Analysing the numbers behind Michael O'Neill's Stoke City revolution
Michael O'Neill's turnaround of a Stoke side who looked nailed on for relegation after the opening months of the season has been nothing short of remarkable.
The Potters were one of the fancied sides for success at the beginning of the campaign but a disastrous start under Nathan Jones saw them rooted to the bottom of the Sky Bet Championship table as November arrived.
Their odds for the drop fell as short as 5/2 following defeat at home to West Brom. That was the last game of the era before O'Neill. However, last week Stoke found themselves as 14/1 outsiders.
But just how big of an impact has O'Neill made during his time at the club? Tom Carnduff looks at the numbers.
Picking up the points
Regardless of the number of changes made, or the style of play that has been implemented, a manager will always be judged by the number of points their team earns while they are at the helm.
For O'Neill, this was significantly important given the position in which the Potters found themselves. He walked into a club who had picked up just eight points from their opening 15 games.
That incredibly slow start should have seen Stoke struggle, even with the points a new manager will bring. However, their form under O'Neill has been one of a side contending for the play-offs, not battling to avoid the drop.
There have been nine losses in his 22 games but they've secured 34 points following his appointment. Not only has that lifted them off the bottom of the table but it's moved them three points clear of the relegation zone.
It works out at 1.55 points per match. That average over the course of a 46-game season would see them gain a total of 71 points - a tally that could have resulted in sneaking into the play-offs based on the expected final table for the 2019/20 campaign.
Stoke's average points-per-game total should also see them finish with around 56 points this season if they continue at the current rate. That would have seen them finish 16th at the end of the previous campaign, overtaking the Stoke team in that position by a single point.
For comparison, if the Potters continued at the rate they were going before O'Neill was given the role, they would expect to finish on a total of 24 points - one point better than the record low tally posted by Rotherham in 2016/17. Rotherham had seven points after their 15th game of that campaign.
Goals, goals, goals
"I like my team to play on the front foot," O'Neill told the media in his first press conference in November.
"I like energy in my team, I like intensity in my team in a 4-3-3 system, whatever that may be, or a 4-4-2 at times.
"I think supporters want to see a team that is set up in a positive way and approaches the game in a positive way. That’s the message that we’ve hammered home to the players."
The squad appear to have taken to that message with little issue. Stoke's 5-1 demolition of Hull in their last outing was the third time they had scored four of more goals in a game since O'Neill took to the dugout.
Of course, as is the case with any team who are fighting against relegation, they've been on the receiving end of hefty defeats too. Derby and QPR can boast being the two sides who have hit the four-goal mark against the Potters.
However, Stoke's form since Matchday 16 puts them sixth in the table. A real point of interest though is that they've scored 36 goals over that time. Only Leeds (37) and Brentford (46) have scored more.
In the 15 games prior to O'Neill, Stoke had scored a mere 13, with Middlesbrough's 11 keeping them off the bottom of the goals scored charts. Their 27 goals conceded could only be 'bettered' by Barnsley.
They may have conceded more goals since then (28) but the fact that they've played seven more games shows how the defence is also gradually improving. Crucially, over that 22-game period, Stoke's goal difference sits at a pleasing +8.
The table may put Stoke among the worst teams in England's second tier. Their performances since the managerial switch suggest otherwise.
Midfield contribution
The strikers department has been a difficult one for Stoke to get right this season.
Lee Gregory, Sam Vokes, Tyrese Campbell and even Mame Diouf have been called upon at various points to provide the main attacking threat.
To their credit, they have been contributing, Campbell and Vokes particularly, but they've failed to find the one prolific player that those at the top-end of the division possess.
The Potters do have a midfield that brings goals, though. With O'Neill aiming to create a side intent on front foot football, he's revolutionised that area of the squad to have that at the forefront of their mind.
Of their 36 goals scored under O'Neill, 15 of those have been shared between three central midfield players (Sam Clucas - seven, Joe Allen - four, Nick Powell - four).
James McClean has netted a further four from the left midfield area but has missed the previous five games through injury. 19 of the goals coming from four midfield players highlights the impact those in the middle are making in an attacking sense.
It takes the pressure off those at the top-end of the pitch to perform. It does raise the question, though, of where this Stoke team could go with a regular scoring forward in their side week in, week out.
What about the future?
As mentioned, Stoke's form under their current manager has been that of a team chasing promotion, not one looking to avoid the drop.
This season will see the Sky Bet Championship lose Leeds and West Brom, who are strengthening their case for automatic promotion as the weeks progress.
Brentford and Fulham's likely involvement in the play-offs will also see a probable meeting at Wembley in the final; another strong attacking side making their way to the Premier League.
What that means for Stoke is there will be a space at the top to claim in a full season with O'Neill in charge.
The summer will inevitably bring some changes among the current playing staff as the manager looks to create a squad that is better adapted to the way he wants to play. With that aim for attack, a striker will likely be top of the summer shopping list but the biggest positive has been O'Neill's ability to work with the current group of players.
In Campbell, they have a forward who could be developed into the top-end Championship striker that they desire. The 20-year-old's current rate of seven goals in 24 appearances (12 from the bench) would see him strike 14 goals over the course of a season. With regular starts, that would likely hit 20+.
The transformation of this side from relegation certainties to one that are now big outsiders for the drop is the biggest praise for the current management.
The 2020/21 campaign should be one that sees Stoke battling at the other end of the table throughout; a season that may culminate in them being presented the Championship trophy in Staffordshire.
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