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Olivier Giroud celebrates a goal for Chelsea1

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Southampton v Derby betting preview: Free FA Cup third-round replay tips, prediction and latest odds

Our best bets for the latest FA Cup round
Our best bets for the latest FA Cup round

Southampton and Derby played out an entertaining 2-2 draw last time out, but George Pitts expects it to be more straightforward this time around.

Recommended bets

2pts Southampton to win and under 3.5 total goals at 29/20

For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record


Southampton v Derby (1945 GMT kick-off, BBC One)

A match that looked like a potential banana skin in the list of FA Cup third round ties and the Rams gave it a good go, battling from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Pride Park.

The replay sees Frank Lampard's side get another go at booking their place in the fourth round, with the victor facing an away trip to Sky Bet League One side Accrington.

FA Cup celebrations for Derby's Tom Lawrence
FA Cup celebrations for Derby's Tom Lawrence

A replay was not something either of these sides needed at this stage of the season, though.

The Saints are still busy trying to steer clear of the Premier League drop under Ralph Hasenhuttl - they are just one point ahead of 18th-place Newcastle - while Derby sit in the final play-off place in the Sky Bet Championship.

The Rams were disappointing as they were well beaten by Leeds on Friday and Lampard will be keen to see a reaction from his men.


Betting guide

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl celebrates on the touchline
Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl celebrates on the touchline

Prediction: Southampton 2-0 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
The Saints have improved since Austrian boss Hasenhuttl replaced Mark Hughes, losing just two of their last seven in all competitions and they ground out a great away win over Leicester at the weekend. With neither side particularly wanting to stay in the competition, the feeling is that the Saints will have that little bit more quality in front of their own fans.

Best bet: Southampton to win and under 3.5 total goals at 29/20
While the first tie did have four goals and a comeback from Derby, the overall feeling is this game will be less welcome for both now and they will be much changed to cope with the fixtures. Seeing this at above evens allows the freedom of a 2-1 scoreline and looks like good value against a Derby side which has won just one of their last seven outings in all competitions.

RequestABet: Southampton to score 2+ goals, 3+ corners each team and Nathan Redmond to score anytime at 9/2


Opta statistics

Celebrations for Southampton in the FA Cup v Derby
Celebrations for Southampton in the FA Cup v Derby
  • Southampton have won none of their five FA Cup games against Derby County (D2 L3), conceding exactly two goals in four of those games.
  • Derby are winless in their last six games against Southampton in all competitions (D3 L3), since a 2-1 victory in the first leg of the 2006-07 Championship Play-Off semi-finals.
  • Southampton have progressed through to the next round in each of their last 10 FA Cup fixtures against lower league opposition, last failing to do so against Bristol Rovers in round five in 2007-08.
  • Derby County have lost eight of their last nine away FA Cup games against sides from the Premier League (W1), with a 2-1 third round victory against West Brom in 2016-17 the only exception.

Odds correct as of 2025 GMT on 15/01/19

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Most Read Football

Olivier Giroud celebrates a goal for Chelsea1

Welcome win for Sarri's Blues

Maurizio Sarri enjoyed the perfect confidence boost ahead of Sunday’s Carabao Cup final as Chelsea beat Malmo 3-0 to make the last 16 of the Europa League.

Ryan Giggs2

‘United's worst case scenario!’

Ryan Giggs, speaking exclusively to Sporting Life, discusses Manchester United v Liverpool and the current state of the Premier League title race.

Sokratis and Aubameyang celebrate for Arsenal3

Europa League review

Arsenal safely negotiated their way into the last 16 of the Europa League with a 3-0 win over BATE Borisov at the Emirates, while Celtic went out in Valencia.

Sporting Life's Premier League preview package4

Friday night Premier League tips

Friday Night Football returns in the Premier League with not one but two matches taking place under the floodlights.

Get all the latest football gossip from the day's back pages5

Paper Talk: PSG eye Hudson-Odoi

Paris Saint-Germain have joined the list of clubs interested in Callum Hudson-Odoi plus plenty more on today's back pages.

Football Tips

Sporting Life's Premier League preview package

Friday night Premier League tips

Friday Night Football returns in the Premier League with not one but two matches taking place under the floodlights.

Sergio Aguero (right) celebrates his hat-trick for Manchester City against Arsenal

Sporting Life Tipping Record

A look at how the Sporting Life recommended bets have performed in February 2019.

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Check out all of our available betting tips and previews of the forthcoming sporting action.