It reflects the strength and historical dominance of Pep Guardiola’s team that Manchester City remain favourites to win the 2022/23 Premier League title despite trailing Arsenal by seven points as we approach the halfway stage.
Ironically, Arsenal are underrated by the bookies because they don’t quite appreciate just how brilliant Guardiola really is.
His influence on the game has been so great that it only takes a couple of years as his assistant manager to become one of the most sophisticated and dynamic coaches in the world; to become his chief rival in the Premier League.
Mikel Arteta has earned that description. Arsenal are immaculately choreographed both on and off the ball and the tactical depth is such that losing players and losing goals cannot knock them off their stride.
Arsenal showing newfound resilience
Boxing Day’s 3-1 victory over West Ham was an important moment signalling Arsenal’s capacity to retain form during the World Cup break but also a newfound resilience.
Replacing the injured Gabriel Jesus with Eddie Nketiah and going 1-0 down did not affect their composure or the metronomic rhythms because, like a Guardiola team, the structure’s complexity is more important than an individual or even the game state.
What has defined Man City over the last six years is the machine-like repetition of the manager’s tactical principles. Arsenal are a carbon copy. And so, in Arteta, Guardiola has created a Frankenstein’s monster; the architect of his own potential downfall this season.
The automatisms of Arteta’s football are now clear to see but there have been encouraging flashes throughout a tenure that has lurched from organisation to chaos, from restrictive formations to individualism, but one that has eventually settled into the patterns that were always intended.
Now that Arteta finally has the squad that he wants the style is pure Pep: a 4-3-3 with free eights, lopsided wingers, and interior full-backs; with swirling possession football and hard counter-pressing.
Brighton 2-4 Arsenal
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 31, 2022
xG: 1.34-3.36
Emphatic from the Gunners. Seven points clear.#BHAARS #AFC #Arsenal pic.twitter.com/lBA7n3e6qx
More specifically their flowing football revolves around the distribution and defensive sweeping of Thomas Partey, supported by Granit Xhaka excelling in a clearly-defined role with simple and repetitive passing options available to him.
From that base, and a Vidic-Ferdinand style centre-back partnership of Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba, Arsenal build the majority of their attacks through Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard interacting in the right-centre space. But it is the sheer variety of attacking styles, and the myriad combinations across the pitch, that has created Man City-like consistency of performances and results.
Arsenal are a direct team when they need to be and their verticality begins at the back; Saliba and Gabriel are in the Premier League top ten for carries this season, with both driving forward on the ball to break lines and give Arsenal control. Arsenal have also completed the most dribbles (133), with Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, and Saka all in the top 10.
Off the ball, Arsenal are even more impressive. They rank third for passes per defensive action (PPDA) (11.2) and for total high turnovers (27), and this hard-pressing philosophy has ensured Arsenal can squeeze teams back and prevent chances on the counter-attack.
They have allowed just 12.9 xG - by far the lowest in the top flight - and only Newcastle have conceded fewer than their 12 goals.
Add to this the 6.85 xG they have created from set-pieces this season, the third highest, and it becomes clear that the range and depth of Arsenal’s creativity from within Arteta’s perfectly-drilled possession football means they deserve to be considered favourites to win the title.
Are Manchester City really that good?
The usual repost to these numbers is that Arsenal lack squad depth (refuted slightly by Nketiah’s strong performance against West Ham and by the fact Oleksandar Zinchenko, Fabio Vieira, and Emile Smith Rowe have played very little football so far) and that Man City still come out on top in so many of these metrics.
But the talent of this Man City squad is overstated. As Arteta embraces the best of Guardiola’s principles, Guardiola veers slightly into caricature.
His decision to sell Raheem Sterling, Zinchenko, and Jesus has backfired, not only because it has strengthened a title rival but because it has stripped away some of the variation in City’s play, leaving the front line looking too similar in style.
Brentford and Aston Villa took points against City by sitting deep and blocking the middle, a simple idea that used to invite too much pressure but increasingly nullifies City’s samey playmakers. Crystal Palace (who went 2-0 up), Newcastle (who went 3-1 up) and Fulham (who lost to a 94th-minute penalty) all came close with a similar strategy.
Without a Sterling or a Leroy Sane, City can lack penetration, and without the tactics-shifting Zinchenko or Jesus to come off the bench Guardiola is largely forced to double down on the existing approach even if it is not working.
Haaland integration has come at a cost
To make matters worse, Erling Haaland’s lack of work outside the penalty area has forced City’s eights to get too close to him, disconnecting them from Rodri and creating more sluggish football, while the Norwegian’s lack of pressing from the front has made them more vulnerable to being countered – hence why they are conceding 0.3 goals per game more than last season.
In short, Guardiola’s tried-and-tested methods have been radically abandoned with the purchase of Haaland and sale of key players. It’s just that the majority of people are yet to cotton on.
This might seem like an overly dramatic interpretation of Man City’s performances this season, but they have been rather lucky to play multiple mid-table sides when they were at a low ebb.
They also have eight of their 10 ‘big six’ matches still to come while their players were fielded for 4,633 minutes in Qatar, far more than any other club, meaning they can anticipate playing catch-up in a significantly more challenging second half of the campaign.
Arsenal face Man City at The Emirates on February 15, before which City play Spurs twice and travel to Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge across an eight-game stretch. It is certainly likely, then, that Guardiola’s side will have fallen even further behind in the title race before that definitive six-pointer.
City are weakened, vulnerable, and facing an uphill battle, while Arsenal look slick, robust, and disciplined.
They should be considered favourites to win the title. For that, and on both counts, Gunners fans can thank Guardiola.
- Stats correct before New Year's Eve fixtures
