Title-deciding Premier League matches are not supposed to be so one-sided.
Manchester City obliterated Arsenal on Wednesday evening in a 4-1 victory that could have been five or six before half-time, and in doing so have gone within 11 matches of winning all three of the Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup.
The first of those is almost certainly theirs. City can afford to win just five of their final seven and still claim the title even if Arsenal, now winless in four, keep a 100% record from here on in.
Their eight-point lead, sustained for so much of the season, has evaporated and all of a sudden we must rewrite the story of City’s campaign and how they have got to this point.
All that talk of struggling to adapt to Erling Haaland, of Pep Guardiola going too strong on a certain type of playmaker, of overthinking things, of handing some of his fringe players to his protégé Mikel Arteta - none of it was right in the end.
Will Man City win the treble? (odds via Sky Bet)
- Man City to win Premier League & FA Cup - 4/11
- Man City to win Premier League & Champions League - 8/11
- Man City to win FA Cup & Champions League - 11/10
- Man City to win Premier League, FA Cup & Champions League - 5/4
- Man City not to win a trophy (excludes Community Shield) - 66/1
- Man City to win a trophy (excludes Community Shield) - 1/2500
Odds correct BEFORE Man City's win at Fulham
(To be updated when market is live)
In fact, the win over Arsenal was arguably one of the most complete performances of the Guardiola era and should they indeed win the treble, this Man City team would be one of the all-time greats.
How Man City beat Arsenal
What we saw on Wednesday night went against so much of what we’ve come to expect from a Man City team. They went direct to Haaland. They built out in a flat back four, abandoning the 3-2 build-up system used for most of the season. They attacked vertically and quickly behind Arsenal’s high press. None of that was ordinary and credit should go to Guardiola for getting one of his over-thinking episodes so right.
Arsenal simply did not understand how to defend it. Pressing so hard is always a risk with Haaland lurking on Rob Holding, but it was made significantly harder by Arteta’s 4-3-3 formation that left Thomas Partey alone at the base of midfield.
As Arsenal pushed onto the defenders, and with Martin Odegaard and Granit Xhaka going man-for-man on Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan, Kevin De Bruyne was left to drift away from Partey to receive the ball in space.
This is what happened for the crucial early opener and it was a pattern repeated throughout the first half.
But in Arsenal’s defence, they could not have anticipated the use of Kyle Walker and Manuel Akanji as traditional full-backs; they could not have foreseen the danger posed by the maverick Guardiola going so rogue he ended up back at round pegs in round holes.
The normalisation of the build-up play meant Arsenal’s wingers were forced high onto the full-backs, increasing the space between that first wave of Arsenal pressure and Partey – all alone and flailing at the base.
Man City’s 3-2 build-up and adapting to Haaland
It was a tactical anomaly, in almost every way, including Haaland regularly tearing through the centre with De Bruyne – a sight we expected to see more of after the Norwegian was signed, but has been largely denied by the low blocks that Man City’s opponents tend to deploy.
To cope with that barricade while Haaland stands languidly in the centre, Guardiola has had to change how Man City play.
The first, widely-documented, part is using a 3-2 to build out from the back with such regularity (and cultural cut-through) that the media have now taken to listing Man City’s starting formation as a back three.
This is partly a solution to so often facing a deeper 4-4-2 (the ‘M’ shape means the wide centre-back has a passing angle back inside, even when two strikers try to block the passing lane), but it also helps create a front five that can include two wide wingers and two playmakers remaining close to Haaland.
In other words, Haaland has close support centrally but Man City lose nothing from the flanks.
It has helped enormously that Jack Grealish has enjoyed a renaissance in 2023, and his ability to slow things down – with Riyad Mahrez doing the same thing on the other side – has retained Man City’s overall possession and territorial control despite losing the false nine.
By taking so many touches out wide, Grealish and Mahrez allow their team-mates to shuffle up the pitch, rather than become decompressed by looking for early Haaland runs.
'Foolish not to back City to win the treble'
It took a while to find this solution, but now that it’s here, Man City perhaps look better than ever.
And if that wasn’t ominous enough, Haaland was exceptional dropping deep to link play against Arsenal. Just when we thought Man City adapting to Haaland meant they had reached a new peak, it looks like Haaland is on the verge of adapting to Guardiola football.
Manchester United, Real Madrid and a Milan club are all that stand in their way of a historic treble.
On this form, after their successful adaptation, and after a 4-1 win over Arsenal that, terrifyingly, went against the grain to prove their unrivalled versatility, it would be foolish not to back Man City to win it all.
