For the second successive season, something changed Southampton’s fortunes: Christmas.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s team took the seventh most points before 25 December last year. After it, their meagre haul of 19 from 24 games was better only than Fulham’s record. For two-thirds of a campaign, Southampton were producing relegation form.
A year on, Hasenhuttl’s team reached the festive season in 15th. This time, they have gone in the opposite direction afterwards. Now they are in the top half. Only the Manchester clubs and Liverpool have got more points since Christmas.
Saints are in the top five scorers in the last two months, and they haven't exactly done it the easy way: six of their eight games have been played against top-eight teams. Southampton have scored in each.
Positive approach in Southampton's surge
Over the season as a whole, Southampton’s average of 4.52 shots on target per game is the seventh highest in the division, behind only the big six. Their total of 322 shots puts them eighth.
In recent weeks, they have been fashioning more opportunities. In their last six matches, they have had 89 shots, an average of 14.83 per game, and 43 on target, 7.16 per match.
It is all the more remarkable as their opponents included both Manchester clubs, Tottenham and a Wolves side with a superb defensive record.
Their total of 23 shots at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was both their highest this season and the most an Antonio Conte side has ever faced in a Premier League game.
FT: Tottenham 2-3 Southampton (xG: 1.94 - 2.12)
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) February 9, 2022
‣ Shots: 7 - 23
‣ On Target: 3 - 10
‣ Possession: 47% - 53%
A superb attacking showing from Ralph Hasenhüttl's side, who scored in the 79th and 82nd minutes to secure all three points. pic.twitter.com/DZVVb1J21T
That ratio of 48.3 percent of shots on target in those six matches follows a return of just 30.0 percent of attempts on target before then.
Their recent run owes much to good goalkeeping – since coming into the team on Boxing Day, Fraser Forster has conceded 11 goals from a post-shot expected goals of 12.9 while only three Premier League regulars can beat his save percentage for the season of 75.0 – but fine finishing also helps explain it.
Since Christmas, they have drawn with Tottenham (in December) and both Manchester clubs and beaten West Ham with a lower xG (expected goals). They have 16 goals from an xG of 13.77 in that time.
They have scored with efforts of an xG of 0.04 (James Ward-Prowse versus Wolves and Che Adams at Old Trafford) 0.05 (Ward-Prowse at home to Spurs and Stuart Armstrong against Everton), 0.06 (both Kyle Walker-Peters against Manchester City and Mohamed Elyounoussi at West Ham), 0.07 (Adams away at Tottenham), 0.08 (Jan Bednarek against the Hammers) and 0.11 (Elyounoussi in the win over Spurs).
In eight games, they have had nine goals from efforts that had a low probability of going in.
Since Christmas, Armando Broja is the only player to score for them and underperform his xG. Ward-Prowse (three goals from an xG of 1.09) and Elyounoussi (two from an xG of 0.60) are particular overachievers.
Ward-Prowse the Saints' star turn
The numbers show that Ward-Prowse has driven Southampton’s renaissance, with three goals and four assists in eight matches. The Southampton captain and Jarrod Bowen have the most assists in the division since Christmas, while only Bruno Fernandes and Heung-Min Son have a higher xA (expected assists) in that time.
He is the outstanding individual but they are no one-man team. Some 13 players are averaging at least 0.99 shots per 90 minutes since Christmas. Midfielder Stuart Armstrong (2.64) leads the way but their three main strikers, Adams, Broja and Adam Armstrong, are all over 2.0.
It is a sign of their attacking intent that the holding midfielder Oriol Romeu has averaged 1.43 shots and 1.57 key passes per 90 over the last eight games. Seven players are averaging at least 0.13 assists per 90, with Ward-Prowse on 0.32.
As a team, Southampton’s highest number of key passes in a match this season came in Saturday’s 2-0 win over Everton. They had 30 touches in the attacking penalty area against Frank Lampard’s team and 32 versus Tottenham, two of their highest totals this season.
The 1-1 draw against Manchester City brought some of their best defensive statistics: most blocks this season (24), most clearances (34) and second most tackles won (18).
In the 4-1 win over Brentford, they made their most interceptions (30). Against Everton, their 44.8 percent success rate at pressures was their highest in the campaign, showing that Hasenhuttl’s pressing game was working.
They have also shown they can have possession in such matches: 57 percent at home to Everton and away to Tottenham, 48 percent away at Manchester United and West Ham. They even had 47 percent at home to Spurs, when they were reduced to 10 men before half-time.
It shows their formula against their supposed superiors is not to defend deep and try and hold on, but to attack in their own right. Away at Tottenham, they had 50 percent more touches in the attacking third than the defensive (229-146).
It is a sign that Hasenhuttl’s front-foot football has taken Saints forwards.
