Premier League betting tips: Sheffield United v Brighton best bets and preview
Brighton can take a huge step towards Premier League safety with victory at already-relegated Sheffield United on Saturday evening. Michael Beardmore has best bets.
Football betting tips: Sheffield United v Brighton
1pt Brighton to win to nil at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Lewis Dunk to score first at 22/1 (1/3 odds 1-98 places) (Bet 365)
Safety is firmly in sight for Brighton – and it will be all but certain come Saturday night if they can heap another defeat upon a Sheffield United side who must have forgotten how it feels to win.
Nine defeats in 10 games in all competitions plus the departure of much-loved manager Chris Wilder in the midst of that run have made it a sorrowful springtime for the Blades.
Results have failed to pick up despite the inevitability of their fate lifting any real pressure, while Brighton head to Bramall Lane in decent fettle.
In their past five games, the Seagulls have beaten Southampton and Newcastle, lost narrowly and somewhat unluckily at Old Trafford before holding Everton and Chelsea to creditable stalemates.
Have Sheffield United thrown in the towel?
The Blades’ figures before Wilder left were bad enough but since his departure they have been simply shocking and they appear bereft of fight or quality to restore any pride.
They have already surpassed Derby’s record low Premier League points total so have at least avoided that embarrassment but the Blades have netted just twice in their past nine matches.
United’s xG (expected goals figure) in the four league games since Wilder left are 0.07, 0.92, 0.34 and 0.52 – they are a team barely creating chances, never mind putting them away.
It’s not a good recipe considering only Manchester City (0.80 xGA pg – expected goals against per game) and Chelsea (0.89 xGA) have a better defensive process than Brighton (1.08).
The Seagulls have kept three clean sheets in five, including against elite sides in Everton and Chelsea so everything points to BRIGHTON TO WIN TO NIL at a generously boosted 15/8 with Sky Bet.
Brighton have had trouble converting dominance into goals this season – Infogol’s xG table says they should be as high as fifth given chances created and conceded – but they should be good enough to score once or twice without reply in Yorkshire.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Lewis Dunk is big Brighton goal threat
In his excellent Fantasy Football gameweek tips (click on the image above), Tom Carnduff details why Brighton skipper Lewis Dunk is a good shout for a goal here.
Danny Welbeck (2s anytime, 11/2 first goal) and Leandro Trossard (10/3 anytime, 8/1 first goal – the latter being the best of that bunch) have both hit form recently but are understandably short in the scoring markets given the opposition so I’m going for a slam Dunk.
The big centre-half is Brighton’s joint second leading scorer on four and is historically good for a few goals per season, as well as registering an average of a shot per game this campaign.
Sheffield United have conceded 11 set-piece goals this season and DUNK TO SCORE FIRST is a whopping 22/1 with Bet 365, a bet we can take to each way terms at a third of the odds with their 1-98 place offer, equating to better than 7/1 anytime.
Sheffield United v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- Brighton to win to nil at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
- Lewis Dunk to score first at 22/1 (1/3 odds 1-98 places) (Bet 365)
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1700 BST (21/04/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
