Tom Carnduff previews the Premier League's Golden Boot, with one short-priced fancy alongside four long shots at enticing odds.
Football betting tips: Premier League Top Goalscorer
2.5pts e.w. Romelu Lukaku to be Premier League top goalscorer at 5/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Kai Havertz to be Premier League top goalscorer at 66/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Michail Antonio to be Premier League top goalscorer at 80/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Richarlison to be Premier League top goalscorer at 100/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Rodrigo to be Premier League top goalscorer at 125/1 (BetVictor 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Writing this preview has not been the most straightforward piece of work.
The constant speculation over Manchester City and Harry Kane, the late arrival of Romelu Lukaku at Chelsea and even the pie in the sky idea that Lionel Messi could land in the Premier League, rather than ultimately join PSG, has all been rather annoying.
As promised, here is the brief addendum - 'Golden Boot Extra' or 'Part II' - which now includes one shorter-priced fancy to go along with our initial longshots; they can still be found within this preview.
Who will be the Premier League's top goalscorer?
There were two strikers - Kane and Mohamed Salah - who were clear favourites in the market but a recent big-money arrival has added a third name to the list.
Chelsea have finally secured a goalscorer with the £97.5m acquisition of ROMELU LUKAKU from Inter. He returns to the club following an unsuccessful spell that saw him depart for Everton in 2014.
Lukaku has since gone on to establish himself as one of Europe's top strikers and he could be the man that fires Chelsea back to the title. With creative players like Kai Havertz and Mason Mount supporting - alongside Timo Werner who regularly contributes assists - Lukaku should have plenty of opportunities to score and that's outlined in the fact that Chelsea players saw higher Expected Assists (xA) than actual assists last season.
Mount's five assists came from an xA of 10.04 in the Premier League. Christian Pulisic had two from 2.95 while Hakim Ziyech finished with three from 4.05. All three were creating more opportunities than the top figures suggest and yet the team were unable to convert.
Lukaku comes into this Chelsea team on the back of a campaign that brought 24 goals from 36 Serie A appearances. His efforts were from an Expected Goals (xG) number of 22.40 while his 11 assists also demonstrates how heavily involved he was in front of goal.
This is a creative Chelsea team and a striker as good as Lukaku should thrive. Even if he misses the opening couple of matches of the season, he should have enough to be the top goalscorer by the end of it.
How many goals are needed to win the Premier League Golden Boot?
Recent history has shown that the low 20s are enough to win the Premier League's Golden Boot award. Both Kane and Jamie Vardy won with 23 while there was a three-way tie on 22 in 2018/19. Prior to that, significantly more goals were needed.
- 2020/21: Harry Kane - 23
- 2019/20: Jamie Vardy - 23
- 2018/19: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; Sadio Mane; Mohamed Salah - 22
- 2017/18: Mohamed Salah - 32
- 2016/17: Harry Kane - 29
- 2015/16: Harry Kane - 25
The bookmakers offering each-way terms on the top goalscorer market are paying out on four places. This is worth keeping in mind when it comes to any bigger-priced selections and the following have been the tallies of the fourth-highest scorer in the division across the last six seasons:
- 2020/21: Patrick Bamford; Son Heung-min - 17
- 2019/20: Raheem Sterling - 20
- 2018/19: Sergio Aguero - 21
- 2017/18: Jamie Vardy - 20
- 2016/17: Sergio Aguero; Romelu Lukaku - 20
- 2015/16: Romelu Lukaku - 18
Who will win the Premier League Golden Boot?
The positive about the top goalscorer market is how we often we see outsiders towards the top of the charts at the end of a season.
Patrick Bamford, Danny Ings and Jamie Vardy are three examples of players not viewed among the favourites who returned place money across the past four seasons - it's a fairly common occurrence.
What it does mean is that there is potential for a big winner if we target the four places available - while also having the possibility of winning the award if they can reach the mid-20s mark.
Starting with the biggest price selection, and a player who could go under the radar is RODRIGO at Leeds. Best odds of 125/1 are available that he scores the most which also means each-way value of around 31/1 if he can get into the places. All eyes with be on Bamford after a strong season but Leeds' record signing can play his part.
