Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 31
- Jake Osgathorpe is +60.8pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Luis Diaz to score anytime in Liverpool vs Sheff Utd at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Marc Cucurella to be carded in Chelsea vs Man Utd at 3/1 (Unibet)
Already advised:
1.5pts Alexander Isak to score anytime in Newcastle vs Everton at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Man City vs Aston Villa at 21/10 (Unibet)
0.5pt Arsenal to win from behind vs Luton at 7/1 (BetVictor)
We have a quick turnaround for the next gameweek of Premier League action, but we can't complain after the last round of fixtures which were incredibly fun for the neutral - apart from the big game of the weekend.
It is becoming a trend that all contests between the title chasing teams are cagey, low-scoring affairs, something we profited from by backing the unders in Manchester City vs Arsenal, but thankfully there are no such clashes in this midweek round.
Let's hope for more drama and loads more goals as continues to be the case in the top flight this season.
Liverpool vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Thursday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 1/16 | Draw 11/1 | Away 25/1
How can we find a bet in a game where the favourites are priced at 1/16? Well, with Liverpool heavily fancied to win and win in style, we head to the goalscorer markets.
Mohamed Salah (8/15), Darwin Nunez (4/6) are understandably short, but the price about LUIS DIAZ TO SCORE ANYTIME makes little sense to me.
The Colombian has been excellent of late, and his attacking output has been sensational across his last eight Premier League games, averaging 0.51 goals, 0.67 xG and 4.44 shots per 90.
In fact, since the 30th of January, only Erling Haaland (6.5 xG) and Dominic Solanke (5.6 xG) have been on the end of more xG than Diaz (5.3), highlighting how he's finding himself in good scoring positions regularly.
Against a Sheffield United defence who have conceded 33 goals in their last 10 matches, the Reds should have their way with the Blades and Diaz looks a great angle for us to profit.
Score prediction: Liverpool 4-1 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Chelsea vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Thursday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home evs | Draw 29/10 | Away 9/4
Let's be honest. We don't know what we are going to get with Chelsea, and while we know Manchester United are utterly rubbish, it wouldn't surprise anyone if they went to Stamford Bridge and prevailed in what will be a wide open game full of chances for both sides.
Goals should flow, Chelsea should have a gazillion shots as every other of United's opponents have recently and we should see plenty of cards thanks to the appointment of Jarred Gillett, who has dished 4.9 cards per game in the Premier League this season.
MARC CUCURELLA's price to BE CARDED looks large given his direct opponent will likely be Alejandro Garnacho, supported by an overlapping Diogo Dalot, in a contest with a load of space for the United right to exploit in transition.
The Spaniard has been carded six times in the league this season despite playing just 883 minutes, with his card per 90 average of 0.61 the joint second highest in the entire division.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Newcastle vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 19/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 5/2
Newcastle's stunning late comeback against West Ham at the weekend was just more of what we have seen from the Magpies of late - chaos.
Eddie Howe's side have been serious entertainers of late, with their last 10 league matches seeing a whopping 52 goals! Their last seven at St James' Park has seen 34 goals scored, so even if Everton aren't one of the more adventurous sides in the league, we should expect plenty of chances on Tuesday.
I thought Newcastle's price to win was pretty appealing at 21/20, but given the number of goals they are conceding at the moment I can't quite bring myself to back it, but instead I'll back ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Swede has scored four in four since returning from injury, scoring in his last three outings. He is on penalty duty which obviously helps this bet, but it is worth noting that Isak ranks joint-third in the entire league for expected goals (xG) per 90, so he sees plenty of good chances regularly.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
N Forest vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Nottingham Forest moved out of the relegation zone with a point against Crystal Palace at the weekend, but it was another disappointing performance at home under Nuno Espirito Santo. Fulham scored very late to equalise against Sheffield United, but Marco Silva's side continue to be poor travellers.
The Cottagers have won just two of 15 away games, losing eight, so this seems a good opportunity for Forest to get a rare win, though I don't think they'll manage it.
Score prediction: N Forest 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
West Ham vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 21/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 21/20
Goals should flow here between these two sides, with neither fully convincing defensively but both packing a punch in attack.
I've got this down as an entertaining draw, and from a betting perspective I have previewed this game separately with two card bets proposed, Yves Bissouma and Tomas Soucek.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Arsenal vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 1/9 | Draw 17/2 | Away 18/1
Arsenal looked dead on their feet after the goalless draw with Manchester City at the weekend, and Luton can take advantage early on. The Hatters have been fast starters in recent weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them catch the Gunners cold on Wednesday.
Rob Edwards' side have a tragic away record (W2 D4 L9), but they have taken the lead in four of their last seven road league games, including at Anfield and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so it isn't totally unrealistic that they get their noses in front at the Emirates too.
In both of those matches Luton went on to lose, with the top tier sides wearing the relegation scrappers down and turning the game around, so at a price of 7/1, I think it's worth a small bet on ARSENAL TO WIN FROM BEHIND on Wednesday.
The Gunners have been running riot of late, if we ignore the City game, so we should expect them to score plenty here and eventually get the win. Don't forget, this bet would have won in the reverse game as Luton went 3-2 up before losing 4-3, so here's hoping the Hatters fly out of the traps.
Score prediction: Arsenal 4-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Brentford vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 8/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 6/4
How good were Brentford against Man Utd? They were utterly dominant, and that performance should give them plenty of confidence heading into the final stretch of the season. Their home form looks bad on paper (W2 D2 L5), but four of their defeats came against the current top four, while their draws came against Chelsea and United.
Brighton represents a another tough opponent, but the Seagulls aren't the scary proposition they were at the start of the season. Roberto De Zerbi's side are defensively vulnerable are continue to be without some key attacking players, so I fancy the Bees to get the win here.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/4 | Draw 5/1 | Away 17/2
This bet could go horrendously, but I just can't pass up backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS at above 2/1 here. I don't think I've gone mad.
Yes, Villa's defence is unpredictable, but let's not forget that they kept clean sheets in back-to-back games against City and Arsenal earlier in the season, so they are capable of keeping things very tight.
The main reason I'm leaning unders is due to just how poor City have looked in attack of late. Barring the Manchester derby against one of the worst United teams we've seen in years, Pep's side have found creating chances and scoring goals rather tough.
Across their last seven league games, City have scored just nine goals and conceded just three, with Under 2.5 Goals landing in six of those seven.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 47
- Newcastle 3-2 Everton
- N Forest 1-1 Fulham
- West Ham 2-2 Tottenham
- Arsenal 4-1 Luton
- Brentford 2-1 Brighton
- Man City 1-0 Aston Villa
Odds correct at 2100 BST (31/3/24)
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