Premier League title race: Arsenal, Liverpool or Man City to win it?
The last three-way Premier League title race, exactly a decade ago, was an all-time classic and yet it had nowhere near the technical and tactical quality of what we are witnessing this season.
Jose Mourinho’s ugly, scowling Chelsea were cast as the villains and disruptors, their role being to destroy the dreams of others.
Brendan Rodgers’ excitable Liverpool were the feel-good story with destiny on their side.
Manuel Pellegrini’s Manchester City were… completely forgettable; the accidental winners sneaking through the middle as Chelsea crashed into Liverpool.
This year’s story probably won’t match that one - it will likely lack a legendary ‘we do not let this slip’ moment – because the drama of 2013/14 tends only to happen when quality is low, the football shaky enough for wild swings or frantic slips to occur.
This year’s title battle will be closer to 2018/19, when Man City and Liverpool won pretty much every single game in the run-in, swapping positions at the top only for a few hours between their weekend matches.
Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool are just too good for a classic story, although each has enough flaws to suggest it won’t be quite as one-note as some City versus Liverpool tussles have been in recent years.
Premier League table after 28 games:
- Arsenal - 64 pts | GD: +46 | GF: 70
- Liverpool - 64 pts | GD: +39 | GF: 65
- Man City - 63 pts | GD: +35 | GF: 63
Premier League winner (odds via Sky Bet)
- Man City - 5/4
- Liverpool - 2/1
- Arsenal - 9/4
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (27/03/24)
For a start, the points tallies will be lower. At the current rate, Arsenal and Liverpool will finish on 87 points and Man City on 86, a tally just below average for champions in the Premier League era.
That is partially a natural consequence of there being three (rather than two) taking points from one another, but it also speaks to Man City’s slight frailty compared to years gone by, Liverpool’s injury crisis, Arsenal’s propensity to wobble every now and then, and the Premier League in 2024 being of higher quality than it has ever been.
It makes predicting the eventual winner an impossible task. With ten matches left, there are very few clues.
Who will win the Premier League?
Arsenal technically hold all the cards.
They are one point clear and begin the run-in at Man City, where victory would almost put the hosts out of the race, but they also have the toughest fixture list of the three.
They travel to Brighton, Spurs and Manchester United, as well as hosting Chelsea and Aston Villa.
But these aren’t the games that will worry Mikel Arteta. If there is one flaw remaining in this side it is how to break down a stubborn defensive block; how to cope with the pressure when the scores are level and the clock is ticking down.
Kai Havertz ghosting into space has improved Arsenal in this regard, as we saw with his late winner against Brentford, but if their period of blitzing teams 5-0 is over, it is an issue likely to reoccur.
Luton at home, Wolves away, Everton at home on the final day: Arsenal could become unnerved and unstuck in any of these, and are far more likely to do so than a cool-headed Man City or a Liverpool team carrying Klopp’s last-dance energy.
Arsenal’s defensive record is their biggest strength, and there is no reason to assume this will diminish. Declan Rice will keep driving them on; William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes will continue the league’s best centre-back partnership.
But until they get over the line, there will always be the lurking danger of another limp run against mid-table sides gnawing away at fans who, once anxious, could infect the players.
Man City are the obvious favourites and yet widespread belief in their inevitability is a little misplaced.
We should not let muscle memory of the last six years cloud our judgement of the specific flaws of this incarnation, which is notably slower and more vulnerable to the counter-attack than ever before under Pep Guardiola.
An aggressive pressing side can get at Man City, as Aston Villa and Liverpool have proved over the last few months, and unlike in years gone by Guardiola does not have a deep bench to draw upon and change the course of a game.
The expected string of wins hasn’t arrived yet and, with Arsenal, Aston Villa and Spurs coming up in their next five, it doesn’t look likely.
Guardiola lacks midfield control alongside Rodri, having failed to replace Ilkay Gundogan successfully, and with Jack Grealish struggling, Kevin de Bruyne not back to his best and Erling Haaland out of form, there just isn’t the same aura of invincibility around them this year.
Liverpool certainly do have an aura, created by Klopp’s decision to resign at the end of the season, which has created a sense of destiny about Anfield. The last time that happened, mind, was ten years ago and we all know how that ended.
But Liverpool have the deepest squad of the three and, with injuries beginning to clear up, it feels like Klopp’s side are the likeliest to score late goals and keep on 'keeping on'.
Klopp has never had such a variety of forwards at his disposal and we have seen him use substitutions to great effect countless times this season, which, coupled with the emotional intensity of this being his final year, really could give them the edge.
But perhaps most important of all, their run-in looks inviting. Assuming a trip to Old Trafford isn’t the challenge it once was, Liverpool’s next six are very winnable, before things get tougher with a last three of Spurs (h), Villa (a) and Wolves (h).
That’s harder than the other two, but if by that time Liverpool have a two- or three-point lead at the top, you would expect them to ride that wave of self-belief and get over the line.
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