Premier League betting tips: Southampton v Burnley best bets and preview
Southampton and Burnley currently sit on the same points totals in the Premier League, but Jake Pearson thinks the Saints could prove too strong in this fixture.
Premier League betting tips: Southampton v Burnley
- 1pt Southampton to win at 23/20 (Unibet)
Southampton had won just one of their last 12 Premier League fixtures prior to the international break, and that sole victory came over bottom side Sheffield United, so it would be fair to assume that the stoppage in domestic football came at just the right time for Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side.
Having said that though, their final match before the World Cup qualifiers took hold came in the FA Cup, a quarter final tie against Bournemouth, and the Saints looked back to their previous best in that fixture, hammering the Cherries by three goals to nil.
Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 11/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/5
If Hasenhüttl’s men can continue that form into the rest of the campaign, then perhaps they can dispel what has been a bit of a catastrophic middle section of the season.
Southampton’s poor run of league form has left them level on points with today’s opponents, and while both sides will still be looking cautiously over their shoulders, it is highly unlikely that either will find themselves dragged back into the Premier League relegation battle, with the points gap back to the relegation zone now standing at seven.
A little like Southampton, Burnley entered the international break on something of a high, beating Everton 2-1 to end a run of five games without a win.
That victory came as something of a shock, particularly given Burnley’s poor record away from home, winning just four times this season and amassing the fourth lowest points total in the league.
A lot of this can be attributed to a combination of a lack of chances created, as well as poor finishing, with Burnley’s goal return of 10 when on the road better only than Sheffield United’s.
Also, in quite un-Burnley-like fashion, the Clarets have been defensively sloppy in their away fixtures, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Southampton’s home record is far from spectacular, winning just five of their matches at St Mary’s, but they have had a tough run of home fixtures of late, their last eight league matches on home soil coming against Manchester City, West Ham, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Wolves, Chelsea and Brighton.
The price on a Southampton home win may be shorter than it has been for a while, but given the level of opposition they have been faced with of late, that is more than understandable, and it could still represent value, particularly given Burnley look short themselves – away at Crystal Palace in February is the only time in their last 12 Premier League away matches that Burnley have been priced up this short.
Danny Ings has returned to training this week, as has Theo Walcott, and a return to the starting line-up for those two would boosts Southampton’s chances further.
This is likely to be a tightly-knit affair, with Burnley rarely going down without a fight, but Hasenhüttl’s men may just have too much for the Clarets.
SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN is widely available at a shade of odds against, and that looks the smart bet in this fixture.
Southampton v Burnley best bets and score prediction
1pt Southampton to win at 23/20 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Southampton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 1600 BST (31/03/21)
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