Southampton and Derby played out an entertaining 2-2 draw last time out, but George Pitts expects it to be more straightforward this time around.
Southampton v Derby (1945 GMT kick-off, BBC One)
A match that looked like a potential banana skin in the list of FA Cup third round ties and the Rams gave it a good go, battling from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Pride Park.
The replay sees Frank Lampard's side get another go at booking their place in the fourth round, with the victor facing an away trip to Sky Bet League One side Accrington.
A replay was not something either of these sides needed at this stage of the season, though.
The Saints are still busy trying to steer clear of the Premier League drop under Ralph Hasenhuttl - they are just one point ahead of 18th-place Newcastle - while Derby sit in the final play-off place in the Sky Bet Championship.
The Rams were disappointing as they were well beaten by Leeds on Friday and Lampard will be keen to see a reaction from his men.
Betting guide
Prediction: Southampton 2-0 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
The Saints have improved since Austrian boss Hasenhuttl replaced Mark Hughes, losing just two of their last seven in all competitions and they ground out a great away win over Leicester at the weekend. With neither side particularly wanting to stay in the competition, the feeling is that the Saints will have that little bit more quality in front of their own fans.
Best bet: Southampton to win and under 3.5 total goals at 29/20
While the first tie did have four goals and a comeback from Derby, the overall feeling is this game will be less welcome for both now and they will be much changed to cope with the fixtures. Seeing this at above evens allows the freedom of a 2-1 scoreline and looks like good value against a Derby side which has won just one of their last seven outings in all competitions.
RequestABet: Southampton to score 2+ goals, 3+ corners each team and Nathan Redmond to score anytime at 9/2
Opta statistics
- Southampton have won none of their five FA Cup games against Derby County (D2 L3), conceding exactly two goals in four of those games.
- Derby are winless in their last six games against Southampton in all competitions (D3 L3), since a 2-1 victory in the first leg of the 2006-07 Championship Play-Off semi-finals.
- Southampton have progressed through to the next round in each of their last 10 FA Cup fixtures against lower league opposition, last failing to do so against Bristol Rovers in round five in 2007-08.
- Derby County have lost eight of their last nine away FA Cup games against sides from the Premier League (W1), with a 2-1 third round victory against West Brom in 2016-17 the only exception.
Odds correct as of 2025 GMT on 15/01/19
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