Analysis: Are 50/1 second place Leicester a true bet for Premier League crown?

The result at an almost flooded Elland Road, thanks to goals from Harvey Barnes, Jamie Vardy and two from Youri Tielemans, saw the club record their joint-best top-flight start to a season and ensure an impressive feat of winning all five opening away matches.

The Foxes have won five of their opening seven matches, are the joint-second highest scorers in the league - level with leaders Liverpool with 17 - have the third-best defensive record. Alongside all that, they have already beaten Manchester City 5-2 this term.

Despite all that, the East Midlands club remain 50/1 to win their second Premier League title. The market has moved somewhat on Tuesday morning with 40 and 33 popping up more regularly across the board, but 50s remains available with Betfair and Paddy Power.

Granted it's not the 5000/1 dream bet of their previous title winning campaign, but it still feels very generous considering both their own start and the inconsistencies of the traditional big-six.

One small stick to beat Leicester fans with has been that the likes of Manchester United and City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal were in transition - or to be more realistic a mess - when they lifted the title in 2016.

The Foxes won it with 81 points, every subsequent winner has earned over 90 points, with second place in each of those seasons finishing on 81 points or higher.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side can do no wrong in Europe, but are down in 16th in the domestic league, Liverpool have already lost and are leaking goals, City aren't scoring as they used to and Chelsea keep stumbling against the mid to lower league opponents. Does this open the door for the King Power side?

The stats show that the Foxes are putting in the performances to match the results. Their xGF rate of 12.4 is the third-best in the Premier League; that puts them higher than Chelsea (11.1), City (9.2), Arsenal (8.4), Wolves (8.0) and Manchester United (7.7). Their position is no fluke.

Lasting the pace

Bookies and critical punters will rightly point back to last season, as Brendan Rodgers side started like a runaway train, only for the fuel to run out at the back end, not just quickly losing their title chances but eventually failing to even finish in the top-four.

They might even look at Monday's game with a critical eye. Leeds' Patrick Bamford should have scored twice in the first-half, his first chance falling in the first minute. Moments later the visitors were gifted their opening goal as Vardy intercepted Robin Koch's lacklustre back-pass to set up Barnes.

Had Bamford scored it could have been a very different game, but instead Barnes' early strike allowed Leicester to do what they do best, sit back and wait to explode on the counter.

But that's the point and why 50/1 is so very tempting. Leicester force mistakes in their opponents and this season they appear to be more intelligent in the way they do it.

With Vardy in their side the Foxes have always preferred the counter attack, famously winning the title with under 50 per cent possession, and Rodgers continued that theme last term. But this season the Northern Irishman seems to have educated his men better and delivered more intelligence. When they lose the ball they reorganise quicker and sit slightly higher up the pitch. They wait more patiently for the press and when they go, they go quickly and as a unit.

It forced a normally unflappable and confident Leeds into mistake after mistake in the first period and Leicester gladly took advantage. Even in the second half when the hosts dominated and Leicester couldn't get a kick, Leeds managed just two strikes on goal, while Leicester scored twice more.

What could also be missed here is that Rodgers was without first choice centre-backs Caglar Soyuncu and Jonny Evans, plus fellow defenders Ricardo Pereira and Timothy Castagne. Midfielder Wilfred Ndidi also remains sidelined, while James Maddison continued his return from injury with a second half appearance from the bench.

Again, this could be a reason for punters to stay away from the Foxes, but look deeper and it could be a sign of the strength in depth Rodgers is building. Liverpool have kept just one league clean sheet this season, while four goals in three domestic games have gone in since Virgil Van Dijk was forced off against Everton.

Meanwhile Leicester youngsters Wesley Fofana, James Justin and Luke Thomas looked comfortable and confident at the back on Monday night, keeping what Sky Sports billed as 'entertaining Leeds' at bay. Since Soyuncu's injury they've leaked three league goals and one of those was a cross.

Even with the significant absentees at the back, the replacements have more than done what was required. Leicester lead the way for average interceptions per game (13) in the Premier League this season while they look to limit opportunities given away through fouls - only Arsenal and Liverpool concede fewer per game.

At the other end, loanee Cengiz Under has added a new attacking threat which has made his new side less predictable in the final third. He's already set up Vardy for goals in this last two Premier League outings.

No Vardy, no chance?

But this is where we really get to it - Jamie Vardy. This is why the price remains long. Does anyone have confidence in Leicester without last season's golden boot winner?

His failure to score in his side's final three games of last season aligned with their slip from fourth to fifth on the final day. He missed the 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa due to a hamstring injury and, as impressive defensively and tactically Leicester were at Arsenal, they only looked an attacking threat once Vardy was introduced from the bench - scoring the winner.

He produced a masterclass in the West Yorkshire on Monday, as the Leeds defenders failed to live with his pace, intelligence, movement, intensity and bite, he set up two and scored another.

Already on eight goals this campaign, Vardy looks in the best shape of his life, and, should he stay fit, he could fire himself to another top scorer prize and in-turn Leicester to another title. But should form dip or injury hit you wonder how Leicester will cope.

Unlike their previous title success, Leicester also have Europe to deal with now, playing seemingly every Thursday in the Europa League. How will Vardy's hamstrings hold up to not just the game but also travelling time?

Maddison has one league goal in one start this term, Barnes two and Tielemans three, although two are penalties. Ayoze Perez grabbed eight league goals last season, Kelechi Iheanacho celebrated five and already has one in Europe this term. So goals are available in blue shirts elsewhere.

In a season which is clearly going to prove the most unpredictable ever, with no fans, the intense fixture schedule and injuries mounting up for all clubs it feels a campaign where anything could happen and that is certainly in Leicester's wheelhouse.

One final note, Leicester's previous best start to the season was under Peter Taylor in 2000/01 when they topped the Premier League for the first time in their history. They eventually finished 13th and were relegated the following season - that's maybe a bet for another time.

Odds correct at 0930 GMT (03/11/20)

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