Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Matchday 30
- Jake Osgathorpe is +59.7pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Liverpool to win and Over 2.5 goals vs Brighton at 8/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Chelsea to score 3+ goals vs Burnley at 11/10 (Betfair)
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals in Man City vs Arsenal at 11/10 (General)
1pt Heung-min Son 1+ assist in Spurs vs Luton at 12/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime in Brentford vs Man Utd at 12/1 (bet365)
Not a good weekend tipping in this column last time out, but it was two weeks ago and no one remembers so let's move swiftly past it.
The March international break is a bad one that halts the building momentum of teams and the anticipation of fans as we enter the run-in, so it's incredibly pleasing that it's over, and we have some good contests to entertain us as we welcome back the Premier League, none bigger than Arsenal's trip to Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest's point deduction during the break has thrown the relegation fight even more wide open, so it really is all to play for as we turn for home.
A reminder that this weekend's Super 6 jackpot is a whopping £1,000,000, and you can find my predictions for the free-to-play game at the bottom of this article.
Liverpool vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 6/1
Liverpool are good at home under Jurgen Klopp. There's some breaking news for you. 'Just how good?', I hear you ask, well they have won 96 of their last 128 home league games, losing just seven - that's a 75% win rate and a 5% loss rate at Anfield stretching back to the start of 2017.
It is worth mentioning that six of those defeats came in their injury-stricken, behind-closed-doors COVID season, with Leeds the only team to win at Anfield in front of a crowd. Goals usually follow too, with LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND OVER 2.5 GOALS landing in 72% of their home wins over the last seven years.
This season, 10 of their 14 home league games this season have seen this bet cop, no surprise given they are averaging 2.99 xGF per game in front of their own fans.
Brighton's away form is troubling too, losing five of their last eight in all competitions, winning only against Sheffield United (twice) and Championship side Stoke. Seven of those eight games have gone over 2.5 goals, while the Seagulls have shipped 18 goals in that time.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Manchester City vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 17/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 16/5
Manchester City have had Arsenal's number at the Etihad for a long, long time. They have won the last eight times they have hosted the Gunners, last losing in 2015, and they have scored 3+ times in five of those wins.
Obviously, this Arsenal team is much better than those previous iterations, especially defensively.
They are co-leaders with City in terms of xGA per game this season, but away from home their figure of 0.82 comfortably leads the league. That solid foundation means they have a great chance of getting a result at the Etihad, and with two strong defensive sides meeting, UNDER 2.5 GOALS appeals.
The reverse game ended 1-0 to Arsenal with the pair combining for just 0.87 xG, while both of City's meetings with fellow title rival Liverpool ended 1-1, as did Arsenal's trip to Anfield, highlighting how the games at the top that could decide the title have been cagey low-scoring affairs this season.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Chelsea vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Away 17/2
Are Chelsea finally beginning to find some consistency? That's a question we have asked multiple times throughout this season, with it always being a case of one step forward and two steps back for the Blues this term.
But, their recent run of results - W5 D3 (in 90 minutes) - suggests we may be able to answer 'yes' to that first question. They've mostly beaten sides they should beat during that run, with the draws coming against Manchester City, Liverpool (Carabao Cup) and at Brentford.
More impressively for Mauricio Pochettino's mob is that they appear to have found a consistent scoring streak, netting 18 times in their six matches against sides not challenging for the Premier League title, so the 11/10 available for CHELSEA TO SCORE 3+ GOALS this weekend appeals.
They have looked far more fluid in attack of late, with it no coincidence this upturn has occurred since Nicolas Jackson returned from AFCON duty, and the Blues should put Burnley to the sword here. The Clarets have conceded 3+ times in four of their last five away league games.
Score prediction: Chelsea 4-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Tottenham vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/5 | Draw 6/1 | Away 11/1
Goals are likely on the menu here, with Spurs home games averaging 3.42 goals and Luton's away games averaging 3.86.
We should expect no different in this game as both sides chase their respective goals, but with the net likely to bulge numerous times, I've been drawn to a player based bet around HEUNG-MIN SON.
The South Korean is having a great campaign for Spurs, netting 14 goals, but at 5/6 he's short enough in the anytime scorer market, with it being his price for 1+ ASSIST that appeals here.
Tottenham's captain has racked up eight assists this season, but six of those have come in the last 10 league games. In that time he's racked up 5.28 expected assists (xA) working out at 0.57 xA per 90 minutes, providing plenty of chances for his teammates, and at a huge price of 12/5 he has to be back to register another assist.
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 Luton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Aston Villa vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/13 | Draw 16/5 | Away 19/5
Goals and cards should be prevalent here between these two rivals. 11 of Villa's 14 home games have seen Over 2.5 goals land, with it copping in 10 of Wolves 14 away contests, and with Paul Tierney on the whistle (averaged 4.0 cards per game this season), expect entertainment at Villa Park.
Wolves have picked up some notable scalps on the road this season, beating Tottenham and Chelsea, so are capable of bloodying the nose of Villa, but fresh off a break Unai Emery's side can put a stop to a poor run of home form that has seen them lost three of the last four.
Gary O'Neil's side are vulnerable travelers, allowing 1.80 xGA per game, and are missing two vital attacking players for quite some time (top assister Pedro Neto and top scorer Hwang Hee-chan), so Villa can edge to victory here.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Brentford vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 21/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 23/20
Manchester United return to the scene of one of the more embarrassing results and performances of the Erik ten Hag era, where they will no doubt have revenge on the mind, but at the prices I can't go near the Red Devils.
I am again going to knock on the 'United can't defend set-pieces' door and put up a big priced GOALSCORER, this time NATHAN COLLINS.
As hammered before on these pages, United are terrible from dead-ball situations, the fourth worst in the league according to expected goals (12.3 xGA). Brentford are second (13.1 xGF) only to Everton (15.6) for expected goals created from set-pieces, and the Toffees cause so many problems a few weeks ago when visiting Old Trafford, and when we were on James Tarkowski.
He managed three shots equating to 0.32 xGF from set-pieces, while as a team Everton mustered eight shots from such situations equating to 0.95 xGF. Brentford should carry a similar level of threat, especially at home, and Collins can be the beneficiary given been on the end of four big chances (0.35 xG+) this season, averaging 0.09 xG per 90.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 46
- Tottenham 3-1 Luton
- Chelsea 4-1 Burnley
- Aston Villa 2-1 Wolves
- Brentford 2-2 Manchester United
- Liverpool 3-1 Brighton
- Manchester City 1-1 Arsenal
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (27/03/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Super 6 tips: How is Jake getting on this season?
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
