Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Take on Ten Hag's men again
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
One correct score and four correct results wasn't a bad outing for round 14, and it doesn't get any easier, with Super 6 pivoting to the midweek Carabao Cup slate, which means we have to factor in motivation and squad rotation as well as quality.
Last Carabao round saw me land four correct results, so let's see if we can better that this time...
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Round 15 predictions
- West Ham 0-2 Arsenal
- Bournemouth 1-3 Liverpool
- Chelsea 2-0 Blackburn
- Everton 2-0 Burnley
- Ipswich 2-1 Fulham
- Man Utd 0-1 Newcastle
Take on Ten Hag's men again
- Manchester United vs Newcastle
- Sky Sports: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
How bad can it get for Manchester United? Well, I think they lose on Wednesday and exit the Carabao Cup. Erik ten Hag has an already thin squad that lacks in quality in many areas, with their defence so easily exposed and their attack just lacking any kind of fluidity, averaging just 1.08 xGF per game across their last seven league matches.
How bad can it get for Manchester United? Well, I think they lose on Wednesday and exit the Carabao Cup. Erik ten Hag has an already thin squad that lacks in quality in many areas, with their defence so easily exposed and their attack just lacking any kind of fluidity, averaging just 1.08 xGF per game across their last seven league matches.
Manchester City racked up 4.00 xGF at Old Trafford at the weekend, and while I don't expect Newcastle to get to those levels, the Magpies are a better team than their hosts at both ends of the pitch and can get revenge on the team who beat them in the final of this competition last season.
Score prediction: Man Utd 0-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Gunners to fire past Hammers
- West Ham vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
West Ham appear to have reverted back to the team we saw last season, the one that flirted with relegation for most of the campaign. They looked toothless and tired against Everton in defeat at the weekend, and worryingly their defence is all over the place this term, shipping 2.08 xGA per game.
Arsenal's away form this season has been solid, winning five of seven in all competitions including some tricky contests (Palace, Brentford, Everton, Sevilla), and have the squad to make a real tilt at these cup competitions.
Score prediction: West Ham 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Not so cheery Cherries
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Though Bournemouth got their first league win of the campaign at the weekend, it'll be tough to follow it up in midweek against a Liverpool side in fine form. The Reds have the depth to rotate without losing too much quality, with goals flowing no matter who takes the field.
They have netted 36 times in their 14 games this season - an average of 2.57 per game - and it's hard to see the Cherries hanging keeping up with them in this game.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Blues to bounce back
- Chelsea vs Blackburn
- Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Chelsea's home record in the Premier League this calendar year is shocking. Fresh from a 2-0 loss to Brentford at Stamford Bridge, this does look a good game for them to get back on track and register a third straight home win in the Carabao Cup.
Performances have been decent on the whole for Mauricio Pochettino's side this term, and if they perform to their usual level they should have no issues getting past a Blackburn side who have conceded 1.6 xGA per game in the Championship this season.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Blackburn (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Toffees on top
- Everton vs Burnley
- Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Everton have started firing. They have won four of their last six in all competitions, with the main difference from earlier in the season being that they are taking their chances.
Sean Dyche's side will want to build on their momentum, so I expect them to take this seriously, and given they have generated 1.84 xGF per game in the league this season - 2.32 at home - they will create chances against a Burnley team who may have one eye on a home game with Crystal Palace this weekend.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
No stopping Tractor Boys
- Ipswich vs Fulham
- Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Fulham have a real problem in attack. They struggle to create chances - shown by their 1.10 xGF per game in the Premier League this season - and when they do create they don't really have anyone to stick the ball in the net.
Their top scorers this term have two goals - João Palhinha, Bobby Decordova-Reid and Carlos Vinicius - and they make the trip to Portman Road to face a red-hot team. Ipswich have won seven of their eight home games this season, including when hosting Wolves in the last round of the Carabao Cup.
They have in fact won 16 of their last 17 home games, so a shock could be on the cards on Wednesday.
Score prediction: Ipswich 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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