Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Dull derby delight for City
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
It was a decent round 13 for me, landing all results correctly bar Arsenal's draw at Chelsea, though the correct scores weren't exactly close for the most part.
Aston Villa's fourth goal in the 89th minute denied me the correct score in their hammering of West Ham, but we go again this week in what looks a tough slate, starting with the Manchester derby.
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Round 14 predictions
- Arsenal 3-0 Sheff Utd
- Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley
- Wolves 1-2 Newcastle
- West Ham 1-2 Everton
- Liverpool 3-0 N Forest
- Man Utd 0-1 Man City
City to edge dull affair
- Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 15:30 GMT
I could be going against the grain here, but I don't see many goals at Old Trafford on Sunday. Manchester United just aren't a very good team. Injuries have impacted them defensively, and while they have looked more solid of late, they have played a kind schedule.
At the other end they remain toothless, lacking cohesion and failing to create chances. It says a lot that the scorers of their last five goals have been Scott McTominay (3), Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire. Across their last six league games - versus a kind fixture list - United have generated just 1.13 xGF per game.
Attacking struggles are the order of the day in the blue corner too, with City somewhat struggling to carve out opportunities. They have generated a total of just 4.14 xGF across their last four league games, though they have at least got a league-leading defence to call upon (0.71 xGA per game) at the other end.
Score prediction: Man Utd 0-1 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
A case of how many?
- Arsenal vs Sheffield United
- Saturday, 15:00 BST
Arsenal, fresh off a comeback draw against Chelsea and an away Champions League success at Sevilla, should have no issues with bottom side Sheffield United at the weekend, it really is a case of how many they win by in my mind.
According to the underlying data, the Blades rank as the worst attacking team in the league (0.81 xGF per game) and the worst defensive team (2.71 xGA per game), but have - to their credit, I guess - only been beaten by more than two goals once this season, the 8-0 thrashing by Newcastle, so can keep the scoreline somewhat respectable.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Sheff Utd (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
All-square in El Sackio
- Bournemouth vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 BST
It's not groundbreaking news to say that both Andoni Iraola and Vincent Kompany are on the hotseat. Bournemouth are second-bottom and winless, while Burnley are third bottom just a point better off.
Both teams, and coaches, will have this down as a must-win game, both to potentially save their skin but also to beat a relegation rival. I haven't seen enough from either to trust in taking a side, though. Burnley have had arguably the toughest opening nine games of any team in the league, but have collected points against teams likely to be in and around them come the end of the season, and can do so again at the weekend.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Roaring Reds
- Liverpool vs N Forest
- Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Liverpool's home record is frankly ridiculous. Over the last six full seasons and the start of this season, the Reds have played host in the Premier League 118 times - they've won 89 times and lost on just seven occasions, six of which came in the COVID season, when they were plagued by defensive injuries.
They have made mincemeat of mid and bottom-half teams in recent years, and that should continue against a Nottingham Forest side likely to be without attacking starters Callum Hudson-Odoi and Taiwo Awoniyi, and a side vulnerable when travelling (1.70 xGA per game).
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 N Forest (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Hammers stuck in Toffee
- West Ham vs Everton
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 13:00 GMT
Everton were a no-show in the Merseyside derby, not helped by a red card of course, but that has been the case whenever they've played a decent team this season. Against Aston Villa (0.72 xGF), Arsenal (0.28) and Liverpool (0.09), they have struggled to create, but against teams outside the top eight this season, the Toffees have generated a whopping average of 2.75 xGF per game.
West Ham coming into this having played in Greece on Thursday, and have been surprisingly poor defensively this term - only Sheffield United, Bournemouth and Luton have allowed more xGA than the Hammers' 2.23 xGA per game. The Toffees could get another road win here.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Magpies to tame Wolves
- Wolves vs Newcastle
- Saturday, 15:00 BST
Wolves have hit a good run of form, but I'm not willing to suggest they are going to be comfortably safe just yet. Their defence remains vulnerable, with only the current bottom four plus West Ham allowing more xGA per game than Gary O'Neil's team (2.03).
Newcastle were stung in midweek by Dortmund, but that defeat could prove a blessing in disguise, and knock out any potential complacency they may have had heading into this contest. In the league, the Magpies rank as the best attacking team (2.50 xGF per game), the second best defensive team (0.99 xGA per game) and have accumulated the second most xP per game (2.12), highlighting their levels.
Despite a few injuries and a stacked schedule, they are a deep enough squad to wreak havoc against a vulnerable defensive side at Molineux.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
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