring chaos of this unique campaign means defeat on Sunday would barely put a dent in their title challenges.
That’s the sort of cognitive dissonance we have come to expect in the year of Covid-19: a semi-permanent state of unwieldiness and lurching narrative uncertainty. The 2020/21 Premier League campaign was never going to escape the effects of the new normal.
Liverpool are clearly under-performing, but they’re top of the league. Man City are at their lowest ebb since Guardiola’s arrival, but win this weekend and they’ll be a game-in-hand away from usurping Klopp’s side at the summit. When two wounded giants meet, it should mean everything to get the win, but assuming the congested fixture list means only around 85 points to win the Premier League, that is no longer the case. The pressure is both on and off.
For the neutral, at least, this is good news, the contradictions pointing to another exhausting game between Liverpool and Man City played at a swirling, spring-loaded tempo.
Ignore the form guide. Disregard that Liverpool are struggling for fluency and that Man City cannot score. Neither has been offered the chance to play against expansive opponents until now, instead tasked with breaking down stubborn defences drilled by understandably cautious managers. Against each other, all the old defensive flaws - and all the old attacking patterns - should re-emerge.
That’s because Guardiola has embraced rapid counter-attacks as a way to beat Klopp in recent meetings. In the 4-0 win back in July it was striking how often Man City played quick vertical passes into Kevin de Bruyne (deployed higher than usual in central attacking midfield), who then turned and ran at the heart of the Liverpool defence. It worked brilliantly, cutting the visitors open as Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden attacked spaces behind Liverpool’s high full-backs.
Guardiola generally doesn’t like to do this, instead recycling the ball after a transition; resetting into his perfectly choreographed shape for attacks in an orderly fashion. Not so for Liverpool games, and that should mean the contest is pulled from end to end on Sunday as counters are hit back with counter-counters, not unlike the second half of Man City’s game against Leeds United. Marcelo Bielsa forced the chaos at Elland Road. This time, Guardiola will be the instigator.
Whereas City will pass vertically through the pitch via De Bruyne, Liverpool will most likely look for raking long diagonal passes, either out to the full-backs or straight over the top of City’s high line, forcing them back. This is the primary strategy deployed by Klopp in recent meetings – and it has often brought them joy.
Look out for Jordan Henderson and Thiago working tirelessly to make space out wide, joining Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold to provide wall passes on the flanks and form a trio with Sadio Mane or Mohamed Salah. Liverpool will no doubt target the wings, focusing on isolating or overwhelming Joao Cancelo on the left – as well as getting their forwards to slip through on the outside of a centre-back partnership that is yet to be truly tested in the Premier League.
In the individual battles that develop once Liverpool’s direct approach progresses the ball into the final third, the attacking team will hold plenty of advantages. Mane versus Ruben Dias is a major challenge for such an inexperienced defender, while Cancelo is likely to be out-thought by Salah and Alexander-Arnold as they alternate between sitting wide and occupying the right half-space.
There is also a decent chance Robertson and Alexander-Arnold will find space to cross from deep, given that Sterling and Riyad Mahrez aren’t always the best at tracking their man.
It is more difficult to predict which attacking areas favour Man City. The loss of Virgil van Dijk is yet to be felt by Liverpool and clearly this hands an edge to Ferran Torres, once again likely to deputise as a striker after his goalscoring performance in the Champions League in midweek. His battle with Joe Gomez and Joel Matip is a crucial one.
Mahrez is the most potent threat, however. In Liverpool’s 2-2 draw with Everton space opened up for Carlo Ancelotti’s side when the left centre-back – first Van Dijk, then Gomez – was pulled wide to cover for the marauding Robertson, in turn creating a gap for Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be slid through. City will no doubt target this area via the movement of Mahrez, with De Bruyne the looming threat from the right wing (where he tends to hang) pulling Liverpool’s defenders too far out.
Alternatively, perhaps Sterling and Mahrez will get isolated on the flanks, as they have so often been this season when Guardiola has gone for a safe double pivot of Rodri and Iklay Gundogan (which he surely will on Sunday). Maybe he’ll even spring a huge surprise, as he did in the 1-0 victory over Arsenal when a wonderfully indecipherable 4-2-3-1 saw a half a dozen City players ferreting about in new roles.
Oh, and maybe Klopp will start – or at least bring off the bench – some of the new generation of players who impressed in the midweek destruction of Atalanta, such as Curtis Jones or hat-trick hero Diogo Jota, further confusing the tactical pattern.
That’s the problem. It has always been difficult to predict what these two extraordinarily intelligent tacticians will do, or what the latest tweaks will look like as they adapt and react to each fresh encounter.
But these unknowns have only intensified in 2020/21 - a season defying all expectations, littering the Premier League with implausible and incongruous matches. The best thing to do is just sit back and enjoy it.
Odds correct at 1015 GMT (05/11/20)
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