Derby County's play-off chances rest on a final-day trip to Sheffield Wednesday, a team they have recent history with. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and a best bet.
Football betting tips: League One
1pt Half-time score 0-0 at 21/10 (Sporting Index)
Football has a funny way of coming full circle – and for a second time in three years, Derby County face Sheffield Wednesday on the final day of the campaign with what amounts to the Rams' whole season on the line.
On May 8 2021, Derby twice came from behind to draw 3-3 with Wednesday, saving themselves from the drop and condemning the Owls to relegation instead in one of the most thrilling Championship finales ever.
Almost two years to the day later, the Rams head to Hillsborough knowing a win will secure their spot in the Sky Bet League One play-offs, maybe setting up two more meetings with third-placed Wednesday (depending on fifth-placed Bolton’s result).
A defeat or draw lets in Peterborough, two points behind the Rams, if Darren Ferguson's side can win at Barnsley, although a Derby draw would mean Posh would need to beat the Tykes by three goals or more.
It has all the hallmarks of one those nail-biting final days that have fans at both grounds checking their phones 10 times a minute.
Kick-off time: 12:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Sheff Wed 29/20 | Draw 23/10 | Derby 17/10
Derby have the advantage of having their destiny in their own hands but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about their prospects. Wednesday will remember that fateful day at Pride Park two years ago and could want revenge, even though they have little to play for with their play-off spot already secure.
The Owls have been imperious at home all season (W15 D6 L1), while Derby’s away record against the division’s better sides is poor – they haven’t won away to a top-half team and have lost to all of the top six other than a goalless draw at Bolton.
Cards on the table, it’s tough to call the outcome here as we have no idea how seriously Darren Moore's Owls will take it. Paul Warne's Derby could play for a draw too given Posh winning by three or more at Barnsley is unlikely.
What I like about that latter eventuality is that the Rams’ numbers this season back it up – 41% of their away games have been goalless at the break, the most in League One. If they want to keep it tight, they can.
In a must-not-lose game like this, it makes sense to do exactly that until the interval and see where Posh are then – making the 21/10 on 0-0 HALF-TIME SCORE the best value play on such an unpredictable day.
Sheffield Wednesday v Derby County score prediction and best bet
- Half-time score 0-0 at 21/10 (Sporting Index)
Score prediction: Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Derby County (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1400 BST (05/05/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
