Sky Bet EFL: Match previews and best bets for fixtures on Saturday March 14
With profit returned in recent previews, Tom Carnduff is searching for more and has two big-priced goalscorer selections to consider.
Recommended bets
1pt Shaun Hutchinson to score anytime in Millwall v Derby at 11/1
1pt Nick Powell to score anytime in Reading v Stoke at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Millwall v Derby
Much like Reading and Stoke, Millwall have benefitted from their decision to change manager during the season as they now sit on the verge of the play-off positions.
Gary Rowett's men could move into the top-six with victory over Derby on Saturday but the Rams will hold some play-off aspirations of their own. The general poor run of results overall for those in-and-around that part of the table has left them five points off sixth.
The main issue is that they are currently 12th and there's a group of other teams around them looking to break into that part of the table.
Phillip Cocu's side have had too much of a reliance on home results as well. They sit second in the home standings with ten wins from 19 matches but find themselves 21st in the away table.
In Millwall, they take on a side who have only lost three of their 18 league games in front of their own supporters. It makes the hosts' 11/10 price tempting value to include in the weekend accumulators.
Instead of taking that outright price, the value again comes in the goalscorer market and backing a Millwall defender to find the net.
In our preview of Millwall's 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, we discussed their strength from set-piece situations and how dangerous they are from corners and attacking set-pieces.
Following that win in the East Midlands, 41% of their overall goals this season have come from set-pieces. Jake Cooper went close to grabbing a goal himself last time out.
In this game though, we're going to back his defensive partner Shaun Hutchinson getting onto the scoresheet given his dominance in the air.
The 29-year-old's last five games have seen him win a combined 34 aerial duels. Over the course of this season, Hutchinson sits seventh for aerial duels won overall in the Championship.
Derby have seen 33% of their goals against away from home this campaign come from set-pieces. At the Den, against a team chasing for promotion and possessing clear dominance in this area, they are likely to come undone from a similar situation.
Taking Hutchinson's best price of 11/1 for a goal anytime looks good value in this contest.
Best bet: Shaun Hutchinson to score anytime at 11/1
Opta facts
- Millwall are looking to record a league double over Derby for the second consecutive season, having beaten the Rams twice during the 2018-19 campaign.
- Derby have won just one of their last 12 away games against Millwall in all competitions (W1 D5 L6).
- Former Derby manager Gary Rowett has won his last three Championship games against the Rams, all with different clubs – Birmingham (2015-16), Stoke (2018-19) and Millwall earlier this season.
- Millwall are without a win in their last four home league games, drawing the last three in a row (L1). They last went five without winning at home in March 2019.
- Derby are looking to win three consecutive league games for the first time since September 2018. However, the Rams are winless in their last 13 away league games in London (D7 L6), losing all four such games in 2019-20.
- Millwall striker Matt Smith (11), who scored a hat-trick last time out vs Nottingham Forest, is one goal away from equalling his best scoring season in the Championship (12 with Leeds in 2013-14).
Reading v Stoke
A clash between two sides who made positive managerial changes over the course of the season.
Since Michael O'Neill arrived at Stoke, his side sit sixth in the form charts. For Reading, they'd be fifth with eleven wins from their 26 games.
The Potters' revival has been made more impressive by the fact they looked relegation certainties before opting for a switch. Eight points from the opening 15 games not only left them in danger for the drop, but to also potentially break the record for lowest points tally.
They're now three points above the relegation zone and will travel to Reading full of confidence. Both sides are priced up around the 17/10 mark which highlights how this game is fancied to go either way.
Instead, it's worth delving into the goalscorer market and looking at that Stoke midfield. We had success in this column last weekend with Sam Clucas netting anytime at a price of 7/2.
This week, we're going slightly bigger and taking the 9/2 on offer for Nick Powell to grab a goal. The attacking midfielder scored twice in that 5-1 hammering of Hull last time out.
Earlier this week, we published an in-depth look at Stoke's revival under O'Neill. The intent for attack was clear; only Leeds (37) and Brentford (46) have scored more goals than the Potters since O'Neill's appointment.
The stand-out element of that is their reliance on the midfield areas to contribute. Of their 36 goals scored under O'Neill, 15 of those have been shared between three central midfield players (Sam Clucas - seven, Joe Allen - four, Nick Powell - four).
Powell's shot stats demonstrate that desire to find the net. There's been at least one shot in each of his last seven Sky Bet Championship games - with a total of eleven shots across the last three.
There were five shots in their away draw with Blackburn while he also posted three in the away defeat at QPR. He's enjoyed his return to the side in 2020 and there's real value in backing his great run to continue on Saturday.
Best bet: Nick Powell to score anytime at 9/2
Opta facts
- In all competitions, five of the last six meetings between Reading and Stoke have ended as draws, with Stoke winning 2-1 in the other in February 2013.
- Stoke are winless in their last 14 away league visits to Reading (D6 L8) since a 1-0 win in December 1992.
- Reading have picked up just 23 points at the Madejski Stadium this season, only Barnsley (22) and Hull (21) have won fewer on home soil.
- Only Fulham (22) have won more points in the Championship in 2020 than Stoke City (21).
- After a run of one win in 10 league games (D4 L5), Reading have won consecutive matches – last winning three in a row in January 2020 (run of 4).
- Six of Stoke striker Tyrese Campbell’s seven league goals this season have arrived under current manager Michael O’Neill, averaging a goal every 123 minutes.
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Odds correct as of 1640 GMT on 11/03/20
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