Jake Pearson previews Southampton's hosting of Norwich, picking out his best bet and a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 1/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
Throughout the whole of the English top-flight, Southampton are perhaps the best example of a whole being greater than the sum of its parts.
Undoubtedly, the Saints have individual quality throughout their starting eleven, but Ralph Hasenhüttl’s ability to mould a team in his direct image is almost unparalleled, particularly with the resources at his disposal.
Norwich are in the process of moving away from a vivid ideology, one employed by Daniel Farke during his tenure at the club, and towards a more results-based methodology implemented by Dean Smith.
Defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool in their last two matches were hardly unexpected, but no losses in their four previous fixtures in all competitions, including back-to-back Premier League wins, have renewed hope of survival at Carrow Road.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Southampton 1/2 | Draw 16/5 | Norwich 21/4
Unfortunately for the Canaries, they travel to face one of the most accomplished teams in the league at present, the Saints picking up the sixth most points in the division over the last eight matches.
Their price for victory is predictably short, and 1/2 is difficult to get behind even considering their recent performances.
The best bet in this fixture looks to be BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ at a top price of even money, with the emphasis more acutely concentrated on Southampton keeping Norwich at bay.
Though often associated with entertaining football, perhaps because of Hasenhüttl’s preference to press the opposition, games at St Mary’s have actually averaged the third lowest goals per game in the league this season (2.17).
The reason for this is arguably the impressive amount of control with which the Saints play with when at home. Not only do they have the eighth best home record in the division, losing just once on home soil all term, only Liverpool have actually spent fewer minutes in a losing position at home than Hasenhüttl’s men (57) – and that’s only by three minutes.
Add to this the fact that Norwich have failed to find the back of the net in 67% of their away matches this season, and it is not difficult to see the Saints record a clean sheet here.
Win to nil makes appeal in theory, but given most firms are 6/5 about Norwich not scoring, multiplying that with a Saints win actually comes out at a little bigger than 9/4, so the best price of 17/10 (2.7) about that selection does not represent value.
Also, by backing either one or neither team to find the back of the net, there is an amount of assurance should either the Canaries produce an impressive defensive display – which they could do after two clean sheets in their last five in all competitions – or Southampton produce a below-par attacking one – the Saints have drawn a blank on five occasions this season.
Southampton v Norwich best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 1/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (22/02/22)
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