The way to approach this build a bet for Super Sunday’s feature clash at the City Ground has to be the fouls market.
Super Sunday match preview & tips
Only Brentford have committed more fouls than Nottingham Forest this season (14.2), plus Oliver Glasner’s side are averaging one foul more per game at home than any other Premier League team (16.3).
Coincidently, Arsenal are the most fouled side in the division (15.8).
Michael Oliver is the referee. He’s taken charge of five top-flight games this season and has the third-lowest cards per game average (2.80) but the sixth-highest fouls per game average (23).
- 1pt at 12/1 (bet365) - Super Sub available
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
Mikel Arteta’s side are lopsided with 44% of their attacks coming down the right side compared to 30% down the left.
BUKAYO SAKA plays on the right-wing and has drawn the fourth most fouls in the division per game (3.0), drawing at least three in four of his last five appearances and his price to WIN 3+ FOULS is big enough.
Naturally, his direct opponent is worth a look to commit a few.
Forest are expected to line up in a back five and in two appearances against back fives this season, Saka's opposing left-centre-backs have committed more fouls then opposition left-wing backs.
MURILLO is expected to start there for Nottingham Forest. He’s committed the most fouls per game for Forest (1.7), making nine across his last four appearances. His price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS appeals.
It’s also worth noting JAMES MCATEE has been playing in a deeper role in midfield.
He has picked up two cards in six appearances this season, committing four fouls against Tottenham and three against Aston Villa.
On Sunday, McAtee will be trying to contain Myles Lewis-Skelly or Bruno Guimaraes.
The former has drawn at least one foul in all five of his league appearances this season, drawing multiple on three occasions. Guimaraes won 2.75 per 90 last season and has picked up where he left off since making the switch to Arsenal.
So regardless who starts alongside Declan Rice in midfield, backing McAtee TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS takes the BAB to 12/1.
- With Myles Lewis-Skelly: 0.25pt at 375/1 (bet365) - Super Sub available
- With Bruno Guimaraes: 0.25pt at 275/1 (bet365) - Super Sub available
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
For a real shot at glory, you can beef up the bet builder above with a couple of extra selections to the tune of a three digit punt.
SAKA TO DRAW 4+ FOULS, MURILLO TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS and MCATEE TO COMMIT 3+ FOULS are all touted.
Saka has hit this line in a third of his league appearances, Murillo in two of his last four as has McAtee.
Slotting in NOTTINGHAM FOREST TO GET THE MOST CARDS appeals. Only three teams have picked up more cards than Sunday’s hosts (15), that is twice as many as Arsenal (8).
Finally, adding LEWIS-SKELLY TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS or BRUNO GUIMARAES TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS takes the bet builder to 375/1 with the former or 275/1 with the latter.
The thinking is McAtee gives as good as he gets, drawing 1.5 fouls per game in the top flight this season.
The issue is, Lewis-Skelly played at left back in midweek against Lille and Guimaraes started in midfield but Arsenal head to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday.
My instinct is Lewis-Skelly starts here but at the prices and without the luxury of team news, I'd rather just tip both players in both bet builders with a quarter point.
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (16/10/26)
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