- Published prior to games on December 22 and 23
Reigning champs Manchester City remain favourites to win a record-breaking fourth straight Premier League title.
But after drawing with Crystal Palace this weekend, they have remained at the odds-against price they found themselves in before the weekend action.
Pep Guardiola's side are five points off top spot in the Premier League table after 17 matches, and are now available to back at a best price of 6/4.
Premier League title odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 5/4
- Arsenal - 9/4
- Liverpool - 11/4
- Aston Villa - 12/1
- Tottenham 28/1
- 200/1 bar
Odds correct at 1900 GMT (17/12/23)
Despite going through a sticky patch of form, winning just one of their last six league games, the Cityzens still top the expected points (xP) table, while they continue to boast the best underlying xG process in the division (+1.25 xGD per game).
That level is only slightly worse than last season's treble-winning side, which averaged +1.32 xGD per game, suggesting Pep's men aren't doing too much wrong. Perhaps they have been unfortunate not to have collected more points.
They break for the Club World Cup now and don't play again in the Premier League until they take on Everton on December 27.
Is this Arsenal's year?
Arsenal lead the way on 39 points.
At the same stage last season, the Gunners had accumulated 44 points, though their underlying process back then and at the current time is extremely similar.
The question around them is the same as last season - can they maintain the pace and deal with the pressure leading from the front?
Arteta's men are best priced at 5/2 to do so this season, but face arguably their biggest test of the season next weekend as they travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool.
Liverpool missed the chance to go top of the table as they could only draw with Manchester United, but are just a point off top having started the season much better than last.
In fact, Jurgen Klopp's men have picked up ten more points than at the same stage last season.
They are a transformed team, especially in midfield, but remain somewhat inconsistent, and haven't been as controlled as Arsenal through the opening stretches of the season.
The Reds can be backed at 3/1 to win a second Premier League title.
Any chance for Villa or Spurs?
Of course, we must mention Aston Villa, who at this stage of the campaign at least, have put themselves in the title conversation.
Unai Emery's men are a winning machine, sitting level on points with Liverpool heading into the busy Christmas period.
They have a four-point cushion to City, and perhaps more importantly, five clear of fifth-placed Spurs.
Having been 200/1 pre-season, the fact Villa are now 16/1 to win the title says everything you need to know about their incredible start to the campaign.
Spurs aren't out of it either, just six points off the top after steadying the ship following their mini-slump. A continued winning run seems unlikely given they rank as only the 12th-best defence in the league this season according expected goals against (xGA).
It does look like we may have a proper race on our hands this season, maybe a four-team one, but just remember - Manchester City are used to giving opponents a head start before finding another gear in the second half of the season.
Given their underlying data remains strong, they welcome back some key players in the New Year, and they are only the same number of points behind as they were at this stage last season, now just might be the time to back the reigning champions.
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