His Premier League season brought seven goals but it was a largely disrupted campaign for the Spain international. Covid and injury prevented him from having an extended run in the side but he finished the campaign in strong fashion - four goals came in his last four outings.
While Bamford is the starting striker and Rodrigo plays behind, Marcelo Bielsa has opted to start Rodrigo further forward in the past and there will be occasions where that happens. The main thing is having a number of games under his belt and picking up where he left off with his end of season form.
Even if his final two seasons with Valencia were low-scoring, his xG numbers highlight that he should have had more. The 2019/20 LaLiga season was four goals from 7.41 xG while the campaign before saw eight goals from 13.97 xG.
It demonstrates the opportunities he does have to score and in a side keen on attack, he will enjoy chances to strike this time around. While Bamford can enjoy another positive season, I'd be siding with the Spaniard in a season match bet between the two.
The next selection feels somewhat risky given the injury history but there is huge potential if he can stay fit for the large majority of the season. MICHAIL ANTONIO is 80/1 and West Ham will be looking to him to fire them to another good campaign.
He's netted ten in each of his last two Premier League seasons but missed 12 games through injury in 2020/21 and 14 in 2019/20. Had he been involved in those contests, playing near enough the full 38, we could have expected his figure to be at 15 or above.
Antonio has also underperformed his xG figure in his last three league campaigns. His 10 last season came from 12.59, with 10 from 13.47 in 2019/20 and six from 6.67 in 2018/19.
Recent injury history explains why a price as big as 80/1 is available - alongside the 66/1 in places - and West Ham's Europa League involvement will see further games to their 38 league outings. However, if he can stay fit, that best price will look very generous.
He's already proven himself as a Premier League goalscorer but hasn't had the chance to enjoy a prolific season. Considering how he finished the final five games of the season - scoring three goals - we can hope he can take that fitness into 2021/22 and keep his availability levels high.
While Dominic Calvert-Lewin has established himself as Everton's main striker, RICHARLISON's rate of scoring has gone somewhat under the radar. So much so that odds as big as 100/1 are available on him finishing as the Premier League's top goalscorer.
It's also easy to forget that he is only 24 years old and will continue to get better as time progresses. He may have only scored once for Brazil in the Copa America but his xG figure standing at a significant 3.68 shows that it could have been a lot more from his seven appearances.
He did bounce back from Copa America disappointment by finished as the top goalscorer at the Olympics - scoring five from six appearances to help Brazil win gold.
It's a theme throughout Richarlison's past 12 months. He may have netted seven in the Premier League in 2020/21 but that came from an xG figure of 10.18. In 2019/20, the forward scored 13 from an xG of 10.73.
An xG per game figure of 0.32 came from 33 appearances and he can build upon that in an Everton side that could be floating around the lower European places. It's the unknown of a team who have a new manager at the helm but it could be a good one for the Toffees - led by Richarlison hitting form in front of goal.
A concern with this selection is that potential arrival of Lukaku at Chelsea but - even if they do bring in a striker - KAI HAVERTZ's form throughout the latter stages of last season and in the Euros suggests that this could be a campaign filled with goals.
He struggled to adapt to a big money transfer initially - a global pandemic makes moving to a different country difficult enough alongside contracting Covid in the early stages - but he grew as the season progressed and clearly benefitted from Thomas Tuchel's arrival as head coach.
Havertz scored three in his final four Premier League starts of last season while also netting the winner in the Champions League final against Manchester City. Tuchel sees the potential in playing him as a centre forward and he went at better than a goal-a-game rate when playing there in the latter stages of his Leverkusen career.
He also underperformed his xG across competitions. Four goals came from 6.33 xG in the Premier League while his two for Germany were from an xG figure of 2.40. In the Champions League, his single goal should have been more with 2.88 xG in Europe's top club competition.
Lukaku's arrival could cause an issue but we can draw confidence from his showings in the 2018/19 Bundesliga season. Despite his young age, he scored 17 alongside an additional three in the Europa League. The large majority of that campaign saw him float between the central midfield, attacking midfield and right wing positions.
In the disrupted 2019/20 season, Havertz scored 18 across all competitions. It shows his potential if he's given an extended run in the team - something that should happen this time around.
Odds correct at 1535 BST (08/08/21)
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