Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
1pt Draw/Arsenal - half-time/full-time at 15/4 (General)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest have been far better than results suggest this season, heading into the weekend in 15th place in the Premier League table but as the biggest outlier in the division according to underlying data.
The performance-based xG table has them sitting third with 11 expected points, six more than they actually have. Anyone who has been following them closely will know that makes perfect sense.
Last weekend Oliver Glasner's men should have been out of sight at Crystal Palace but were ultimately punished for their wastefulness, just as they were at Anfield in August with it galling that they somehow emerged from those games with just a point in total.
In their last home match it was a slightly different story as Coventry battled to a 1-0 win, meaning Forest are yet to find the net at home this term, losing twice to Leeds (1-0 and 2-0) and drawing 0-0 with Tottenham.
That statistic alone makes it hard to back them, even at 5/1. They do however look much better suited to playing as the away team, which is more like how this match should shape up against Arsenal, with the onus on the champions to make the play.
Since Forest returned to the top flight Arsenal have found them tricky, especially at the City Ground.
There have been five meetings in all competitions with the Gunners winning just once. Four have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS, which is backed at 10/11, and the last two have ended goalless, which makes NO GOALSCORER a real runner at 11/1.
Arsenal have been far from free-flowing in attack this season.
In trips to Aston Villa, Napoli, Sunderland and Brighton they have scored just four goals.
Even at home in their most recent outings against Lille and Leeds their opponents made life incredibly difficult, with it taking until past the hour mark for Mikel Arteta's side to score their first goal.
In six of their last seven matches in the Premier League and Champions League the Gunners have been drawing at half-time and gone on to win.
The only exception was their 3-0 defeat at Brighton.
The 15/4 about DRAW/ARSENAL in the HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME is therefore a cracking price and provides a small deviation from the more obvious Arsenal and unders, which pays 11/4.
It makes the most of the Gunners' consistent habit of grinding teams down, and the market underestimating Forest. Arsenal are 6/4 to be winning at both half-time and full-time.
Odds correct 14:00 BST (16/10/26)
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