Super Sunday tips: Leicester v West Ham best bets and preview
West Ham aim to continue their push for a Champions League spot away at a Leicester side woefully out of form. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, picking out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts West Ham to score Over 1.5 Goals at 21/20 (Unibet)
1pt Craig Dawson to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Craig Dawson to score and be carded 37/1 (Betfair)
Leicester's miserable run of form was extended on Thursday night as they lost 2-0 to Liverpool at Anfield, though the scoreline flattered the Foxes (xG: LIV 3.30 - 0.46 LEI).
That was another woeful defensive display from a team that currently ranks as the worst defensive team in the entire Premier League based on expected goals against (xGA), allowing a whopping 2.10 per game.
For more emphasis as to just how bad that is, since Infogol started collecting Premier League xG data in 2014, no team has possessed a worst defensive process than the Foxes. None. Not even relegated teams.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Leicester 15/8 | Draw 13/5 | West Ham 13/10
That is simply staggering, and unless something drastically changes, Leicester won't be ascending the table any time soon.
It is a remarkable increase from a team who so nearly finished in the top four in both of the last two seasons, with their xGA per game last season of 1.36 jumping up by nearly 0.80 per game.
They host a West Ham team on Sunday who have the attacking firepower to add to Leicester's woes.
While the Hammers struggled to create against Watford in midweek (1.11 xGF), they faced a Hornets side who were set-up deliberately to frustrate them in an attempt to get at least a point.
This weekend, they face a Leicester team who play in such an attacking manner that they leave massive gaps to be exploited - exactly the type of team West Ham like to play against.
David Moyes's side have averaged 1.65 xGF per game this season, which ranks them as a better attacking outfit than their hosts (1.43), and will thrive in a wide open encounter.
Leicester have conceded two or more goals in eight of their last 12 Premier League games, so given West Ham's firepower and the fact that they have scored multiple goals in 12 of 24 league games, backing WEST HAM TO SCORE OVER 1.5 GOALS appeals.
Given the individual quality Leicester possess, and the likely open nature of this game, taking the visitors to score two or more seems more sensible than backing them just to win the game.
That is the main selection, but looking at Leicester's statistics at defending set-pieces, a defender goalscorer bet caught my eye.
First, the stats. Leicester have allowed 44.1 xGA this season, and 26% of that has come from set-pieces (corners, free-kicks).
The Foxes have conceded the most xGA from such situations in the league this season. They have also let in the joint most goals from set-piece (12) and faced the most shots (102), so it is an obvious weakness for Brendan Rodgers's side.
My colleague Tom Carnduff went down the same route in midweek by backing Virgil van Dijk to score anytime, and he had a header parried by Kasper Schmeichel that was turned in by Diogo Jota - very close to a nice winner.
In fact, Leicester have conceded seven goals to opposition centre-backs in their last 13 league games, which is an incredible number, meaning I have to chance a West Ham defender.
The Hammers, in terms of set-piece stats, rank fifth in the league for goals scored from dead-ball situations (8) and fourth for xGF, with 22% of their xGF total coming from set-pieces.
Of West Ham defenders in question then, CRAIG DAWSON is the man that stands out.
Dawson has averaged 0.87 shots per 95 minutes this term, while averaging 0.11 xG/95, so he will more than likely get on the end of one or two chances against the league's worst set-piece defence, so backing him to SCORE ANYTIME is our second selection.
He is yet to score this season, but his xG tally of 2.03 shows he has been very close, and should already have at least one to his name.
A final longshot then, CRAIG DAWSON TO SCORE AND BE CARDED is proposed as a small stake play.
The case has been made for backing Dawson to score in the match, and while he only has one yellow card to his name, he has committed a decent number of fouls that suggest he could have a few more cautions.
Michael Oliver is our referee for this game, and he is one of the more card-happy refs in the league, and couple that with the fact that five opposition defenders have been booked against Leicester in their last six matches, and doubling a Dawson goal up with a Dawson card looks an interesting longshot.
Leicester v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts West Ham to score Over 1.5 Goals at 21/20 (Unibet)
- 1pt Craig Dawson to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Craig Dawson to score and be carded 37/1 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Leicester 2-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Odds correct at 1750 GMT (11/02/21)
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